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Greece and the troika have apparently come to an agreement to extend Greece’s current debt repayment program for another 4 months. Both sides are claiming victory in the stand-off, but it is hard to tell which side had the advantage. Greece still has to submit a plan to conform to the repayment program on Monday, and those details will tell us how many concessions (if any) Greece was able to gain. The British-based blog, Open Europe, has a very succinct overview of where Greece and the troika stood firm and made concessions. The German Finance Minister, Schaeuble, made the following comment, however, which gives a rough idea of how the troika regards the outcome: “Greeks certainly will have a difficult time to explain the deal to their voters.”
Curiously, the agreement was reached even as the number of Germans living below the poverty line has reached the highest level ever recorded in the reunified Germany. However, even as Germany pushes very hard for austerity in Greece, the Washington Post suggests that “In certain cases, unemployment benefits may indeed be higher than salaries.” Moreover, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development did a study of hours worked in various countries in 2011. Compare the average hours worked in Greece and Germany. The key to understanding this paradox is that Germany can offer strong welfare benefits even while its workers work fewer hours because its workers are more productive than Greek workers. If this conclusion is true, then austerity is not the solution to Greece’s problems. The solution lies in making Greek workers more productive.
There are about 20,000 foreign fighters who have gone to live in the Islamic State, of which about 550 are women. It is difficult to determine the motives of these foreign fighters, but The Guardian has been able to interview some who have thought about going to the Islamic State. The results are suggestive but hardly conclusive in such a small sample.
M.J. Rosenberg is a former member of the American-Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC), one of the strongest supporters of Israel in the US. He has written a very thoughtful (and very critical) essay on the possible outcomes of the planned speech by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to the US Congress. Perhaps the most important criticism made by Rosenberg is this comment:
Netanyahu’s speech to Congress, coupled with his statement that he represents all Jews, threatens to upset the whole applecart that has been constructed since 1950. By doing so, he is undermining Israel’s support from the community that is the foundation of Israel’s strong political position in the United States….If American Jews feel that they are being forced to choose between the United States and Israel, there can be little doubt that they will choose the country they live in and to which they have always been devoted. Netanyahu is playing with fire when he even hints at such a choice.
Rosenberg should be taken seriously. We will have to see how the speech, if it is given, is received on 3 March.
Two new social science studies (one conducted by two of our colleagues from the University of Massachusetts) have probed the extent to which wealthy donors to political campaigns can influence voting in Congress. The studies are sobering. They indicate that the votes of Congresspeople correlate more strongly with the views of their donors more than the do with the views of their constituents. Moreover, the studies found that the views of large donors tend to be more extreme than the views of even partisans of the representatives.
It appears as if Germany has rejected Greece’s most recent proposal for a debt deal. The Greeks are clearly getting worn down and they have begun to make concessions that had been completely rejected by the new Syriza government even last week. But it is hard to appreciate the depth of Greek economic misery under the current austerity programs. All the available data suggest that Greece is going through an economic downturn that dwarfs even the misery of the Great Depression in the 1930s. But the Germans remain adamant.
The disintegration of the cease-fire in Ukraine leaves the US and Europe in a difficult situation. Neither wish to declare the cease-fire dead because saying so would require a response by them. So both are silent on the matter and assessing the situation. But the situation in Ukraine clearly indicates that the separatists rebels are clearly taking more territory. The map below indicate how the situation has changed between last September and 14 February. The rebels now control Debaltseve. Europe and the US have to figure out a meaningful response to the breaking of the cease-fire or they risk losing credibility, not only with respect to Russia but to other states which have commitments from both.
São Paolo is one of the great cities in the world. Its metropolitan region has about 20 million people and it is the largest city in Brazil. Brazil is also endowed with 1/8th of the world’s fresh water. Yet the city is running out of fresh water due to drought and mismanagement. In some parts of the city water is being rationed and is unavailable in certain parts of the day. The situation is expected only to worsen, and the scarcity of water will undoubtedly set off political turmoil that will be difficult to contain. It is hard to imagine how so many people will be able to take care of their daily responsibilities without reliable and available water.
The Guardian has an excellent article with the title”When Will Greece Run Out of Money?” It is a very good (but rough) estimate about who Greece owes money to and how long it can hold out without substantial assistance from the troika. The Guardian’s answer to its own question is:
According to figures released on Tuesday by the Bank of Greece, the finance ministry estimates that cash reserves will run out on 24 February. Using the reserves of government entities to cover short-term needs, however, the problem could be delayed until March.
Note, however, that the current agreement lasts until 28 February. So something has to give within the next 10 days.
In an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, State Department representative, Marie Harf, made the following statement:
“We’re killing a lot of them, and we’re going to keep killing more of them. So are the Egyptians, so are the Jordanians – they’re in this fight with us…But we cannot win this war by killing them. We cannot kill our way out of this war. We need in the medium to longer term to go after the root causes that leads people to join these groups, whether it’s a lack of opportunity for jobs, …”
Harf is, of course, absolutely correct. But the reaction to her comments (I suspect fueled by a great deal of anti-female sentiment) in parts of the media was absolute ridicule. It is hard to imagine how progress can be made when intelligent ideas are not treated with the seriousness they deserve.
The cease-fire in Ukraine has essentially collapsed. Russian President Putin has told Kiev to let its soldiers to surrender to pro-Russian separatists in a statement that was a declaration of war more than a humanitarian offer. There really was no cease-fire at all in the city of Debaltseve and the rebels stated that they had captured “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers in the battle. The brevity of the cease-fire suggests that it was never a serious option for the separatists.
Economic theory suggests that globalization should over time reduce inequality in the world, but empirical evidence suggests that that consequence is not occurring. Harvard researchers have traced the growth of economic inequality in the world and suggest that inequality results primarily from the movement of skilled workers from poorer countries to richer countries. In essence, globalization clusters highly skilled workers, leaving pools of poorer paid, unskilled workers in noncompetitive positions.
Greece will be negotiating with the troika today, and the outcome of these discussions remains unknown. The fear within the troika is that any outcome that gives Greece significant relief will lead to “contagion.” Contagion refers to a movement in other struggling countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and, to some extent, France) to follow Greece in demanding relaxation from austerity. Right now, the governments of Spain, Portugal, and Ireland are publicly supporting a hard line, but there is substantial evidence that the publics in these countries are actually sympathetic to the Greek position. Contagion also refers to the possibility of private bondholders of sovereign debt may become fearful of other countries refusing to pay back their bonds in full. Fear is a difficult condition to measure accurately, so the bargaining position of the troika is somewhat problematic.
The talks between the Greeks and the troika collapsed after 4 hours as Greece rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its current arrangement. The language after the collapse was acrimonious, and money is fleeing from Greece as depositors in Greek banks fear that the banks cannot survive.
Currently, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to give a speech to Congress on 3 March. It appears, however, that relations between US President Obama and Netanyahu are worse than we imagined. The US has decided to limit the amount of information it gives to Israel about the negotiations with Iran because it believes that Israel has been leaking selective information about the negotiations in an effort to derail them. If this Washington Post report is accurate and the Israeli position is that Iran cannot have any nuclear enrichment capability at all, then there is no way to avoid a confrontation between the US and Israel. Iran will never give up its right to enrich uranium, a right that is guaranteed by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
There were rallies in Athens as Greeks tried to bolster support to Prime Minister Tsipras before the renewal of negotiations with the troika. Indeed, the rhetoric from Tsipras seemed to harden over the weekend as the Greek government began to believe that it had the upper hand because of its weakness. There is a real tactical advantage in any negotiation when the threat of collapse by one party is highly plausible. The real issue now is how much the troika fears a Greek exit from the eurozone. The protesters in Athens made clear their sentiments toward the troika:
There were two violent incidents in Copenhagen, Denmark, that mimicked the recent shootings in Paris. The target of the first incident was the Danish cartoonist, Lars Vilks, who has been a center of controversy since he published cartoons ridiculing the Prophet Mohammed in 2007. For Vilks, the issue is solely an issue of the freedom of speech. The Guardian, however, links the event to a much broader number of issues, including the discrimination against both Judaism and Islam.
Anti-religious feelings were also apparent in Libya as 21 Egyptian Copts were beheaded by the Islamic State in Libya. The situation in Libya is incredibly chaotic and has been since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddaffi in 2011. Egypt has a strong interest in Libyan internal affairs, and President Sisi is highly concerned about the rise of Islamic militants in the neighboring state. The possibility that the conflict in Libya could expand regionally is quite significant, and would lead a number of states, including the US and European states, to become more heavily involved.
We’ve all had a lesson in propaganda, even though most of us were completely unaware of the attempt. The Washington Free Beacon published photos provided to it by Senator Inhofe (R-OK) proving that Russians soldiers were fighting in eastern Ukraine. Senator Inhofe has been joined by Senators Cruz (R-TX), Cornyn (R-TZ), Rubio (R-FL), and Cotton (R-AR) in pressing US President Obama to provide lethal aid to the Ukrainian government. Unfortunately, the photographs were all from the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. The Free Beacon has retracted its story, but who knows how many people were influenced by the original photos. One of the photographs and its original is reproduced below:
The US has weighed in on the dispute between Greece and the “Troika.” Greece wants the austerity programs loosened in order to stimulate greater economic growth, but the troika, motivated primarily by Germany, has refused to make any adjustments. There will be more meetings on Monday, and it is difficult to say which side will prevail. But the US position is that the unwillingness to reach a compromise is jeopardizing the health of the global economy.
Last Thursday South African President, Jacob Zuma, delivered his state of the nation address to the Parliament. Unfortunately, the speech was delivered to a half-empty gathering after a brawl broke out between members of Zuma’s African National Congress and members of the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters. The EFF charges Zuma with corruption, charges that are highly plausible. The South African economy is not doing very well and many South Africans believe that the economic problems are due to poor governance.
In 1916, US President Woodrow Wilson campaigned on the pledge: “He Kept Us Out of War.” When World War I ended in 1918, more than 100,000 American soldiers died in the fighting in Europe.
On 24 October 1964, US President Lyndon Johnson stated at the University of Akron:
“We are not about to send American boys 9 or 10,000 miles away from home to do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves.”
In 1973, when the US pulled out its troops from Vietnam, more than 58,000 US soldiers had died in Asia.
On 11 February 2015, US President Obama said:
“The resolution we’ve submitted today does not call for the deployment of U.S. ground combat forces to Iraq or Syria. It is not the authorization of another ground war, like Afghanistan or Iraq….As I’ve said before, I’m convinced that the United States should not get dragged back into another prolonged ground war in the Middle East. That’s not in our national security interest and it’s not necessary for us to defeat ISIL. Local forces on the ground who know their countries best are best positioned to take the ground fight to ISIL — and that’s what they’re doing.”
Eventually, we will find out what “enduring offensive combat operations” means.
An Argentine prosecutor has asked a federal judge to investigate the role of the Argentine President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, for her possible role in the cover-up of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994. The suspicions of some is that Kirchner cover-up the Iranian role in the blast in exchange for better deals on the price of oil. At this time, there is really no public evidence supporting the charge. But some believe that the previous prosecutor, Albert Nisman, was killed because he had uncovered such evidence.
Scientists have estimated that there were about 8 million metric tons of plastic in the world’s oceans in 2010, and are predicting that that number will rise to 9 million tons by the end of this year. The number is staggering and the effects on the health of the oceans and of all life in the oceans are devastating.
The negotiations in Minsk, Belarus for a cease-fire in Ukraine produced a glimmer of hope. The agreement between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by Germany and France, stipulates that a cease-fire should begin on Sunday, that heavy weapons be pulled back from the cease-fire line, and that greater autonomy be given to the eastern provinces populated by a majority of Russian-speaking people. Indeed, the cease-fire terms are consistent with what is truly necessary for an end to the violence. The critical question is how seriously both Moscow and Kiev believe that an agreement is in their interests. Time will tell.
Apparently, the meteorologists are predicting yet another snow storm this weekend for New England. It is truly the winter of our discontent. But do the snowstorms refute the claims that the earth is warming? Hardly. And the explanation for the link between warmer temperatures and snowstorms in New England is actually quite interesting.
Indian politics got quite interesting as the Common Man Party (Aam Aadmi Party) won convincingly in elections in Delhi, giving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a significant defeat. Arvind Kejriwal will be the new leader of Delhi, and there is little question that his personal charisma was an important factor in the rout. But the election also raises questions about the depth of the BJP’s victory just recently. The victory of the Hindu nationalist party was overwhelming a few months ago, but perhaps its policies have proven to be too radical for India.
US President Obama has submitted a draft Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) to the Congress. The AUMF is a strange legislative creature that acts as a substitute for the Declaration of War required by the US Constitution. It was developed because of the War Powers Act that Congress passed in 1973 in an attempt to reassert Congressional authority in matters of war that had been blurred by the way the Vietnam War had been conducted. The Act requires that:
…the President, upon sending troops into military action, must notify Congress within 48 hours that he has done so. The Resolution also forbids military personnel from remaining in a state of conflict for more than 60 days (including an additional 30 days for withdrawal). After that, the President must seek an additional authorization from Congress or a formal declaration of war.
The most recent AUMF was passed in 2002 to give President Bush the authority to use military force against al Qaida which had attacked the US on 11 September 2001. That AUMF is actually still in force, and will not be repealed by the mere passage of a new AUMF for President Obama in the actions against the Islamic State. The lack of a repeal is important because the AUMF of 2002 contains none of the restraints outlined in Obama’s AUMF. The US will therefore have two AUMFs–one open-ended and one restrictive–and it is not clear which one is fully operative.
The restraints in Obama’s AUMF are two. First, is does not authorize “enduring offensive ground combat operations.” The President indicated that this restraint means that there will not be extensive use of troops actively engaged in combat. Unfortunately, I suspect that no one can really define what the phrase means. So it may not be an effective check against a deep commitment of combat troops.
Second, the AUMF has a limit of three years. That limit is certainly better than Bush’s AUMF (which has no time limit), but three years is a very long time to be involved in military action. And military operations have a tendency to generate their own momentum. Note also that Obama’s term is up in two years, which means that he has also committed the next President (whoever that may be) to operations against the Islamic State.
Finally, the AUMF does not really address the central issue of the use of force against the Islamic State: whether the US intends to ally itself with Iran in supporting both the governments of Iraq and Syria. The latter issue is critical because that alliance means that the US will be supporting Syrian President Assad (and, indirectly, Russia, which supports Assad). In other words, the US still has to figure out who are its friends and who are its enemies. A strange position for a great power.
The situation in Greece remains unsettled. After five hours of talks, the Greeks and the troika decided to hold additional talks on Monday. There are massively conflicting reports concerning today’s talks. Some reports indicate that progress was made; others suggest that positions have simply hardened.
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