Over the last three weeks violence has broken out in the Central African Republic. The country has experienced outbreaks of violence over the last 15 years of rather severe violence. The rebel groups are a coalition of disaffected groups that have organized under the Seleka alliance suggesting that the current violence may be more organized than in the past. The CAR is a very poor country–62% of the population lives beneath the poverty line. Other African countries are trying to broker a cease-fire, and we will have to see how effective these efforts can be.
Charles Emmerson has published a provocative essay in foreign policy, comparing the world in 1913 to the world in 2013. The byline of the essay reads: “Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913, on the cusp of the Great War.” There are some astonishing parallels to the two time periods, enough to creep anyone out. Obviously, the comparison is overstated, but we study history so that we can better understand whatever patterns we discern in our contemporary lives. History doesn’t teach lessons, but it does provide some remarkable insights.
Japan’s new government under Shinzo Abe is taking a sharp nationalist turn. His new cabinet is full of individuals who would like the Japanese constitution to be revised so that Japan can build a more assertive military. The action is in response to China’s military moves, but is obviously part of the security dilemma cycle: all of Japan’s neighbors cannot help but be nervous about the changes and will likely respond in similar fashion.
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