Under a new plan announced by the Obama Administration, the US intends to reduce overall carbon emissions by 32% below 2005 levels by 2030. The plan is ambitious and is certain to provoke an angry backlash among the producers of energy in the country. But President Obama declared that “[w}e are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last generation that can do something about it.” The President clearly wishes to set up a high threshold for the UN climate talks scheduled to be held in Paris in December.
“Signatories include former heads of the Shin Bet security agency, Ami Ayalon and Carmi Gillon; a former deputy director of theMossad intelligence agency, Amiram Levin; the ex-chief of the Atomic Energy Commission Uzi Eilmann; and dozens of former generals and senior officers.”
The petition emphasizes the dangers of possible damage to the US-Israeli alliance by continuing to oppose the deal by pressure on the US Congress.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan was responsible for initiating a peace process with the Kurds early on in his Administration. Recently, however, Erdogan has been playing a double game of fighting both the Islamic State and the Kurds, who are also the enemy of the Islamic State. Erdogan’s policies are fraying the domestic politics of the country, and there are reasons to believe that Turkish civil society is not capable of accommodating these internal pressures for much longer. Civil strife in Turkey would only rattle the regional politics of the Middle East even more.
The Changying Precision Technology Company in Dongguan City, China, has set up a factory that is almost fully roboticized. The factory produces parts for cell phones and once employed 650 people. The factory managers believe that the factory could run on perhaps 20 people. According to TechRepublic:
“The robots have produced almost three times as many pieces as were produced before. According to the People’s Daily, production per person has increased from 8,000 pieces to 21,000 pieces. That’s a 162.5% increase.
“The increased production rate hasn’t come at the cost of quality either. In fact, quality has improved. Before the robots, the product defect rate was 25%, now it is below 5%”
Many other Chinese companies, including Foxconn, which makes most Apple product components, have announced similar initiatives. One can only wonder how this movement will affect workers in China.
German prosecutors are considering treason charges against reporters for an online news service call Netzpolitik. The online service published confidential information about attempts in the German government to increase online surveillance. Those activities hardly seem serious enough to threaten the national security of the Republic, so many are interpreting the move as an attempt to stifle freedom of the press in Germany. Protests against the charges are scheduled for today in Germany,
Israeli forces killed a Palestinian teenager who was protesting against the death of a toddler at the hands of Jewish extremists. There have been about 120 attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in 2015 as the issue of settlements is being pushed to the forefront. The Palestinians are not likely to be protected by the Israeli government. According to Yesh Din, an Israeli human rights organization:
“Only 7.4% of SJ (Samaria and Judea) District Police investigations following complaints from Palestinian victims of offenses committed against them or their property by Israeli civilians result in indictments.”
The Palestinian Authority is referring the matter to the International Criminal Court.
It is difficult to appreciate how powerful some private companies are. We tend to overlook the powerful connections between economic and political power. One way to think about economic power is to compare how many economic resources are available to a political agent. For example, how the size of a corporation compares with the stock market of a state:
An experimental vaccine against the Ebola virus has been tested in Guinea and it appears as if the vaccine is 100% effective. If these tests are valid, then the development of the vaccine would be a tremendous breakthrough against one of the most virulent viruses to affect humans. One can only hope that the resources will be made available so that the vaccine can be widely distributed across affected areas: vaccinations are difficult and expensive in many areas of Africa and the local governments lack the money to conduct such protocols.
A Yale University study has found that about 40% of the world’s population is completely unaware of the problem of climate change. The finding should not be surprising, but it does suggest how far the world is away from reaching a consensus on effective measures to address the issue. Interestingly, people in Latin America seem to be the most aware of the problem of all the regions polled. The variations across regions should provide insights into how best to communicate the dangers of climate change based upon cultural differences.
The Greek debt crisis has highlighted German economic power in stark relief. For many in Europe, Germany has pursued its own interests using the standard of European integration as a cover. The reality is far more complex than a simple replay of “the German problem.” Brendan Simms is Professor in the History of International Relations at Cambridge and has written a very thoughtful essay on what the crisis revealed about the flaws in the integration experiment that allowed German power to increase so dramatically. He concludes by posing scenarios in which the power of Germany can be reconciled to the idea of a united Europe.
The IMF has made it clear that it will not participate in a third Greek bail-out unless there is an “explicit and concrete agreement” to reduce Greece’s total debt burden. It is unlikely that the European Commission and the European Central Bank could find enough money to offer Greece meaningful help without IMF contributions. But those two institutions are adamantly opposed to any debt forgiveness. Given that Greece is also having a difficult time coming up with an acceptable plan, the likelihood of any resolution to the debt situation any time soon is remote. But Greece needs to pay the European Central Bank 3.2 billion euro on 20 August.
Turkey has been launching heavy air strikes against Kurds in Iraq after some initial strikes against the Islamic State. The air strikes end a shaky two-year truce between the Kurds and the Turks, and seems to be an attempt by Prime Minister Erdogan to shore up domestic political support. The Turks claim to make a distinction between Syrian and Iraqi Kurds, but the distinction is largely spurious. By attacking the Kurds the Turks are seriously compromising the US-Kurdish alliance against the Islamic State.
Greece is far from the only debt-troubled state in the system. Puerto Rico, officially a Commonwealth Territory of the United States, has announced that it cannot repay about $72 billion of debt. Interestingly, even though it has borrowed any money from the IMF or any of the insitutions associated with Greece, the solutions offered for its debt crisis are remarkably similar to the austerity program of the troika. The Centennial Group, a private think-tank partially composed of many hedge funds that own Puerto Rico’s debt, has issued a report entitled “For Puerto Rico, There is a Better Way.” Their advice? Lay off teachers and close schools so that the debt can be repaid.
Mullah Mohammad Omar was the leader of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 when the government of that country refused to hand over Osama bin Laden to the United Nations and the United States after the attacks on the US on 11 September 2001. He was an elusive leader and all US attempts to apprehend or kill him during the long war in Afghanistan were futile. We have found out today that Mullah Mohammad Omar died in 2013. His death has led to a split within the Taliban which has complicated attempts to forge a peace agreement in Afghanistan.
Migrants eager to enter Great Britain have stormed the Channel Tunnel leading to increased security in both France and Great Britain in an effort to stem the dangerous flight route. There are thousands of migrants camped out near Calais, France who wish to go to Great Britain since the British do not have national identity cards and it is easier to blend into the British economy. The migrants try to jump on trucks and trains as they pass through the tunnel and many have died. The crisis in the tunnel is the extension of the crisis that exists in the dangerous route across the Mediterranean into Italy.
There is a part of the global economy about which we know very little: the offshore economy that disguises wealth in order to avoid national taxes. There are a large number of sovereign states that have banking laws that defend almost complete secrecy. Because of those laws it is very difficult to estimate the size of this offshore economy. But a new report suggests that this untaxed wealth ranges between $21 and $32 trillion (for comparison purposes, the US economy is about $18 trillion). The loss of the tax revenues associated with the offshore economy is simply staggering.
The existence of the offshore economy has an interesting dynamic on politics. Recent studies have attempted to assess the impact of donor contributions to public policy. The evidence suggests that wealthy donors assess national problems in pretty much the same manner as non-wealthy donors. But wealthy donors favor remedies to those problems which differ a great deal from the policies supported by the non-wealthy. Not surprisingly, the policies favored by the wealthy are usually the ones that are implemented. The chart below shows the fascinating disparity:
Note that the wealthy and the general public are in broad agreement that income inequality is not a prerequisite for America’s prosperity and that current income inequality is too great (the columns on the right). But the wealthy and the general public do not agree that the government should take action to reduce that inequality. A fascinating conclusion.
US President Obama became the first American President to address the meeting of the African Union. The meeting was in Ethiopia and Obama gave a speech that both praised African leaders for the substantial progress their countries have made in recent years but was also highly critical of the corruption that seems to pervade many African politics and economies. He received the most applause when he criticized leaders who stayed too long in office–a pointed reference to the President of Burundi.
French farmers protested last week against lower prices for their products forced by growing imports from other European countries. The French agricultural sector has long been protected by the government: many in the country regard the rural sector to be an important part of French culture. Others regard the farmers are a well-organized political constituency. The protests involve blocking roads and dumping manure in front of shops that sell foreign foods. The protests complicate efforts to stabilize the French economy which has been plagued by high unemployment.
The US Department of State has issued its Trafficking in Persons Report for 2015. The report covers sex trafficking, child sex trafficking, forced labor, bonded servitude, domestic servitude, forced child labor, and child soldiers. The report makes for very grim reading. Modern slavery is pervasive and well-disguised. Unfortunately, it is also tolerated by a very large number of countries and corporations that close their eyes to the practice. The number of prosecutions for the crime are pitifully small.
The criticisms of the nuclear accord with Iran continue to unfold. Many of the criticisms are off-point: they treat the accord as something other than a non-proliferation agreement. Leon Wieseltier is a very prominent critic of the agreement and has written a passionate critique of it in The Atlantic. The main thrust of the critique is quite straightforward:
“This accord will strengthen a contemptible regime. And so I propose—futilely, I know—that now, in the aftermath of the accord, America proceed to weaken it. The conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action should be accompanied by a resumption of our hostility to the Iranian regime and its various forces. Diplomats like to say that you talk with your enemies. They are right. And we have talked with them. But they are still our enemies. This is the hour not for a fresh start but for a renovation of principle. We need to restore democratization to its pride of place among the priorities of our foreign policy and oppress the theocrats in Tehran everywhere with expressions, in word and in deed, of our implacable hostility to their war on their own people.”
Essentially, Wieseltier is suggesting that nothing less than a change of regime is a satisfactory conclusion.
Violence flared up again at the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. The mosque sits on that Muslims regard as the Noble Sanctuary and Jews call the Temple Mount. Violence as been endemic this year as some Jews attempt to pray at the holy site, a practice that was banned by Israeli authorities after the capture of East Jerusalem in the 1967 war. The controversy over the site is perhaps the most intense conflict in the world: the Israeli and Palestinian demands on the Old City of Jerusalem are profoundly incompatible.
Reports from Greece indicate how deep the split between Prime Minister Tsipras and the more radical members of his Syriza party actually was. According to published reports, the more radical members of the party had mapped out a process by which Greece could have left the euro and returned to its old currency, the drachma, in the dead of night. It was an audacious plan, involving taking over the Greek Central Bank, and suggests how difficult it has been for Tsipras to maintain control of the government. Interestingly, the plan had the virtue of being secret and the transformation would have occurred in the dead of night which would have avoided many of the critical problems associated with a return to the drachma. Nonetheless, leaving the euro would have been highly destabilizing to the Greek economy.
As Chinese power continues to increase, both globally and regionally, its military power has triggered a classic “security dilemma” in East and Southeast Asia. Robert Jervis wrote the most elegant description of the dilemma in World Politics in 1978. (Robert Jervis, “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Jan., 1978), pp. 167-214). What China regards as actions only designed to protect Chinese interests, its neighbors view the actions as threatening to their interests. Ultimately, Chinese power must (and will) be accommodated, but the key is to do so in the least violent manner possible.
US President Obama visited Kenya today, and delivered a very straightforward defense of LGBT rights in a country where homosexuality is a crime. According to the Los Angeles Times:
“I’m not equivocal on this. If somebody is a law-abiding citizen who’s going about their business or working in a job and obeying the traffic signs and doing all of the other things that good citizens are supposed to do and not harming anybody, the idea that they’re going to be abused because of who they love is just wrong,” Obama said.
“As an African American in the U.S., I am painfully aware of what happens when people are treated differently under the law.”
Kenyan President Kenyatta labelled the matter a “non-issue.” The difference in views is clearcut. As a committed liberal, Obama believes that all individuals are endowed with certain rights while Kenyatta believes that culture and history can be applied to the interpretation of those rights. It is too bad that the media decided not to report on the substantive nature of the difference.
The US campaign against the Islamic State is complicated by both its enemies and its allies. Although both sides are unwilling to acknowledge that they are cooperating, the US and Iran have been working together to attack Islamic State forces. And recently, Turkey announced that it would start bombing Islamic States sites in Syria–a welcome change of policy to the US. But the Turks are also starting to bomb Kurdish sites even though the Kurds have proven to be the US’s most reliable ground allies in the fight against the Islamic State. None of these activities are strategically consistent, and it is hard to determine how things will fall out.
The New Development Bank, comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has joined with the new Asia Infrastructural Investment Bank which was pioneered by China. The two new banks have been set up to offer alternatives to the financial institutions set up under the Bretton Woods system, primarily the IMF. The old banks have long operated under the primary influence of the US and Europe and there is deep sentiment that those banks do not represent the interests of emerging economies very well. The new banks are clearly ambitious and face formidable challenges, but one can only hope that they can shake up the world of international development economics.
Politics and economics are always laggard ideas; the ideas that truly move societies come from the arts. The Enlightenment could never have happened without the Renaissance. There is a young Vietnamese, Nguyen Vu Son, currently studying in Oklahoma who has issued a You Tube video entitled “Fuck Communism.” Needless to say, this video is considered highly subversive in Vietnam and Son has risked a great deal for himself and his family. The video, however, has been viewed many times in Vietnam so apparently there are some who think much like him about the corruption in Vietnamese government.
One of the conditions for the Greek bailout was that Greece put up for sale a number of public assets to private investors. The sale is supposed to raise 50 billion euro, but it is unlikely to be that successful. But the list of assets that are subject to the sale is large, and involve some industries that clearly involve the public interest such as ports, water and sewage facilities, airports, and oil and natural gas companies. The sale of some of these assets will be difficult for many Greeks to accept and will likely cause some resistance to the plan.
Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza has won a disputed third term even though he was constitutionally prohibited from a third term. The opposition refused to participate in the election, and most outside powers have signaled their unwillingness to work with Nkurunziza. The outcome is likely to produce an unsettled and possibly violent situation in Burundi.
World Politics News 