25 December 2012   Leave a comment

Israel has announced a third round of new settlements near Jerusalem, bringing the total for a week to nearly 5,500.  It is hard to interpret these actions as anything less than a repudiation of the two-state policy that Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the US adopted in Oslo in 1993.  It is highly likely that, if re-elected in January, Prime minister Netanyahu will formally repudiate the two-state solution.  Since there is no diplomatic alternative to Oslo right now, such a stance would mean the end of peace negotiations.  Perhaps the Europeans might be able to formulate an alternative.

One of the more interesting developments in the last 20 years has been the rise of Chinese foreign direct investment in areas that are former European colonies.  The hope was that this new source of capital would give the developing world a more viable development alternative.  The verdict is still out, but it does not appear as if the Chinese are more insightful than the Europeans when it comes to cultural difference.  How these investments play out over the next few years will be an important measure of whether foreign capital can ever really be helpful to true development.

The economic troubles in Europe have been going on for 5 years now, and they are now beginning to affect how the younger generation views the future of Europe.  The departure of many of Europe’s best young professionals to other regions of the world signals a quickening of the structural factors leading to economic decline.  Notably, these young people are not going to the US or other traditional safe havens–they are more likely to go to the newly emerging market economies.  We’ll see how long-lasting this shift is.

Posted December 26, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

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