Through MEMRI, a foreign language translation service, we have access to an Iranian website that outlines how Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. It is quite detailed but probably overestimates the effectiveness of Iran’s weaponry (all military plans share this very common defect). It seems fairly clear that Iran could cause serious problems to the oil tankers passing through the Strait–it need not be 100% effective to make insurance rates for those tankers to become prohibitively expensive. The Washington Post had an article today, downplaying the likelihood of any blockage of the Strait. If you read the article carefully, however, there is nothing that substantiates the headline.
The Italians were able to seel two-year bonds at greatly reduced yields today which was a very good sign. The euro, however, suffered a major crisis of confidence in the day.
It’s not immediately clear what really happened, but these bolts out of the blue are worrisome precisely because they don’t seem to have a reason. We’ll have to keep an eye on this.
World Politics News 
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