Archive for the ‘World Politics’ Category
On 13 June US President Trump tweeted: “Just landed – a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” But yesterday, President Trump signed an Executive Order that:
“The existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula; the actions and policies of the Government of North Korea that destabilize the Korean Peninsula and imperil United States Armed Forces, allies, and trading partners in the region, including its pursuit of nuclear and missile programs; and other provocative, destabilizing, and repressive actions and policies of the Government of North Korea continue to constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. For this reason, I have determined that it is necessary to continue the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13466 with respect to North Korea.”
We are left with the problem of deciding which President Trump to believe.
Turkey will hold a national election on Sunday. The current President, Tayyip Erdogan, has dominated Turkey for the last 15 years and most observers expect him to win the election. The challenger, Muharrem Ince, is from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) which has a decided secularist bent and which has been waging a vigorous campaign against the growing power of Islamists in the country. As is usually the case, the economy is central to the concerns of the voters and the Turkish economy has been going through difficult times and Erdogan has been spending more money than the country can reasonably afford. The election is being heavily monitored and the election could mark a decisive point in Turkish politics.
Muharrem Ince
For the last week, Syrian government forces have been attacking US-backed rebels near the city of Deraa. The city is in the southwestern part of Syria and the US had been led to believe that Syria would not move in that area and has protested vigorously against the move, not only to Syria but also its backer, Russia. The US is concerned that the offensive is too close to its allies, Jordan and Israel, and wishes to avoid any chance of a misunderstanding or miscalculation. Syrian President Assad, however, does not seem to be swayed by the US protests.
The Pew Research Center conducted a fascinating study on how accurately US adults discriminate between “factual” and “opinion” articles in media sources. The Center carefully constructed these articles and one should read the article to determine whether the distinction was viably made in the study. Given that caveat, the study revealed a surprising lack of critical thought among most American adults and, not surprisingly, a high degree of correlation between the politics of those surveyed and whether they thought the article was “factual” or “opinion”. According to the study:
“The main portion of the study, which measured the public’s ability to distinguish between five factual statements and five opinion statements, found that a majority of Americans correctly identified at least three of the five statements in each set. But this result is only a little better than random guesses. Far fewer Americans got all five correct, and roughly a quarter got most or all wrong. Even more revealing is that certain Americans do far better at parsing through this content than others. Those with high political awareness, those who are very digitally savvy and those who place high levels of trust in the news media are better able than others to accurately identify news-related statements as factual or opinion.”
It is difficult to figure out how to redress this problem. One must want to know the truth in order to do the difficult work to determine whether something is true. Apparently, supporting a political position is more important to many Americans than is being accurate.
The European Union (EU) has slapped retaliatory tariffs on US products in response to the US tariffs on aluminum and steel. The retaliatory tariffs will raise the cost of imports from the US by about $34 billion. In a letter to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the EU listed the very specific products on which it is raising tariffs. In the letter, the EU justified the tariffs in terms that are permitted by the rules of the WTO:
“On 8 March 2018 the United States of America (“United States”) adopted safeguard measures in the form of a tariff increase on imports of certain steel and aluminium products (at rates of 25% and 10%, respectively), effective from 23 March 2018 and with an unlimited duration. The effective date of the tariff increase with respect to the European Union was deferred to 1 May and subsequently to 1 June 2018. Notwithstanding the United States’ characterisation of these
measures as security measures, they are safeguard measures.
“The United States failed to notify the WTO Committee on Safeguards under Article 12.1(c) on taking a decision to apply safeguard measures.”
President Trump escalated the trade war after the EU move by announcing that he will impose a 20% tariff on automobiles imported from Europe. Apparently the US Commerce Department is investigating whether imported European cars pose a national security risk–an argument that should invite disbelief. The world is perilously close to an official trade war, reminiscent of the 1930s and which aggravated the Great Depression.
The United Nations is asserting that more than 500 people have been killed in Venezuela by an extra-judicial government group known as the “Operations for the Liberation of the People”. The killings are designed to stifle protest and opposition to the autocratic rule of Nicolás Maduro. The UN was not allowed into Venezuela to conduct its investigation, but had to rely on electronic testimony as well as interviews with Venezuelan exiles. The UN charges that the rule of law is “virtually absent” in Venezuela. The matter was referred to the UN Human Rights Council, but no concrete action against the government of Venezuela was suggested.
One of the most important issues facing every country right now is how to create jobs. Outsourcing and automation have been the twin forces driving down the value of labor and most evidence suggests that we have only seen the beginning of the process of replacing humans with robots or robotic processes. According to researchers at the University of Oxford “47 percent of American jobs at high risk of being automated in the years ahead.” A company called Creator will introduce the first robotic burger restaurant in San Francisco on 27 June. According to Bloomberg:
“The product, from Bay Area-based Creator, a culinary robotics company, is assembled and cooked in a machine that contains 20 computers, 350 sensors, and 50 actuator mechanisms. It does everything from slicing and toasting the brioche bun to adding toppings (to order) and seasoning and cooking the patties, all in five minutes. The meat is ground to order—why it’s touted as so fresh—and sourced from premium ingredients. It emerges from the machine piled with tomatoes and lettuce, sprinkled with seasonings, and drizzled with sauces, at which point it’s transferred by human hands to the customer. The price: $6.”
Young people often find their first jobs to be low-paying and repetitive ones. When I was young, entry-level jobs included pumping gas, working check-out at a grocery store, working as a bank teller, or flipping burgers. Now we pump our own gas, scan our own groceries, or use an ATM. Flipping burgers was one of he last bastions for youth employment but it appears that even that option will disappear soon.
At a rally in Duluth, Minnesota, US President Trump asserted that “Sentence one [of the agreement signed by leader Kim Jong-un] says ‘a total denuclearization of North Korea’. There will be denuclearization. So that’s the real story.” There are two things wrong with that assertion. First, the agreement only commits North Korea to “work toward” denuclearization. Second, there is no agreement between the US and North Korea over the meaning of denuclearization. I am not sure when Mr. Trump will begin to understand that his meeting with leader Kim was only the first step of a process.
Saudi Arabia is taking its campaign against its neighbor, Qatar, to extreme lengths. It has proposed building a canal, called the Salwa Canal, that would turn the peninsula of Qatar into an island. It would be “a 38-mile-long, 65-feet-deep, 660-feet-wide channel.” Five international construction companies have submitted bids to build the canal and it is projected to be finished within a year. Saudi Arabia accused Qatar of sponsoring terrorism last year and announced a boycott of the country. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, and the Maldives have joined the boycott. The group has made 13 demands on Qatar, including the closing of the media outlet, Al Jazeera.
Hungary has passed a new law that states that “helping migrants legalize their status in Hungary by distributing information about the asylum process or providing them with financial assistance could result in a 12-month jail term.” Additionally, according to Joshua Keating in Slate: “The government also changed the constitution to make it illegal to ‘settle foreign populations’ in Hungary, a response to EU efforts to resettle refugees throughout the bloc’s member states.” The law is specifically intended to stop the Open Society Foundation founded by George Soros. Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, is determined to create what he calls an “illiberal” state. The change augurs ill for the European Union and the governments in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia seems to be moving in the same direction.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pulled out of the coalition which has ruled Indian-controlled Kashmir which means that the region will now be ruled by the central Indian government until a new coalition is created. The decision to leave the coalition stemmed from increased violence in the region. The BJP had been in a coalition with the Muslim-backed People’s Democratic Party (PDP) since 2015, but the alliance was always uneasy. The change to direct rule by the central government will make governing the region very difficult and it is likely that violence will increase in Kashmir. The governance of Kashmir has been a highly contentious issue between India and Pakistan since the founding of the two states in 1947.
Today is World Refugee Day, a day designated to bring attention to the plight of the most vulnerable people in the world: refugees. In 2017, 2.9 million additional people sought political asylum, the highest number of people ever recorded. Of that number, only 100,000 were given refuge. The total number of people seeking refuge in the world is almost 70 million. But there is little question that the attitude toward refugees today is as hostile as it was in the 1930s. And the day is recognized on the same day that the US left the UN Human Rights Council.
“Blood and soil” nationalism has deepened in Italy, as the Interior Minister, Matteo Salvini, announced plans for a census of the country’s Roma community and to expel those Roma who are not of Italian nationality. The Roma are an itinerant people who live throughout Europe and elsewhere and who identify closely with their traditions, relatives, and customs. Because of their migratory patterns and their close-knit behavior, they are often regarded by suspicion (and are often pejoratively referred to as “Gypsies”) and have historically been mistreated (they were also victims of the Nazi holocaust during World War II). The announcement by Salvini raised many fears about the nature of the nationalism being fostered by the new government in Italy.
The US Senate has approved a hefty increase ($82 billion) for military spending in the 2019 budget, bringing the total allocation to about $719 billion. If approved, it would be the highest allocation for military spending since the height of the Iraq War. The budget does not include President Trump’s plans for a new military branch in space: “I’m hereby directing the Department of Defense and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a space force as the sixth branch of the armed forces….It is not enough to merely have an American presence in space. We must have American dominance in space.” There were no plans to increase taxation to provide the new monies for the military, so apparently the military budget will continue to be funded by deficit spending.
President Trump has threatened $200 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese products if the Chinese do not rescind their retaliatory tariffs on the US aluminum and steel tariffs. The tit-for-tat trade war with China seems to be quickening in pace.
It is hard to imagine China backing down from its tariffs. Indeed, it is likely that China will take further steps to respond to the US tariffs. A trade war seems inevitable at this point.
In a surprising move, India announced that it would also impose equivalent tariffs on US imports in retaliation for the US tariffs on aluminum and steel produced in the US. The size of the retaliatory moves are not large, but the move is nonetheless surprising because the US and India and earlier announced that they would negotiate their trade differences. The announcement reads as follows:
“India hereby reiterates its decision to suspend concessions or other obligations notified to the Council for Trade in Goods on 18 May 2018… that are substantially equivalent to the amount of trade affected by the measures imposed by the United States….The proposed suspension of concessions or other obligations takes the form of an increase in tariffs on selected products originating in the United States, based on the measures of the United States.
“India reserves its right to further suspend substantially equivalent concessions and other obligations based on the trade impact resulting from the application of the measures of the United States.”
The announcement was conveyed to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and indicates that more states are treating the US tariffs as a first move in a generalized trade war. Given that the trade between India and the US in these products is rather small, it is clear that the tariffs are becoming a matter of principle.
In a move that is historically unprecedented, US President Trump tweeted a statement that seems to undermine the government of one of the US’s most important allies. German Chancellor Merkel faces a collapse of her coalition government over the issue of immigration but despite that vulnerability, Trump tweeted: “The people of Germany are turning against their leadership as migration is rocking the already tenuous Berlin coalition. Crime in Germany is way up. Big mistake made all over Europe in allowing millions of people in who have so strongly and violently changed their culture!” The facts are otherwise. Crime in Germany is down and immigration is also down. Italy is also confronting Germany over the Dublin Rules of the European Union (EU) which establishes immigration quotas on each member state, If Merkel’s government does collapse it is not at all clear how it will be replaced which will leave the EU adrift without its most important backer.
The Center for American Progress (CAP) is a lefty non-governmental organization with a decided point of view so I read its reports regularly but with a degree of skepticism. It has released a report on federal funding for scientific research and support on climate change. The Trump Administration views climate change from its own highly skeptical point of view so it is not a revelation to know that federal funding has gone down. The Center has compiled data which is quite striking, not simply because it shows that research on the specific issue of climate change has been going down, but also because it shows that baseline climate information–independent of whether it shows climate change–is being lost. It seems as if very valuable data is being lost which might be necessary for issues that have little or nothing to do with climate change.
One of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition partners, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is threatening to leave the government, a move that could end Merkel’s government. The CSU is philosophically aligned with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), but, faced with upcoming elections in their base, Bavaria, is moving further away from Merkel’s more lenient stance on immigration. Horst Seehofer is the Interior Minister and a member of the CSU, and he has submitted a plan to end immigration, violating both Merkel’s and the European Union’s policies on immigration. Merkel’s most recent government has only been in power for three months, but they have been very difficult months for liberals in Europe. After the election in Italy, Merkel’s commitment to a rules-based liberal order is shared by one other major European economy, France. The US under President Trump has moved far away from the post-World War II consensus and authoritarian governments, in Europe and outside of Europe, are gaining power.
In another move signaling the end of the commitment of the US to liberal values abroad, Reuters is reporting that the US plans to leave the United Nations Human Rights Council. The departure is due to the US belief that the Council has a strong anti-Israel bias. During the George W. Bush Administration, the US boycotted the council for its alleged anti-Israel policies but President Obama rejoined the Council in 2009. Most recently, the Council has condemned Israel for the excessive use of force in the protests in the Gaza Strip. The Trump Administration is also upset that the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights criticized the US for its current policy of separating children from the parents when they are found to be in the US without proper papers.
China has retaliated with its own tariffs to match those imposed by the US on its products. The tariffs amount to about $50 billion, exactly the same amount of the value of the tariffs imposed by the US. According to New York Magazine:
“China says its tariffs will follow the same time line as the new U.S. ones, with the first wave hitting July 6, targeting 545 U.S. products worth about $34 billion, including soybeans, whiskey, orange juice, electric cars, salmon, and cigars. The second wave of Chinese tariffs will come later in the year, aiming at 114 other products worth $16 billion, including chemicals, medical equipment, and energy products like coal, crude oil, and gasoline.
“China also said that ‘all economic and trade agreements reached by previous negotiations will be nullified’ when the new tariffs go into effect. In one of those agreements, which was conditional on Trump not threatening new tariffs, China promised to buy $70 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and energy products — a trade-deficit reducing deal which Trump had prematurely hailed as a victory.”
China TImes states its view of the issue:
“In recent years, China has reduced its trade surplus with many countries, and some later had a trade deficit. But it is difficult to reduce the trade surplus with the US. The fundamental cause is how the US has a low national savings rate.
“Americans spend more than they can make, which guarantees the country will always have a significant trade deficit with another nation. Furthermore, the high-tech industry is a US trade advantage, but they like to play the role of ‘agriculture country’ and while the Middle East likes to play the role of ‘energy production country’ in trade with China. The US continues to limit its high-tech exports to China but is more than willing to sell their soybeans, corn, wheat, petroleum and natural gas.
“Besides reducing the trade deficit, the Trump administration aims to curb China’s high-tech upgrades and prevent it from advancing along the global supply chain. They routinely accuse China of stealing intellectual property and force international companies to transfer their technology. The tariffs announced Friday by the White House begin with China’s high-tech products.
“Anyone with a primary education could easily realize there will never be a balanced China-US trade relationship by selling soybeans and petroleum. There isn’t one country who would give up their rights to advance technology and make industrial upgrades, and yet President Trump insists on selling agricultural products to China.”
Its editorial conclusion is a sharp rebuff to the historical position of the US:
“The US ignores the rules of the multilateral global trading system and has even set their credibility aside for bilateral negotiations. For a long time, it has been a staunch advocate of the current international system. Its interest should be fostered and appropriately collected. And yet here they are willing to sacrifice everything for short-term gains.
“Dealing with the US is difficult, but China can easily refuse theft and coercion. China will remain with the US through negotiations and war. If a trade war between the two becomes fierce, the result will not provide a favorable political environment for President Trump.”
There are three weeks before any of these tariffs are finalized. We should know by then if the world will be engaged in a trade war.
The history of negotiations with North Korea on the question of nuclear weapons is very long and complicated. Denuclearization was agreed upon in the “Agreed Framework” that North Korea signed with the US in 1994 under the Clinton Administration. Since that time, each side has accused the other of breaking agreements and of negotiating in bad faith. Most of those breakdowns have occurred because each side had different interpretations of the meanings of specific terms in the agreements. That history was one of the reasons why the P5+1 negotiated an excruciatingly detailed agreement with Iran called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which ran to 109 pages and 5 annexes. The Sentosa Agreement (as the 2 page agreement signed in Singapore is now being called) is thin on details. For some reason, US President Trump believes that the details can be worked out easily. In the press gaggle at the White House today, Mr Trump said:
“And I will tell you this: We now have a very good relationship with North Korea. When I came into this job, it looked like war — not because of me, but because — if you remember the sit-down with Barack Obama, I think you will admit this, he said the biggest problem that the United States has, and by far the most dangerous problem — and he said to me — that we’ve ever had, because of nuclear, is North Korea.
“Now, that was shortly before I entered office. I have solved that problem. Now, we’re getting it memorialized and all, but that problem is largely solved, and part of the reason is we signed, number one, a very good document. But you know what? More importantly than the document — more importantly than the document, I have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un. That’s a very important thing.”
The fact that Mr Trump and Mr. Kim talked is important, but to declare that the “problem is largely solved” is an overstatement given the history of previous agreements.
Air pollution in Delhi has risen to levels beyond the capabilities of monitoring devices. The devices can measure particulates in the air and use a range of 0-999, with a level of 270 considered “very unhealthy”. But a duststorm combined with the normal pollution in the city to levels above 999. Levels are expected to remain at very high levels until the temperature cools off a bit in October. The range of pollution levels around the city are very high and construction projects in the city are being delayed to help lower the pollution.
India’s Air Quality Index
Macedonia is a former province in what was once Yugoslavia which became an independent state after Yugoslavia dissolved. But Macedonia is also the home of Alexander the Great who the Greeks regard as one of their historic figures. Ever since Macedonia became independent, the Greeks have protested its name, leading the United Nations to call the state the “Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia” when it was admitted to the organization. After many years of intense discussion, the Macedonians and the Greeks have agreed upon a compromise, and Macedonia will be known as the “Republic of Northern Macedonia”. The agreement stills needs formal ratification, but the dispute is dramatic evidence over the political power of nationhood and the singular importance of cultural identity.
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is a scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and he has written a short essay on the radically different interpretations of the Singapore Summit held by the US and the North Korean sides. Not surprisingly, each side has a different interpretation of the 400-word communique signed by each. The US continues to insist that North Korea must get rid of its nuclear weapons before sanctions are eased, while the North Koreans are heralding the easing of sanctions soon.
“For Kim Jong Un, it is his nuclear weapons that brought Trump to the table. He is happy to talk and suspend some tests, but seems prepared to draw the line at actually abandoning the programs that brought him to this point…..
“Trump, on the other hand, has promised loudly and repeatedly that this process will end with North Korea’s disarmament. He has made it clear that Kim Jong Un must give up his nuclear weapons. In this way, the dispute about whether to proceed all at once or in a gradual process is really a dispute about the ultimate goal: Is North Korea’s disarmament an aspiration, one that Kim Jong Un may leave unfilled? Or is it something that must happen now — or at least no later than the end of Donald Trump’s first term? On this issue, the parties appear as far apart as ever.”
There should be no question about which side will prevail on this issue. The US has no additional leverage other than the threat of war to coerce the North Koreans. The North Koreans will simply continue the negotiations, and as long as both sides are talking, the US will be prevented from using force.
Bloomberg is reporting that the US will impose tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese imports on Friday. The list includes about 1,500 products, but they are targeted on the Chinese technology sector. According to Bloomberg: “The administration has said it wants to aim its tariffs at industries identified in China’s 2025 plan. ‘Made in China 2025’ identified 10 industries that the world’s second-biggest economy wants to become globally competitive, and dominant in during this century.” The tariffs are therefore more than just economic instruments–they are also strategic, which will make the Chinese even more angry. We will have to see how the Chinese respond, but it is hard to imagine that the Chinese will welcome the scheduled talks on trade with the US.
US President Trump apparently questioned the stance of Western allies opposed to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 in discussions at the recent G7 meeting in Canada. According to sources, Mr. Trump pointed out that the majority of people in Crimea speak Russian and that the government of Ukraine was so corrupt that its sovereignty should not have been defended. If these reports are accurate, Mr. Trump is clearly signaling a retreat from the rules-based liberal world order in which aggression against a sovereign state is not a sufficient reason for collective security. That stance is an implicit endorsement of a return to a balance of power system.
New York Magazine has published an article entitled “This Is What a Nuclear Bomb Looks Like” which examines the likely consequences of a single nuclear bomb explosion on New York City and its surrounding environs. The article is not a technical analysis, nor does it examine the circumstances under which a bomb might explode. But it does provide an important context for discussions of “fire and fury” which seems to be lacking in the discussions concerning Iran, North Korea, and the unprecedented nuclear arms build-up by the US, Russia, and China.
The melt rate of ice in Antarctica has tripled over the last ten years, and it is now sending 200 billion tons of ice into the ocean annually. The research, published today in the journal Nature, is a welcome addition to the information we have about Antarctica, an area of the world about which we actually know very little. The paucity of hard information is troubling since if all the ice at the South Pole melted, it would raise sea levels by almost 100 feet, making most of the major coastal cities in the world uninhabitable.
I still remain completely uncertain about what happened in Singapore between President Trump and Leader Kim. Some sort of agreement was reached but I am not at all clear how it differs from previous North Korean statements about its commitment to denuclearization. There are also a number of issues not addressed in the join communique, one of which was the process of verifying denuclearization. This exchange between a reporter and US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, suggests that, at this point, the US does not have any idea of what it expects in the verification process:
QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, I wanted to ask you about “verifiable and irreversible.”
SECRETARY POMPEO: Mm-hmm.
QUESTION: You said – the day before you said it’s our only objective, our – it’s clear we want that. It’s not in the statement. Why it’s not in the statement? And the President said it will —
SECRETARY POMPEO: Mm-hmm, it’s in the statement. It’s in the statement. You’re just wrong about that.
QUESTION: How is it in the statement? And I am also —
SECRETARY POMPEO: You’re just – because “complete” encompasses verifiable and irreversible. It just – I suppose we – you could argue semantics, but let me assure you that it’s in the document.
QUESTION: And the President said it will be verified.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Of course it will.
QUESTION: Can you tell us a little bit more about —
SECRETARY POMPEO: Of course it will. I mean —
QUESTION: — what is – what discussed about how?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Just so you know, you could ask me this – I find that question insulting and ridiculous and, frankly, ludicrous. I just have to be honest with you. It’s a game and one ought not play games with serious matters like this.
President Trump tweeted “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea”, but actually nothing of substance has changed. I remain befuddled and cannot really offer any assessment of the agreement until more details are made available.
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