President Morsi has been ousted by the Egyptian military. At this point it is difficult to interpret the action. Obviously, there are many in Egypt who believe that the coup actually re-establishes democracy because they believe that Morsi was becoming too authoritarian. At the same time there are many others who believe that democracy has been subverted. After all, Morsi has only been in office for a year, and ruled in very difficult circumstances. Most presidential systems in the world have fixed terms to prevent premature judgments on whether a president is “successful” (there is always a provision for impeachment in case of high crimes–but no one has accused Morsi of treason). In short, people are most likely to come to pre-determined conclusions on the issue of whether the military coup was justified.
The Obama Administration most likely does not know how to respond. Under the terms of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (USC› Title 22 › Chapter 91 › Subchapter II › § 8422), the US cannot give foreign aid to any country which experiences a military coup. It is unlikely, however, that without the $1.5 billion the US provides to Egypt every year Egypt will be able to stabilize its economy. Additionally, at this time we have no idea how the Muslim Brotherhood will respond to the coup, but it seems probable that the reaction will be highly negative, and possibly violent.
The tectonic plates of the Middle East continue to shift. The protests in Turkey and Egypt have destabilized the politics of two of the most powerful regional actors. The forceful support of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria have propelled the other powerful regional actor into a temporarily dominant position. Israel clearly benefits from the moves in Egypt and Turkey; it suffers by the new-found prominence of Iran. The great powers–the US, Russia, and China–have emerged as irrelevant to the primary dynamics of regional politics.
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