The horrific attacks in Paris yesterday has unfortunately unleashed some rather predictable backlashes: the strident calls for a more intense war against the Islamic State, foul characterizations of Islam, and self-serving promises of greater security by all governments. No one seems to be willing to ask the very simple question: what conditions make some individuals so willing to undertake such brutal actions? It seems to be a very obvious first step to solving the problem but I have yet to hear anyone in the media pose the issue. At the risk of stating the obvious, we should all remember that the issue is not “Islamic” extremism. The issue is extremism.
To reinforce the point, there was an attack by the Islamic State in Beirut the day before the Paris attacks. The bombings in Lebanon killed 43 people, but they were Shi’a Muslim (the Islamic State is comprised mainly by Sunni Muslims). Lebanon has been without a President for over a year and the government is virtually impotent. And Lebanon has been hosting about 1.5 million refugees from Syria. Lebanon is far more fragile than France at this time and the bombings have shaken the country tremendously, reminding many of the civil war that decimated the country from 1975 to 1990.
There is a lot of evidence that many economies around the planet are slowing down but we do not have a good idea of why the slowdown is happening. One prime factor for the slowing may be the downturn in trade which is predicted to fall to about 2% of last year’s rate this year. Trade is a prime generator of growth as it contributes to greater production at lower costs. Currency fluctuations, many of which have been deliberately engineered by governments, may be behind the trade decline. Governments are trying to stimulate their exports by letting their currencies devalue. But what works for one country is completely counterproductive if many countries follow suit. Right now there does not seem to be any concerted effort to stop these currency wars.
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