One of the background issues in the Syrian civil war is the proposed natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey. Qatar has been pushing for this pipeline for many years but has been stymied by the refusal of Syrian President Assad to allow the pipeline to be built across Syria. The Turks obviously favor the pipeline because it would allow Turkey to collect transit fees which would be a considerable source of revenue. The Russians oppose the pipeline because it would bring alternative natural gas supplies to Europe that would undercut Russian control of the European energy market.
The major power that has remained somewhat aloof from the conflict in the Middle East is China and it is difficult to figure out eaxctly what China’s interests are in the long run. Clearly, China cannot remain indifferent to the disposition of petroleum and natural gas, its most important imports. But beyond those concrete interests, how does the conflict fit into the Chinese world view? A Chinese blogger, Yang Hengjun, places China’s perspective in the context of the “Clash of Civilizations” thesis developed by Professor Samuel Huntington several years ago. I do not personally subscribe to the thesis, but it offers an interesting insight into Chinese values.
The lower house of the Brazilian Congress has initiated impeachment proceedings against the president, Dilma Rousseff. The proceedings will add a great deal of uncertainty to a country that is already reeling from an economic downturn and corruption scandals.
NATO has decided to invite Montenegro to join the alliance. The military alliance, created in 1949 in response to the growing Cold War, has expanded its membership since that time as the Soviet alliance (the Warsaw Pact)) disintegrated and the Soviet Union itself disappeared. NATO expansion has always been a sore point with the Russians which believes that NATO still exists to constrain the power of Russia. The move to invite Montenegro has rankled the Russians and it is not at all clear why NATO chose to make this decision in a time of very strained Western-Russian relations.
President U Thein Sein of Myanmar promised a smooth transition of power after the recent elections. The National League for Democracy party, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, won nearly 80 percent of the seats in the national election, ending a long period of military rule (1962-2010). Suu Kyi is constitutionally prohibited from becoming President (the military insisted that the constitution bar anyone with a foreign spouse from that post), but it is widely acknowledged that she will be setting the agenda for the country. The issues confronting Myanmar are quite serious and the top of that list is the growing hostility toward Muslims in the country.
John Cassidy of The New Yorker has written an interesting essay on the climate talks in Paris. He is optimistic that an agreement will be reached during the two-week conference; he is not optimistic that the agreement will really tackle the problem of climate change. The conference will not produce a treaty–neither the Americans or the Chinese are interested in a treaty. The US fears a treaty because it would unquestionably be defeated in the US Senate. The Chinese fear a treaty because they do not wish to give up any control over their economy. The problematic country in the mix is India which believes that the treaty must address the economic inequities implicit in carbon controls over poor countries at this time. In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Indian Prime minister Modi wrote:
Justice demands that, with what little carbon we can still safely burn, developing countries are allowed to grow. The lifestyles of a few must not crowd out opportunities for the many still on the first steps of the development ladder.
The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll in 38 countries on attitudes toward freedom of speech and freedom of the press. The results suggest broad support for those freedoms, but the regional differences in support are important to notice. The poll also asked questions about freedom of religion and gender equality which reflect wider diversity across the 38 countries. The poll reveals the extent to which liberal values underpin much of global civic society.
Germany has decided to send 1,200 troops to join the fight against Daesh (ISIS). The troops will be in a supporting and advisory role, but by simply sending troops abroad, Germany has made a bold statement. Since the end of World War II, Germany has been especially sensitive to any move that would suggest a rebirth of German militarism. Additionally, Germany has one of the largest Muslim populations in all of Europe and runs the risk of alienating that segment of its population by joining a fight against Muslim fighters.
Brazil’s economy shrank by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2015, a decline significantly larger than the predicted 1.2% decline. The data confirms that Brazil–which has the largest economy in Latin America–is in a full-fledged recession, spelling trouble for the entire region. Additionally, the economic decline spells further trouble for President Rousseff who has been undermined by corruption scandals surrounding some of her closest aides.
Russia has supplied its bombers in Syria with state-of-the-art air-to-air missiles. The arming comes after Turkey shot down a Russian bomber it said had violated Turkish territory. The move is a legitimate act of self-defense for the Russian pilots, but it makes the air space above Syria significantly more dangerous. In combination with Russia’s best anti-aircraft missile system, the S-400, the Russians now have tight control over Syria. The risk is that this control could also extend to objectives other than tracking down Daesh (ISIS), including activities conducted by Hezbollah in Syria against Israel.
The attacks on Paris and Beirut tend to be viewed in the context of the “global war on terror” which began for the West in 2001. But that perspective ignores the long history of interaction between Western and non-Western peoples. In particular, the Algerian war of independence in the 1950s and 1960s set the stage for how the French respond to acts of terror and why they became the objects of terror. One cannot divorce the history of imperialism from current events–indeed, an appreciation of that history is the only way to understand a way forward.
The Chinese yuan has become the fifth currency to be used to calculate the Special Drawing Rights of the IMF–the other currencies being the US dollar, the Japanese yen, sterling and the euro. The move signals the growing acceptance of the Chinese currency in international transactions and is a significant political victory for China. The move, however, also places a great deal of pressure on China not to manipulate its currency to stimulate its exports so it comes with significant economic costs to China.
There have been repeated stabbings and cars ramming into civilians in the Occupied West Bank over the last few months. The violence remains at a relatively low, but steady, level. Some analysts believe that this stretch of violence represents the third intifada (uprising) in Israeli-Palestinian relations (the first two were in 1987 and 2000). Other analysts believe that the conflict remains manageable. Whether it qualifies as a full-fledged uprising is beside the point. The essential point is that the tension in the Palestinian population is palpable and has no where to go. The Palestinians do not trust their own leadership (President Abbas has unilaterally extended his term of office since 2009 without authority), the Israelis, or the US.
There have been marches and protests all across the globe today in support of the COP-21 climate talks which start in Paris. Marchers in France were banned from assembling because of security concerns, but they used great creativity and left 10,000 pairs of shoes at the Place de la Republique instead. We already have commitments by some countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. According to The Guardian:
The EU will cut its emissions by 40%, compared with 1990 levels, by 2030. The US will cut its emissions by 26% to 28%, compared with 2005 levels, by 2025. China will agree that its emissions will peak by 2030.
Nations responsible for more than 90% of global emissions have now come up with their targets – known in the UN jargon as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs .
Unfortunately, with these commitments, the world still falls short of its goal: “Analysis of the INDCS, endorsed by the UN, has suggested that these pledges are enough to hold the world to about 2.7C or 3C of warming.”
Niall Ferguson, a commentator with whom I mostly disagree, has written a biography of Henry Kissinger, a statesperson whose policies I abhorred. Interestingly, however, the theme of the biography is something with which I agree: that the study of history is indispensable to good diplomacy. Apparently, we all agree with Thucydides: “The present, while never repeating the past exactly, must inevitably resemble it. Hence, so must the future.”
Juan Cole is one of the most experienced and insightful analysts of Middle Eastern events, and he has authored an essay for the Nation which urges us to rethink the way we think about the Islamic State (which he prefers to call by its Arabic name, Daesh). His analysis is compelling: the metaphor of war is inappropriate for actions against the group. Treating the Islamic State as a “state” legitimizes the group in the eyes of its followers and potential adherents.
One of the mysteries of the power of the Islamic State is how it gets so much money. We know that it is selling oil, but it has never been clear how it transports the oil out of Syria and Iraq, who sells the oil, and who buys the oil. El Araby, a newspaper out of Qatar, has tracked down these questions and the answers explain a great deal. It appears as if much of the oil is sold to Kurds (a purported ally of the US), shipped and refined through Turkey (another purported ally of the US), and much of it is sold to Israel (another purported ally of the US–the Islamic State oil accounts for as much as 75% of Israel’s oil consumption). In other words, American allies are helping to subsidize the Islamic State to the tune of about $50 million a month. Interestingly, one of the people who figures prominently in this web is Bilal Erdogan, the son of the Turkish Prime Minister, the country that opposes both the Kurds and the Islamic State.
India has maintained a blockade of Nepal since last September. The immediate cause of the blockade is the Indian displeasure with the new Nepalese constitution after almost ten years of living under an interim constitution. India’s concern is that the constitution does not accord full rights to the Nepalese Madheshis who live right on the Indian border. But the blockade almost represents an effort by India to exercise greater control over Nepalese affairs which it regards as necessary to prevent Chinese influence in Nepal. The blockade is causing a serious humanitarian crisis to the landlocked country since virtually all trade to and from Nepal flows through the border.
British prime minister, David Cameron, is trying to persuade the British Parliament to join the US and the French in attacks against the Islamic State but is encountering a high degree of skepticism from British lawmakers. The hesitation stems from the earlier experience in invading Iraq in 2003, an episode that failed to realize specific strategic objectives and led to the high degree of instability that the world currently faces in the Middle East. This hesitation also reflects a perennial problem in the analysis of world politics: what lessons can be learned from history and how to interpret previous experiences with contemporary circumstances which are always slightly different from the historical record.
There was a shooting incident near a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs. Early reports indicated that several police and civilians were injured in the shooting. Planned Parenthood has been the target of some anti-abortion groups who believe that abortion is immoral. I wonder if the media will refer to this tragedy as an act of “Christian” terrorism?
There was a gun attack on a Shia mosque in Bogra, Bangladesh. The international media is blaming the Islamic State for the attack on a mosque frequented by both Sunni and Shia Muslims. But the Bangladeshi media is reporting that the attack was carried out by a local group, not the Islamic State. The Shia Muslim population of Bangladesh is believed to be quite small, but, until recently, the country did not have a history of sectarian violence. More recently, however, there have been violent attacks on Christian, Shia Mulsim, and atheist populations.
The US has admitted that it made multiple and tragic errors in the attack against the hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan. The hospital was run by Doctors Without Borders, and the organization contacted the US while the attack was going on and its pleas were ignored. Among the errors made by the US:
The crew of the AC-130 gunship was not properly briefed before their mission.
Air and ground personnel failed to follow rules of engagement.
The ground commander did not have the authority to direct the airstrike.
Communications and targeting computer malfunctions targeted the wrong location.
Once on site, the aircrew independently chose to strike a building they believed to be the legitimate target.
The aircrew proceeded to use force that was disproportionate to the threat.
There is no way to win a conflict making such egregious mistakes: such incidents always loom larger than any successes to the populations involved.
The French Parliament has voted 325-0, with 21 abstentions to extend and deepen the airstrikes against the Islamic State. The vote indicates the depth of popular sentiment in France after the terrorist attack on Paris. French President Hollande is also in Russia to persuade Russia to coordinate its attacks on the Islamic State with the NATO countries.
Hollande and Putin
Officials in Burundi are complaining of a campaign of vilification against President Pierre Nkurunziza after the US implemented sanctions against him and his close aides. The US imposed sanctions after Nkurunziza ran for a constitutionally-prohibited third term in office. The political tension in the country is continuing to grow, mirroring the conflict that mired the country in a civil war that only ended 10 years ago.
I do not usually post political ads, and I am no supporter of Governor Kasich of Ohio. But he has launched an ad against Donald Trump that I think deserves viewing. I post it not because I do not support Trump, but because the ad uses the words of Martin Niemöller, who was a Lutheran pastor who initially supported Adolf Hitler but who then became a staunch anti-Nazi. These words are important for every generation to remember because they remind us that we are always responsible for each other.
2011-2015 “have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events – especially heatwaves – influenced by climate change.”
2015 is set to be the hottest year on record by far, with the highest ocean surface temperatures ever monitored.
It’s “probable” that total global warming since the industrial revolution will cross the 1°C (1.8°F).
The 3-month average of Northern Hemisphere CO2 levels “crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time.”
The crossing of the 1º C threshold is significant since it indicates that the planet is halfway to the 2º C point at which many climatologists regard as a point of catastrophic change. This year’s temperature extremes are off the charts from previous years.
It is not hard to think that the international system is currently quite fragile–indeed, parts of it seem to be deteriorating rapidly. In many respects, the fragility of the system reflects a loss of confidence in the liberal system to solve problems and to inspire confidence among disparate populations. There really is no alternative to liberalism right now, but the decay of the system is not necessarily due to competition from other systems. It is. rather, a failure to keep pace with the rate of change in the world.
The situation in Syria became significantly more complicated as Turkey has shot down a Russian bomber it said strayed into its airspace. This incident likely precludes the possibility that the US and Russia will cooperate any time soon in their activities against the Islamic State. The more immediate problem is how Russia will respond to this attack since it represents a serious challenge to Russia’s ability to maneuver to protect its military base near Latakia (which is very close to the place where the bombers were shot down). It also highlights the risks of US and allied airplanes operating in such close proximity to Russia airplanes–accidents are impossible to avoid completely.
One of the arguments used by those who deny that a climate change problem exists is the assertion that there was a “pause” in increasing temperatures in recent years. Indeed, using NOAA data there does seem to be a slight plateau in global surface temperatures (although it is hard to believe given the weather we’ve have this fall). New research, however, based upon NASA data, which includes more than land surface temperatures, indicates that there is, in fact, no pause and the the assertions claiming a pause use inconsistent time periods and data bases. Unfortunately, the evidence for increasing global temperatures appears to be conclusive.
A new study indicates that European banks are holding about €1 trillion worth of non-performing (“bad”) loans. This number reflects about 10% of the outstanding loans held by European banks to entities other than other banks–the equivalent rate for US banks is about 3%. The figure suggests that European banks may be especially vulnerable to any shap downturn in economic growth globally–something to wrry about since key countries such as China and Brazil seem to be experiencing dramatic slowdowns in their demand for European products.
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