Some things are unpredictable, but may be much more likely than we think. We are familiar with many threats, such as a car accident, but the probability of dying in a car accident is actually quite low. What we do not usually consider is a catastrophic event. But history is full of catastrophic events, such as the Plagues of the 1300s or the “Great Plague of Justinian” which killed between 13 and 17% of the human population in 541-42 CE. Those catastrophic events killed millions of people and, over time, the number of people killed in such events is huge raising the probability of dying to a much larger number than the more common ways of dying. In some sense, we are way overdue for such events, although they still remain unpredictable.
Thousands of Iraqi protesters. followers of the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have stormed into the Iraqi Parliament in the heavily fortified “Green Zone” of Baghdad. Demonstrations have been going on for months as the Parliament has refused to consider the reform measures introduced by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi. The Iraqi government seems to be incapable of handling the demands of the competing groups in Iraq, even as it is trying to address the insurgency of Daesh (the Islamic State). It is doubtful that the government will fall any time soon, but it also appears as if nothing substantive can be accomplished by the current government.
The Philippines is holding a national election on 9 May and one of the prominent candidates to succeed President Benigno Aquino is Rodrigo Duterte, who some regard as a Donald Trump-like figure. Duterte was the mayor of the city of Davao which was once a nearly lawless city and is now almost completely peaceful and well-managed. Duterte’s tactics, however, leave a lot to be desired: vigilante groups conducted many assassinations of suspected criminals and Duterte seems comfortable working outside of legal frameworks.
The US Congress has taken the initial steps to make women eligible for the military draft. Right now, only men aged 18-26 are required to register for the draft, but there is growing sentiment that that policy discriminates against women. Women have made enormous strides in achieving a degree of equality in the US military, but much remains to be done. Women are now eligible for combat roles and there is little on paper that prevents them from achieving the highest ranks. It remains to be seen, however, how the American people will react to any steps that would restore military conscription.
China has denied the US aircraft carrierUSS Stennis the right to make a port call at Hong Kong. Such denials are the right of every sovereign nation (unless a vessel is in urgent distress), but China has allowed such vessels to make port calls in the past. It seems clear that the refusal is an expression of Chinese displeasure with the US position on, and activities in, the South China Sea. The US and China have yet to reach any accommodation on the maritime claims in the Sea.
USS Stennis
Sergei Karaganov is Dean of the School of World Economics and International Relations at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics in Russia. He has written an essay for Russia in Global Affairs that presents an alternative view from the American one on the course of international relations since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The essay clearly outlines a quite different understanding of Western actions since that time and it challenges many assumptions about US interventions in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya.
One of the central tenets of liberalism is the separation of church and state, a position which is not held by many countries. The most obvious countries that reject that principle are Islamic states, such as Iran, that adhere to the principle that all laws must conform to religious principles, a position that is identified in liberal states as adherence to sharia law. There are many states with substantial Muslim populations that also believe in sharia law but which profess to be secular. The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll in some of those countries and the results indicate a wide range of views within the domestic populations.
The agony in Syria continues as bombings destroyed a pediatric hospital in the city of Aleppo. The hospital was partially staffed by Doctors without Borders and was in an area of the city held by rebels opposed to the government of President Assad. No one took responsibility for the attack, but it seems likely that the government was responsible given that the area was not under its control. But it is hard to tell: there seems to be nothing more than savage killing going on.
The Chinese Parliament has passed new laws governing the behavior of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in China. The laws, which take effect next year, grant “broad powers to police to question NGO workers, monitor their finances, regulate their work and shut down offices.” It is not clear how the laws will be applied, but they have the potential to restrict severely the growth of civil society in China. Without the ability to forge alliances with citizens of other countries, the Chinese people will be completely dependent upon the good will of their government.
One of the fundamental assumptions of classical realist thought is that human beings are inherently aggressive. A corollary of that proposition is that humans are selfish. Modern research, however, is challenging that key assumption. Neuroscientists are uncovering evidence that humans might actually be wired to be charitable and that it is less demanding on the brain to behave altruistically. More evidence is necessary, but it is a true step forward to be able to assess key assumptions that were heretofore untestable.
Foreign aid is hardly an act of altruism–states only help other states if the act furthers their national interests. The US Congress is considering raising the amount of foreign assistance it provides to Israel. The Congressional Research Service provides the following chart on how much aid the US has given Israel over the years.
The world is approaching a genuine transformation in the nature of work as it begins to develop robots with unbelievable capabilities. The MIT Technology Review has published an article on China’s commitment to replace humans with robots. Many countries are also developing this tactic:
Automation appears to offer an enticing technological solution. China already imports a huge number of industrial robots, but the country lags far behind competitors in the ratio of robots to workers. In South Korea, for instance, there are 478 robots per 10,000 workers; in Japan the figure is 315; in Germany, 292; in the United States it is 164. In China that number is only 36.
Robots offer great promise in replacing humans in dangerous and boring jobs. But what jobs will be created for the flesh-and-blood remains an open question.
It is always difficult for those of us trained in liberal thought to interpret the policies of non-liberal doctrines. Such is the case with China, and, in particular, the politics of President Xi. On April 6th, Xi launched a new ideological campaign named “Two Studies, One Action”. The new statement was in line with Xi’s earlier pronouncements, especially the emphasis in January 2015 on the role of ideology in Chinese universities. Whether President Xi intends to move further down the ideological road remains to be seen. But ideology is no substitute for the sense of progress among the citizenry at large.
US President Obama gave a speech in Germany today which was an attempt to restore the bonds between Europe and the US. Those bonds have always been strong, but people on both sides of the Atlantic are beset by problems and concerns that are especially unnerving. Obama has a special gift for rhetoric and this speech was no exception:
So I say to you, the people of Europe, don’t forget who you are. You are the heirs to a struggle for freedom. You’re the Germans, the French, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Luxembourgers, the Italians — and yes, the British — (applause) — who rose above old divisions and put Europe on the path to union. (Applause.)
You’re the Poles of Solidarity and the Czechs and Slovaks who waged a Velvet Revolution. You’re the Latvians, and Lithuanians and Estonians who linked hands in a great human chain of freedom. You’re the Hungarians and Austrians who cut through borders of barbed wire. And you’re the Berliners who, on that November night, finally tore down that wall. You’re the people of Madrid and London who faced down bombings and refused to give in to fear.
And you are the Parisians who, later this year, plan to reopen the Bataclan. You’re the people of Brussels, in a square of flowers and flags, including one Belgian who offered a message — we need “more.” More understanding. More dialogue. More humanity.
That’s who you are. United, together. You are Europe — “United in diversity.” Guided by the ideals that have lit the world, and stronger when you stand as one.
The Egyptian transfer of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia continues to roil Egyptian politics. The backdrop to this controversy is the deepening economic distress of the country, but the transfer of land to Saudi Arabia acts as a lightening rod to the discontent. Today marks the day the Israel returned the Sinai peninsula to Egypt in 1982, land that Israel had seized in the 1967 war. Usually it is a day of celebration, but today it was an occasion to protest the government of General Sisi. Sisi remains firmly in control, but the situation cannot continue to deteriorate without some explosion of discontent.
Norbert Hofer of the Austrian Freedom Party won the first round of national elections with 35% of the vote, the largest percentage in the history of the right-wing party. None of the established parties earned many votes, with the Green Party and an Independent coming in second and third in the elections. The results signal massive voter dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs in Austria, and the influx of refugees appears to be a dominant concern of many voters.
A Freedom Party Poster from 2014 on Banning the Burqa in Austria
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic appears to have won a sizable victory in that country’s national elections. Vucic is an economic conservative who strongly favors closer ties with the European Union. Unfortunately, it also appears as if Vojislav Seselj, the leader of the ultra-nationalist Radical Party, will have a seat in the Parliament and will likely be the leader of the opposition. Seselj was tried by the UN tribunal at the Hague for war crimes during Yugoslavia’s break-up in the 1990s and was acquitted of those crimes. He nonetheless represents a very nationalist side of the Serbian electorate.
Papa Wemba has died. He died while performing in a music festival in Ivory Coast. Papa Wemba first burst onto the music scene in the 1960s and his influence on music was truly global. His role in bringing African music to the world’s attention was singular and his death is a great loss to the world.
North Korea has tested a missile launch from a submarine. It is not clear if the test was completely successful, but the launch suggests that North Korea is developing greater strategic capabilities. Submarine launched missiles would give North Korea greater flexibility is an attack, but it seems as if the North Korean capability is still quite underdeveloped. There are concerns, however, that North Korea is getting close to testing a fifth nuclear explosion which would be in violation of UN sanctions. The test will inevitably bring China closer to the Western allies opposed to North Korean nuclear capabilities.
Daesh (the Islamic States) has claimed responsibility for the murder of a professor in Bangladesh. Rezaul Karim Siddique was killed on his way to his class at Rajshahi University and is the fourth professor to be killed in the last 12 years. Daesh said that Siddique was killed because he was an “atheist” although there is no evidence to substantiate that characterization. Bangladesh is officially a secular country, but radicals professing adherence to Islam have launched a string of murders against what they regard as enemies of Islam.
The Iran-allied Houthi movement and the Saudi-backed government of Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi have met in Juwait to discuss a possible settlement in the ongoing war in Yemen, The meeting broke down without the sides even agreeing on an agenda to discuss. The violence began in September 2014 and more than 6,000 people have died in the conflict so far. The outcome is disappointing, but there has been a fragile cease-fire in place and at least the sides have agreed to talk. But there is clearly a long way to go.
Fred Kaplan has written an insightful piece for Slatethat reviews the steps the Obama Administration has taken in Iraq to fight Daesh (the Islamic State). He raises the central issue about which many analysts have raised concern: the possibility of “mission creep” into a larger war. Kaplan does a good job of pointing out how American forces have learned important lessons about fighting in Iraq and suggests that perhaps Obama has taken steps to avoid a larger war. But President Obama leaves office in less than a year and who knows who the next US President will be.
170 nation-states will likely sign the climate change agreement that was forged in Paris last year and with luck the agreement will be ratified by the end of 2016. The agreement is significant only because it signals (finally) that the major polluters have recognized their responsibilities in changing their behaviors. The agreement itself does not contain mechanisms to avert climate change in any signficiant way.
The nation-state is a poor agent to address the issue of climate change. It is so deeply rooted in the concept of territoriality that it is more likely to impede attempts to solve the problem than it is to contribute to a solution. In order to prevent the catastrophic effects of climate change, the whole concept of sovereignty needs to be re-imagined.
Ever since the contested election of President Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi a few months ago, there has been a steady level of violence in the country. The election was contested because Nkurunziza sought a third term in office, something prohibited by the constitution. Nkurunziza is a Hutu and the violence between that ethnic group and the minority Tutsi in central Africa has been endemic for many years, the most explosive episode being the genocide in Rwanda in 1994. The rising tension is causing concern that the violence may once again explode.
Globalization and free trade are the underlying issues in this year’s presidential campaign in the US. The critiques of how trade policies have affected the American middle class have been launched from both the right and the left. What was once a given issue in the American hegemony is now being contested within the hegemon. Whatever the outcome in the US election, the debate will resonate strongly for many years to come.
The US Geological Service has published a group of stunning satellite images of the earth. Many are false images that highlight specific features of the landscape. Run it as a slideshow–the effect is mesmerizing.
Great Sandy Desert, Western Australia
One of the troubling aspects of this years presidential primaries is the extent to which the American middle class is showing great anger and insecurity. We worry about those emotions in politics since they are usually rooted in economic circumstances that are not quickly or easily resolved. The economic security of the American middle class has deteriorated over the last 40 years in ways that were completely unanticipated. According to Neal Gabler in the most recent issue of The Atlantic:
Median net worth has declined steeply in the past generation—down 85.3 percent from 1983 to 2013 for the bottom income quintile, down 63.5 percent for the second-lowest quintile, and down 25.8 percent for the third, or middle, quintile. According to research funded by the Russell Sage Foundation, the inflation-adjusted net worth of the typical household, one at the median point of wealth distribution, was $87,992 in 2003. By 2013, it had declined to $54,500, a 38 percent drop.
Under these circumstances, one can only expect politics to be highly volatile.
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