World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The underlying context of the economic crisis the world has been going through since 2008 is the massive increase in the debt taken on by governments.  The debt is often viewed as evidence of profligate spending and the growth of a sense of entitlement among citizens that do not contribute to overall economic growth.  That analysis is the bedrock of the austerity programs that have led to so much misery in the world.  Economists in France have done a thorough analysis of the French public debt, and have come to the conclusion that that analysis is not accurate.  Their conclusion is that the vast growth of debt in France was not due to an increase in public spending (in fact, public spending in France went down substantially), but rather the reduction in taxes.  If true, then austerity programs are exactly the wrong medicine to apply.  In Greece, laid-off state workers have protested their dismissals, leading to dramatic confrontations with the police.

On the other dramatic front in the world, Iraq, we are witnessing one of the last gasps of European colonialism in the Middle East.  Iraq is a state with three nations–Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and Kurds–with only one state–the central government in Baghdad.  That structure was established by the British along the terms of the Sykes-Picot Treaty concluded in 1916.  It was a secret agreement between France, Britain, and Russia dealing with the disposition of the territory controlled by the Ottoman Empire after its expected dissolution at the end of World War I.  The treaty gave the territory of what is now Iraq to Great Britain (and what is now Syria and Lebanon to France–see the map below).

When Iraq became independent in 1932, there was no move to reconceptualize the territory along the lines of the allegiances of the people who lived in the territory.  A monarchy had been established in 1921 that perpetuated the idea of Iraq, but the monarchy was overthrown in 1958 and a republic was created.  Ultimately, Saddam Hussein seized power in 1979 until his overthrow by American forces in 2003.  Throughout this entire history, the Sunni Muslims had been in control of the central government because the British had placed them in power from the very beginning, and the Sunnis did not allow the Shia or the Kurds any meaningful participation in their governance.

Thus, when the US set up elections in 2006, the majority population–the Shia–took control of the central government, and, under Prime Minister of Nouri al-Maliki, there has been a systematic exclusion of the Sunni Muslims.  The Sunnis resent the loss of control; the Shia view their behavior as payback.  The Kurds thought that greater autonomy was all they could ask for, but, given the oil reserves in Kurdish territory, an independent Kurdish state was always possible.

But now everything is up for grabs.  The Sunni Muslims look poised to take control of territories populated by Sunnis.  ISIS has made the claim to take control of Baghdad, and perhaps they might, but the central government of Iraq has lost all legitimacy (that’s what happens when the security forces abandon their posts without a fight).  So there is no longer any “Iraq”.  We will most likely see the country split into three separate states, two of them Islamic Republics who will actually hate each other.  The Kurds will establish their own state which will roil the Kurds in Syria, Iran, and especially Turkey.

Such a division should have occurred with the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire.  The mistake of European colonialism was to believe that nation-states could be created without regard for the historical and cultural dynamics of the people who lived within the territory.  We are now witnessing the turmoil of justice long delayed.