Some pundits have compared the political turmoil in 2014 to the turmoil in 1914 that led to World War I. There are some interesting parallels, but historical analogies are both revealing and dangerous. The dangers of such analogies are that we overemphasize the similarities and ignore critical differences. The rising tensions in East and Southeast Asia occasioned by the rise of China have led some to compare the situation to the rise of Germany in the late 19th century. There are, however, many reasons to question the usefulness of the 1914 analogy in Asia.
The rocket attacks fired by Hamas on Israel are unquestionably unlawful under the laws of war: they are not precisely targeted and therefore place noncombatants in jeopardy. There is a question, however, about their lethality. Phan Nguyen has done a very detailed analysis of the deaths attributed to the rockets in the three conflicts against Israel: Operation Cast Lead (December 27, 2008–January 18, 2009), Operation Pillar of Defense (November 14, 2012–November 21, 2012), and the ongoing Operation Protective Edge (July 8, 2014–). In total, 27 Israelis have died from the rocket attacks. Nguyen also raises some very interesting points about how the attacks are characterized in the media. The analysis is quite thorough.
The Ukrainian government has launched several offensives to retake control of territory held by Russian-speaking separatists. One of its transport planes was shot down when it was at an altitude higher than the range of the shoulder-held antiaircraft missiles available to the separatists, raising the possibility that it was downed by a missile fired from Russia. The fighting in Ukraine has begun to intensify after a period of somewhat low-intensity. It is unclear what Russia plans to do if the Ukrainian government succeeds in putting down the rebellion.
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