World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Australian researchers have published a new paper entitled “Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach”. The paper is unquestionably disturbing and outlines a scenario based upon inaction by the international community to restrain greenhouse gas emissions. The scenario predicts an existential threat to humanity by the year 2050:

“In the years leading up to 2050, policy makers fail to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The case for the global climate-emergency mobilization necessary to keep temperatures from rising is ‘politely ignored.’ Global greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2030 and begin to fall due to a drop in fossil fuel use, but damage has been done and warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius. 

“By 2050, sea levels have risen 1.6 feet and are projected to increase by as much as 10 feet by 2100. 

“Globally, 55% of the population lives in areas subject to more than 20 days of lethal heat a year, beyond the human threshold of survivability. 

“North America suffers from devastating weather extremes, including wildfires, heatwaves, droughts and flooding. China’s summer monsoons fail and water in Asia’s great rivers are severely reduced from the loss of more than one-third of the Himalayan ice sheet.” 

Studies indicate that a rise of 3 degrees Celsius would trigger heat waves in major cities across the planet that would kill thousands.

Unfortunately, there is little evidence that some of the major greenhouse gas emitters are taking effective action to avert this scenario.

Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin chose not attend any of the ceremonies surrounding the anniversary of the D-Day invasion, even though both were allied with the US, France, and Great Britain during World War II (the Russians regard the invasion as less important than the Russian stand against the Nazis in Stalingrad which many consider the turning point in the war). But they spent time together in Moscow in a manner designed to make Western powers look less important. Xi said “[I]n the past six years, we have met nearly 30 times. Russia is the country that I have visited the most times, and President Putin is my best friend and colleague” and Putin stated that “bilateral ties had ‘reached an unprecedented level’ and described the relationship between the two countries as ‘a global partnership and strategic cooperation.'”