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I have had a number of online discussions with a number of my friends about the election tomorrow and it is safe to say that there are high levels of anxiety about the outcome. I predict that we will know the result of the election no later than 10:30 pm tomorrow and that Biden will win convincingly. I make this prediction on the basis of these points.

1. The extraordinary number of early voters suggests to me that there are many people who are highly motivated to see Trump defeated. We are well aware of the devotion of Trump supporters. But their intensity of feeling is outmatched by the views of most that Trump cannot be allowed to remain in office.
2. There is little evidence to suggest that Trump has expanded his base from 2016 and more anecdotal evidence that some Trump supporters have been disappointed by the last four years. In addition, there are 4 million more voters than in 2016 and most of those voters are young people more likely to reject Trump’s view of what America should be.
3. The growing number of COVID cases is reaching into areas of the US that some thought would be unaffected by the pandemic. In the early days of the pandemic there was a widespread belief among Trump supporters that the pandemic would be confined to urban areas. That belief has proven to be wrong.
4. The economic downturn is proving to be deeper and more extensive than many expected. Given the rapid rate of increase in COVID infections, there is little reason to believe that the economy will perk up any time soon. The failure of the Congress to provide additional stimulus will most likely be attributed to Senator McConnell, and not to the Democrats.

If this prediction proves to be correct, then I invite you all to join me with a glass of single malt scotch at 10:30 tomorrow night. If, on the other hand, I turn out to be a dime short on my nickel bet, then I would encourage everyone to forget that they ever read this post. In the meantime, relax. There’s nothing that can be done between now and tomorrow night that will change anything.