By this time tomorrow (8:30 pm, EDT) we should be beginning to get some sense of how the Greek elections went. Right now, the consensus seems to be that the election will not yield a strong government which would simply prolong the agony of the euro. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve all appear to be ready to flood the world with money if the euro starts to tank. I have begun to think that the Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) will win the largest number of votes, primarily as a protest vote against Germany.
We will also be getting some results from Egypt, although the meaning of the election will be difficult to interpret. The military’s dissolution of the Parliament generally means that Egypt will have a President without a constitution or Parliament. If Shafiq wins, it will be almost as if Mubarak never left. I imagine that more protests are highly likely, no matter who wins the election.
On Monday the G20 will be meeting in Mexico and the countries will have much to talk about. I expect the IMF to get promises of more money to lend to indebted countries in Europe. More money is certainly necessary, but what is most important are the conditions attached to the money. I doubt that the European states can endure more austerity without some political fallout.
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