World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

In discussions about climate change we often get confused between climate and weather.  Weather is essentially a daily activity: we always have weather.  Climate is a statistical probability of what kind of weather one might have at a certain time of the year.  Sometimes we get cold days during summer and sometimes we get warm days during winter.  Such events are not likely in any given summer or winter, but they do happen.  Climate scientists wrestle with this distinction all the time.  As climate models have improved, scientists believe that we can now assert that climate change will affect the probability of such unlikely events, making them more likely than was the case in the past. Since extreme events are ones for which we rarely prepare, the effects of these extreme events will likely be more noticeable and devastating.   Until, of course, that we begin to expect them.

The US and Japan have clarified some aspects of their defense relationship that will undoubtedly trouble China.  First, the US has stated unequivocally that the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands will be considered as the Senkaku Islands under Japanese sovereignty.  This statement removes any doubts about whether the US will fill bound to defend the Japanese claim to the islands.  Second, the Japanese will now interpret their constitution as allowing them to come to the aid of the US even if Japan itself is not threatened–in other words, the Japanese military will no longer be bound to a strict definition of “self-defense.”   In foreign policy, clarity is often quite useful, particularly in alliance matters.  Now the question is whether China wishes to test the strength of the US commitment to Japan.

As the deadline for Greek finances continues to come closer with no real resolution, the Greek Minister of Finance, Yanis Varoufakis, has been sidelined.  Apparently, Varoufakis has embittered too many of his troika counterparts to be effective.  It remains to be seen whether the troika will reward Greece for a more conciliatory approach.  We could be watching a variation of the “good cop/bad cop” routine that is so often used in bad crime movies.