Images often move world politics in ways that words cannot. In the Bosnian conflict in the 1990s, it was a video of a Serbian bombardment of the city of Sarajevo finally forced the world to mobilize and launch a humanitarian intervention. The Aleppo Media Center has released a video of a five-year old boy, Omran Daqneesh, who was rescued from a bombing in Aleppo that may finally mobilize the world to take action in the Syrian civil war. The video is truly heart-breaking and should remind us that most diplomatic-speak is designed to disguise the true horrors of military action. After the release of this video, Russia announced that it would permit a 48-hour cease-fire to allow humanitarian aid to reach Aleppo.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears to be escalating. Russia has built-up its military forces in eastern Ukraine to a substantial degree over the summer and overt violence has broken out in Crimea. These developments may be a prelude to another outbreak of war or it may just be another gambit in Russian diplomacy. Russian President Putin may simply be exploiting the weakness in the European Union following the Brexit vote in order to get the economic sanctions against Russia reduced. Or it may be an act of saber-rattling to mobilize support for Putin’s political party, United Russia, in anticipation of the Parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in September.
“According to the documents, which were acquired by the Syrian opposition site Zaman al-Wasl and shared with the AP, 70 percent of recruits were listed as having just ‘basic’ knowledge of Shariah — the lowest possible choice. Around 24 percent were categorized as having an ‘intermediate’ knowledge, with just 5 percent considered advanced students of Islam. Five recruits were listed as having memorized the Quran.”
The analysis suggests that many of these so-called jihadis were not really motivated by religion, but rather by other, non-religious, reasons.
The Council on Foreign Relations has developed a “Global Conflict Tracker” which is a useful interactive graphic on conflicts all over the world. It is a great site to find basic information about conflicts all over the world and whether they have significant or limited effects on American foreign policy. It is specifically directed toward American foreign policy which is a serious limitation, but I suspect that the narrow focus fits in with the mandate of the Council.
Russia has used an Iranian air base to launch air strikes against anti-Assad forces in Syria. The use of Iranian military facilities marks an important step in Iranian-Russian relations. Iran is very sensitive to any foreign forces on its soil, and has a long history of suspicions against Russian intentions. The move also indicates increasing Russian success is forging a coalition with Turkey and China.
Every month this year has set a global high temperature record, and July is no exception. Actually, July is the 15th month in a row to set a new record. Part of the high temperature for the month was due to the strong el Niño which has now begun to abate. But the bulk of the increase is due to human activity. The temperature increase was not uniform across the planet–parts of the Arctic and Antarctic were almost 14 ° F above average.
Conflict has been raging in Yemen for 16 months, abetted by sustained air campaigns conducted by a Saudi Arabian-led coalition. A report issued by the World Bank, United Nations, Islamic Development Bank and European Union estimates that the costs of the war so far have exceeded $14 billion in a country with an average per capita GDP of $1,097. Far worse are the civilian casualties suffered in a war that pays scant attention to the laws of war.
The Russian press is reporting that the US and Russia are close to an agreement on joint military action against Daesh (the Islamic State) in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The US has yet to comment on these reports and we have precious few details on what these joint actions might entail. There is little question that the people of the city desperately need humanitarian support which is impossible without military security. But the key demand of Russia has always been that President Assad must remain in office. It is possible that to secure this agreement, the US might be willing to change its position that Assad must go.
Terrorism is a hot-button political issue and the reasons why are obvious: people demand security from their government and terrorism shatters that promise. It is very easy for politicians to assert that they can stop terrorism, but it is difficult to see the path to the eradication of the tactic. The alternative is to think about terrorism as a treatable, but not curable, disease. Such an alternative interpretation of terrorism requires great political skill and an incredible commitment, but it also requires a different way of thinking about the tactic by the general public.
One of the recurring themes of many political campaigns over the last few years has been the demand for certainty. Fear of immigrants or of people of other ethnicity, race, or sexual orientation seems to be pervasive, and there appears to be a constituency in many polities that wishes the state to protect a specific national “identity” from these others. This demand for moral certainty is also often linked to a demand for economic certainty: protection against the economic activities of these “others”. The combination is toxic but also flawed as it rests upon assumptions about the way things “used to be” that is often imaginary.
Juan Cole is a reliably lefty critic of American foreign policy and a very knowledgeable analyst of Middle Eastern affairs. He has written a blog essay on why the US should not get involved in the Syrian civil war. In so doing, he is responding to those analysts who believe that the humanitarian crisis in Syria is so grotesque that the US should operate under the aegis of of the Responsibility to Protect. Cole gives seven reasons why such a move would be a serious mistake.
Tensions over refugees in Germany are boiling over. German President Joachim Gauck attended a hiking day celebration in the city of Sebnitz and he was greeted by strong protests. The video below is somewhat misleading because the protesters are not clearly identified. Some were protesting German’s lenient policy toward refugees while others were protesting because not enough is being done to help the refugees. The video is, however, testimony to the strong political feelings in the country that will likely resonate in the 2017 elections.
Corruption in politics does not simply revolve around money. Perhaps a more serious threat to democracy is the corruption of language associated with political rhetoric. There are substantive reasons to be concerned about the way language has been misused in a number of recent political campaigns. The current US presidential election is one egregious example of misleading rhetoric, but examples can be found in political campaigns in several other countries.
The U.S.-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), a fighting force comprised of Arabs and Kurds, have taken control of the Syrian city of Manbij. Thousands of displaced citizens returned to the city after the SDF forced out the forces of Daesh (the Islamic State). The liberation of the city was a significant tactical step as it cuts off a central supply route for Daesh between Turkey and Syria.
Migrant workers compose one of the most important elements of globalization. They move to areas that are short of labor and send their wages back to their families in the form of remittances. In many countries remittances comprise one of the largest capital flows in the Gross Domestic Product. Unfortunately, migrant workers lack specified rights and they are often exploited by the host countries. One such situation is ongoing in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia employs thousands of workers from Pakistan, the Philippines, and other countries. It is currently going through a very difficult budget squeeze because of the decline in the price of oil and many construction projects have been frozen. The workers are left in the lurch–they are not getting paid and have no way of returning home.
Iceland is experiencing one of the most interesting, and perhaps important, political developments in the world. Its Prime Minister, Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, was forced to resign because of revelations that his family was involved in disguising personal monies in offshore bank accounts. The revelation was particularly galling to Icelanders because of the outsized role of Icelandic banks in the financial crisis of 2008. Since the resignation, the Pirate Party has slowly been gaining strength and is now leading all the polls for the upcoming national election in October. The Pirate Party does not really have a policy platform, but it argues for direct democracy instead of representative democracy.
Zambia is holding a tightly contested presidential race today. The two leading candidates are the current president, Edgar Lungu, and Hakainde Hichilema. The key issue in the race is the wretched state of the Zambian economy which has suffered from low copper (it main export) prices and very high levels of government debt. The election has been marred by high levels of political campaign violence.
Nigeria has suffered two cases of wild polio. It has been two years since the last polio case had occurred in Nigeria and officials had been hoping for a third year of being polio free since three years is the threshold for declaring eradication of the debilitating disease. Nigeria has been immunizing its children, but the violent activities of Boko Haram has prevented health workers from visiting all areas of the country.
We should keep our eyes on Ukraine as unconfirmed reports of firefights in northern Crimea are beginning to circulate widely. We do not have good news sources in Crimea, so it is hard to figure out what is happening, but the reports include information about Russian troops and weapons movements, firefights between Russian forces and Ukrainian fighters, and activities in the Black Sea. Crimea appears to be preparing for war.
The US Department of State has issued its annual Religious Freedom Report. The report singles out blasphemy and apostasy laws, supported in some Islamic countries–Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Sudan, Pakistan and Mauritania–, for special attention. It asserts liberal principles that “[s]uch laws conflict with and undermine universally recognized human rights.” It is unlikely that the government of these countries are sympathetic to the criticism, but the report is targeted toward citizens within them who might feel threatened by those laws.
Leaders in Northern Ireland have met with British Prime Minister Theresa May to discuss the terms of British exit from the European Union. Northern Ireland citizens voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union and the economy of Northern Ireland is quite dependent upon EU support. These negotiations are going to be very difficult and one possible outcome is a Northern Ireland secession from Great Britain.
Today is the anniversary of Jerry Garcia‘s death. Jerry was the guitarist for the Grateful Dead and one of the most revered figures in psychedelic rock and someone who tried very hard to look like me. He was 53 years old and his death attracted so much attention that traffic on Bloomberg News, one of Wall Street’s most important sources of information, crashed the site for 20 minutes. Make America Grateful Again!!
R.I.P Jerry
Australia has an abysmal record of maltreatment of refugees. It has long intercepted boat people and sent them to different islands for processing. Through leaked documents, we finally have a glimpse into the abuse of refugees who were sent to the island of Nauru. Nauru is one of the most isolated areas of the earth and the country only has a population of about 10,000 people. Australia pays Nauru for the right to detain people on its territory, but it is clear that neither Australia nor Nauru have lived up to any semblance of regard for human rights.
The US began supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya at the beginning of this month. Prior to that point, the US military was simply waging a war against the growing presence of Daesh (the Islamic State) in Libya. Ultimately, however, the US and its European allies are themselves responsible for the violence which has enveloped the country since the overthrow of Muammar Qaddaffi in 2011. But what began in 2011 as a short-term measure to protect innocent civilians has now morphed into a full-scale effort to support a shaky government in 2016. Libya is a classic case of not thinking through the long-term consequences of military actions.
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