Over the last twenty years we have witnessed two parallel developments in the world: a striking rise in income inequality in the world as well as a dramatic surge in nationalism. Many analysts (myself included) suspect that there is a strong link between the two changes, but parsing out the links between them is very difficult. Robert Shiller, an economist from Yale, lays out some of the possible relationships and suggests that there are some very strong causal relationships.
More than 150 countries reached an agreement to limit the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) which are used in refrigerators and air conditioners. HFCs are powerful greenhouse gases and the agreement builds upon an earlier agreement, the Montreal Protocol, which limited chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in other circumstances. The agreement affects countries differently, according to their level of development. According to The Guardian: “Rich countries, including the US, Japan and Europe, will start phasing out synthetic HFCs in 2019, China in 2024, and India and less ambitious countries in 2028.
Analysts are becoming increasingly concerned about US-Russian relations. Both sides accuse each other of provocative actions, and there is certainly enough evidence to suggest that both sides are engaging in activities that are plausibly hostile. Russia, however, seems to be playing from a position of relative weakness given the low price of oil and the Western sanctions which have depressed its economy. The New Yorker has an excellent article which outlines possible Russian intentions and capabilities.
As the debate over free trade continues in both the US and Europe, there is a tendency to think that the proper approach to trade is either/or: either a state has a commitment to free trade or it does not. Dani Rodrik, an Economics Professor at Harvard, suggests that we should think about trade in more nuanced terms. His words are wise:
“….we need a better balance between national autonomy and globalization. In particular, we need to place the requirements of liberal democracy ahead of those of international trade and investment. Such a rebalancing would leave plenty of room for an open global economy; in fact, it would enable and sustain it.”
The political debates lose sight of this essential truth and do us all a disservice by not framing a useful discussion.
NBC News is reporting that the US is preparing to wage cyberwar against Russia in retaliation for Russian hacking of American political sites. The CIA and other agencies have been instructed to gain access to Russian computers in order to make public information that would be embarrassing to Russian leadership, particularly Russian President Putin. The most likely targets would be electronic records that would document offshore banking accounts held by Putin and his cohort. Apparently President Obama has to give the final approval to the plan, but its primary purpose would be to send a message to the world that hacking into American computers would always invite retaliation.
The US has had soldiers in Afghanistan since October 2001 and the security situation in the country has yet to be stabilized. The Taliban continue to mount offensives in the country although most of the population of the country is in government-controlled areas. President Obama came into office vowing to end military operations in Afghanistan, but he will be handing the war off to his successor. Indeed, President Obama will leave with the US involved in more wars than when he took office: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and, now, Yemen.
The International Food Policy Research Institute has published its Global Hunger Indexfor 2016 (Students in the World Politics course need only read the “Summary” for purposes of the weekly quiz). The Index measures the degree and severity of food insecurity in most countries of the world and this year’s report indicates that there has been measurable progress in reducing levels of malnutrition and starvation in the world. Nonetheless, the report finds that “Levels of hunger are serious or alarming in 50 countries.”
Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej has died. The King was the most recent holder of the Chakri dynasty which has ruled Thailand since 1782 and ascended to the throne in 1946. He guided the country through two military dictatorships and was viewed as a stabilizing force in Thai politics. He was revered by most Thais even though he held little formal power. His departure comes at a very sensitive time in Thai politics since the country has been ruled by a military junta since 2014 and the country has yet to return to a full democracy. Bhumibol’s son, Vajiralongkorn, will become the new King of Thailand.
In class we have talked about the difficulty of “recalibrating” power as weak powers become strong (as is the case with China in the contemporary world). The difficulties of adjusting to changes in the balance of power was the source of the conflict that led to the Peloponnesian War: Sparta became increasingly concerned at how Athenian power grew dramatically and quickly. Graham Allison refers to the conundrum as the “Thucydides Trap” in an essay which elegantly posed the difficulties of balancing when the targets are moving.
For those who might share my fascination with maps, I highly recommend a brilliant new site published by the Museo Galileo in Florence, Italy. It is an interactive site investigating the 1507 map by German mapmaker Martin Waldseemüller. It is the first map that discards many of the early preconceptions of the geography of the world. Most importantly, it is the first map that identifies the Western Hemisphere as a distinctive part of the globe. It is also the map that gives the name “America” to the continents of the Western Hemisphere. after the explorer, Amerigo Vespucci. It would be difficult to overstate the significance of these discoveries for the European sense of place.
For those who wish to understand the great power dynamics in the Syrian civil war, I recommend a very detailed article in Spiegel. It goes through the dense web of alliances in the civil war, from the local groups fighting for limited Syrian goals to the great power fighting each other through proxies. The complexity (and inconsistencies) of these alliances give strong evidence for the intractability of the conflict and why, no matter what happens, this conflict will likely drag on for many years.
One of the pivotal events in the evolution of modern Europe was the plague that started to decimate populations in Europe in 1348. By the time that initial burst of contagion abated, almost 30% of the population of Europe was dead. But the revealing aspect of the plague was its clear manifestation of the process of globalization that the Europeans would ultimately master and use to control most of the world by the end of the 19th century. Paradoxically, the roots of imperial Europe begin with a devastating catastrophe.
Since Great Britain voted to leave the European Union, the British pound has lost 16% of its value as investors decide that the British exit will leave Great Britain poorer. The British Prime Minister has indicated that she prefers what analysts have termed a “hard” exit: a departure from the EU with few ties to the EU that could conceivably be retained by small concessions on both sides. The Economistinterprets the decision in these terms:
“Markets anticipate that it will become more costly for British firms to sell goods and services to Europe. Europeans will consequently buy fewer of them, and therefore fewer pounds, leading to a weaker currency. That is, cheap sterling is part of the adjustment to a loss in British competitiveness: the mechanism by which Britons come to spend less on foreign goodies (now increasingly dear) as the price of its choice to leave the EU.”
The British decision should be viewed as a vote against globalization and that the British people are willing to pay the price.
Russian President Putin has cancelled a scheduled trip to Paris to celebrate the opening of a new Orthodox Church and a new Russian cultural exhibit. The cancellation comes after Russia vetoed a French Security Council resolution pushing for a cease-fire in Syria and a charge by French President Hollande that the Russian role in the Syrian civil war should be referred to the International Criminal Court for war crimes. Russian relations with the West continue to deteriorate.
As the world continues to discuss the issue of immigration, it is difficult to determine the basis for many of the claims surrounding how beneficial immigration is to a society. Some opponents of immigration believe that immigrants bring crime, terrorism, and lower wages. These claims are hard to document–the evidence is hard to assess since it is not systematic or comprehensive. But there are some aspects to immigration which appear to be fairly clear-cut. Of the six Americans who received the Nobel Prizes for various disciplines this year, all six are immigrants to the United States.
In an outcome that will certainly discomfort Russia, the pro-Western party, Georgian Dream, won a decisive victory in the national parliamentary elections. Georgia was once part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, but has had a very tense relationship with Russia since its independence in 1991. Russia invaded the country in 2008 and wrested control of two parts of the country, creating two new countries (which have never been recognized by most countries in the world): South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The invasion was precipitated by the same fear that led Russia to invade Crimea in 2014: overtures from NATO and the EU for closer ties. Georgia walks a very difficult line given its geographic proximity to Russia.
“Overall, the researchers found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for just over half of the total observed increase in fuel dryness since 1979. In turn, this influence has added more than 16,000 square miles of forest fire area to the western United States since 1984 — an area larger than the state of Maryland— nearly doubling the area scientists might have expected without the influence of similar climate change.”
The relationship between climate change and wildfires is certain to become more pronounced as global temperatures rise. It remains to be seen whether the relationship can be tested in other areas of the world.
“The Bank for International Settlements raised alarm bells last month over China’s “credit to GDP gap”. The key gauge of banking risk is currently at a record high of above 30, and much higher than levels seen in the run up to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.”
The Chinese government has the financial reserves to cover many of these debts but the use of these reserves would signal a serious crisis and likely lead to a decline in confidence in the Chinese economy.
The IMF has warned that the global economy is running a serious risk by allowing debt levels to rise to about $152 trillion. That amount is twice the size of the entire global GDP. The rapid rise of debt is troubling because it has not been accompanied by a rise in economic activity. Debt levels are not necessarily a problem as long as the debt is being used to stimulate future economic activity which allows the debt to be repaid. Debt in the absence of economic growth is a bubble waiting to burst–at some point, the creditors are going to demand to be repaid.
The South Asian movie industry is one of the most dynamic in the world and certainly the largest. It has, however, fallen victim to the crisis over Kashmir. Indian movies have been banned in Pakistan and Pakistani actors and technicians have been banned in India. The Pakistani bans renew policies that were once quite common, but the line between art and politics seems to have become very blurred because of the crisis.
It is hard to appreciate the devastation in Haiti. We still have only an incomplete picture of the damage brought about by Hurricane Matthew. What we do know is that Haiti is likely the least capable country in the Western Hemisphere to deal with the destruction. Many areas of the country are still inaccessible because of damage to the transportation infrastructure. Some humanitarian relief is arriving in the country, but without a central government able to allocate and distribute the aid effectively, it is hard to imagine that the aid can be immediately effective. The biggest fear right now is the spread of disease due to the lack of clean water. Having said all that, it is hard to explain why the international community has been so slow to react to this crisis–the tepid response thus far will alleviate very little of the suffering.
Politics in the US is often (incorrectly) defined in liberal/conservative terms. The distinction is misleading because in political theory “liberal” refers to a special attitude toward the role of the individual society: liberal politics maximizes human freedom, a position often attributed to “conservative” thinkers in the US. Not only is the distinction misleading, it also seems to be increasing irrelevant. A more meaningful distinction has emerged over the last 8 years. Political controversies are better understood from the perspective of an attitude toward globalization. Attitudes toward trade, immigration, and refugees are the issues being contested most directly today.
The UN Security Council discussed two competing resolutions on the Syrian civil war, but ultimately rejected both. The Russian resolution called for a separation of extremist and moderate forces in Syria but did not call for a bombing halt against the city of Aleppo. That resolution only received four affirmative votes. The French resolution, which called for a truce on the bombing of Aleppo and for humanitarian aid, received 11 affirmative votes, but was vetoed by the Russians. The Russians have used the veto power on five Syrian resolutions in the last five years.
The Guardian has a fascinating piece on Iranian objectives in Iraq and Syria. The US and Iran are silent allies in this conflict. Both want the defeat of Daesh (the Islamic State). But Iranian aspirations are to develop a corridor of control from Tehran to the Mediterranean. If Iran were to gain control over such a corridor using Syria and the Kurds as allies, it would certainly shift the balance of power in the Middle East away from the Sunni states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Egypt. The US would be confronted with difficult decisions if such a shift were to occur.
Marjory was a student in the very first class I ever taught at MHC in 1976. She has been a tireless advocate for human rights and the human spirit her entire life.
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