World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The Indian Supreme Court has decided that a colonial-era law, known as Section 377 of the penal code, that criminalized “unnatural consensual sex” was unconstitutional.  The ruling means that the LGBTQ community in India now does not need to fear criminal prosecution for their behavior.  The decision does not legalize same-sex marriage, but it is a dramatic step forward in the expansion of human rights in the world.  According to PinkNews:

“Justice DY Chandrachud said that LGBT+ people “have equal rights,” adding that “this case is much more than just decriminalising a provision.

“It is about an aspiration to realise constitutional rights and the equal existence of the LGBT community as other citizens.”

Whether these rights will be regarded as universal remains to be seen.  More than 70 countries still have laws criminalizing homosexuality.

Activists Celebrate the Decision

Sweden is holding its national elections on Sunday, and there is growing evidence that the Sweden Democrats, a right-wing party opposed to immigration, will do very well at the polls.  The Sweden Democrats have strong support in the rural areas of Sweden.   Sweden admitted more than 160,000 refugees seeking political asylum in 2015 and the influx of refugees has coincided with an increase in crime in the country, although there is no evidence of a connection between the two facts.  The election will likely not produce a majority government, so smaller parties, including the Sweden Democrats, will have an outsized voice in the new government.  The rise of the right wing is testimony to the radical changes in the ethos of the open society that has been the hallmark of Swedish society for many years.

There is an interesting proposal in the US Congress to build “concrete seawalls, earthen barriers, floating gates and steel levees on the Texas Gulf Coast.”  The purpose of these projects is to build property coast from the devastating effects of storm surges and storm damage that may be getting worse because of climate change.  There is little question that property damage from storms like Harvey and Sandy was extensive and that the US must take steps to minimize the damage as much as possible.  But what makes the proposal so interesting and difficult to think about is that much of the property being protected are oil refineries which produce the very fuels that aggravate climate change through greenhouse gases.  Do we build these structures in order to protect the oil industry?  Do we build these structures to protect an energy that most Americans use on a daily basis?  Or do we build these structures in order to protect ordinary property owners who have nothing to do with the oil industry?  According to the AP:

“Construction in Texas could begin in several months on the three sections of storm barrier. While plans are still being finalized, some dirt levees will be raised to about 17 feet high, and 6 miles of 19-foot-tall floodwalls would be built or strengthened around Port Arthur, a Texas-Louisiana border locale of pungent chemical smells and towering knots of steel pipes.

“The town of 55,000 includes the Saudi-controlled Motiva oil refinery, the nation’s largest, as well as refineries owned by oil giants Valero Energy Corp. and Total S.A. There are also almost a dozen petrochemical facilities.”

One way to think about this plan is to pose the question of whether such structures would be built in the absence of the oil industry’s interests.  If the answer to that question is no, then perhaps the oil industry should be expected to pay a larger share of the projects’ costs.

Areas of Southeast US Susceptible to Storm Surge Damage

Three months ago, US President Trump believed that his meeting with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, had made significant progress in deescalating the conflict with North Korea:

“There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” (Tweet, June 13)

“And the big thing is, it will be a total denuclearization, which is already starting taking place. (Cabinet meeting, June 21)

“I have solved that problem. Now, we’re getting it memorialized and all, but that problem is largely solved, and part of the reason is we signed, number one, a very good document.” (Remarks to reporters, June 15)

Those predictions were premature.  The evidence suggests that there has been little progress in the negotiations.  Some analysts believe that it is the US that is dragging its feet, not North Korea.   According to Global Post:

“In short, it’s a trust issue: North Korea has been accused of continuing its nuclear program, and the White House is committed to choking the country with economic sanctions until it’s completely shuttered. But from North Korea’s perspective, the United States has done very little to show its good faith: Since his meeting with Trump, Kim Jong-un has returned the remains of US soldiers, dismantled missile-testing facilities and reeled in some of the anti-American rhetoric. Meanwhile, the US hasn’t done much other than halt its joint military exercises with South Korea.

“’If you add up these confidence-building measures, North Korea has done a lot more than the US has reciprocated — and we don’t know if the US is not making good on something it said it would do,’ said Jenny Town, a research analyst at the Stimson Center and managing editor of the analysis site 38 North. ‘And none of [North Korea’s concessions] are reducing North Korea’s core nuclear capabilities, but they weren’t meant to. These are trust-building measures so that we can move forward. … I think people just have really bad, unrealistic expectations of what North Korea is supposed to be doing after the Singapore summit.’”

Global Post“Nuclear Decision Game” has a for those of you who wish to try out your decision-making abilities in a crisis.

There are reports of at least 23 fighter jet raids on the Syrian town of Idlib and observers in the area claim that the jets were both Syrian and Russian.  There are fears that these airstrikes signal the beginning of the assault on the last rebel stronghold in Syria.  In response, US President Trump tweeted: “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!”  Idlib province is home to about 2.9 million people and it represents a significant strategic crossroad for Syrian, Turkish, Israeli, Kurdish, and Russian interests.  The Russians have amassed its largest naval flotilla off the coast of Syria as a sign how important it regards the outcome of the battle for Idlib.  Iran, Turkey, and Russia have scheduled a summit meeting on Syria for 8 September and the results of that meeting will determine how the battle for Idlib will unfold.

The British still have not figured out how to manage its exit (Brexit) from the European Union (EU).  It is a major economy in the Union, but leaving the Union has raised a large number of issues that were not anticipated by the voters.  And it now appears as if sentiment in Great Britain is changing.  According to Reuters:

“Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

Two journalists from Myanmar, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, were convicted of violating the Official Secrets Act in Myanmar for their reporting on the murder of ten Muslims by Myanmar security forces.  The two were convicted despite evidence that indicated that they had been framed:

“On April 20, a prosecution witness revealed in pre-trial hearings that police planted military documents on Reuters reporters Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo in order to frame them for violating the country’s Official Secrets Act. That admission drew gasps from the courtroom.

“A police officer told the court that he burned notes he made at the time of the reporters’ arrest, but didn’t explain why. Several prosecution witnesses contradicted the police account of where the arrests took place. A police major conceded the “secret” information allegedly found on the reporters wasn’t actually a secret.

“And outside the courtroom, military officials even admitted that the killings had indeed taken place.

The two were sentenced to 7 years in prison.  The court decision is incomprehensible and indicates that Myanmar is far from leaving its authoritarian past even though the military government is no longer in power.  The decision also sullies the reputation of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi who, before she became the leader of the government, was a fierce defender of human rights.  The evidence of crimes against humanity being committed by Myanmar authorities against the Royingha minority in the country is extensive and the news reports were entirely consistent with that evidence.

The US has decided to cancel all funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) which provides “health care, education and social services to Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.”  The move comes after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the US to end the program.  The Hill quotes the State Department spokesperson, Heather Nauert, who justified the decision:

“In her statement, Nauert said that the UNWRA’s business model and fundamental practices were ‘unsustainable.’ She added that the group has been in ‘crisis mode’ for years.

“‘The U.S. will no longer commit further funding to this irredeemably flawed operation,’ she said.  ‘We are very mindful of and deeply concerned regarding the impact upon innocent Palestinians, especially school children, of the failure of UNRWA and key members of the regional and international donor community to reform and reset the UNRWA way of doing business.’

“‘These children are part of the future of the Middle East.  Palestinians, wherever they live, deserve better than an endlessly crisis-driven service provision model.  They deserve to be able to plan for the future.'”

It is not clear how this decision moves the region closer to peace.  It will unquestionably increase the misery of many who rely upon this humanitarian assistance to survive.  Whether those individuals have the ability to persuade the Palestinian authorities, whether the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, to forge a legitimate peace is highly doubtful.

The US has announced that it is going to cut off aid to Pakistan because it has not taken effective action against terrorist groups in its territory.  The US threatened similar action during the Obama Administration, but the election of Imran Khan has further aggravated US-Pakistani relations.  The US is concerned about support for extremists in Afghanistan as the security situation in that country continues to deteriorate.  According to the BBC:

“The Haqqani network is a militant group that focuses most of its activities on neighbouring Afghanistan, which has complained for years that Pakistan allows it to operate unimpeded from its soil across the border.

“The group is linked to the Afghan Taliban – a hardline Islamist movement that poses a major threat to the Afghan government. Pakistani Taliban groups, while associated with the Afghan Taliban, focus on attacks within Pakistan.”

It is not clear what the US action is supposed to accomplish.  It is doubtful that Pakistan will change its behavior in any substantial way since the domestic constraints on effective action in Pakistan are formidable.  US Secretary of State Pompeo is scheduled to visit Pakistan soon, but it is likely that his welcome will be somewhat rocky.

The deadline for a NAFTA agreement with Canada and the US has passed, but the two sides have agreed to keep negotiating.  US President Trump, however, has made the negotiations more difficult with what could be called a highly undiplomatic tweet:  “We shouldn’t have to buy our friends with bad Trade Deals and Free Military Protection!”  The tweet continues: “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new Nafta deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the US after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate Nafta entirely & we will be far better off.”  Fortunately, Canada will soberly assess its own national interest and willlikely not make any decisions in a fit of pique.

For the last two nights, riots have broken out in the eastern German city of Chemnitz.  The riots were occasioned by demonstrations by right-wing groups who were protesting the murder of a German, allegedly by an immigrant.  The riots will likely strengthen the hand of the right-wing party, Alternative for Germany, and complicate the life of Chancellor Merkel.  The Irish Times had an ominous interpretation of the riots:

“The real warning of Chemnitz is how many locals joined the protest. Squeezed by low-paid work and rising rents, many are furious at how new arrivals got free apartments and generous welfare. Germany’s Geneva refugee convention obligations mean little to people with little experience of foreigners in the East German past and real, existential worries in the present.”

The BBC has a podcast on the city of Chemnitz and the struggles of the German people in the eastern part of the country.

The United Nations has called upon China to close down what China calls “re-education camps” for perhaps as many as a million Muslim Uighurs.  China has been very concerned about the loyalties of the Uighurs, particularly since many of the Uighurs have been involved with extremist groups in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan.  The Chinese are quite invested in the Xinjiang Province where the majority of Uighurs live because it is a central part of the Belt and Road Initiative.  The Trump Administration is beginning to apply pressure on China over the issue of how the Uighurs are treated, but that pressure is inconsistent with the need for Chinese cooperation of trade disputes and on North Korea.

Something very strange is going on in Syria.  Russia has sent many naval warships through the Bosphorus to assemble off the coast of northern Syria.  At the same time, US troops in northern Syria have been put on alert and the US is warning Syria against the use of chemical weapons.  Idlib remains the last major rebel stronghold in Syria, and many expect a major battle over the city to unfold soon.  According to al Jazeera:

“The key northwestern Idlib province is the Syrian opposition’s last major bastion in the country. It is currently home to nearly three million people, half of whom are internally displaced, and encloses what was once a major commercial highway linking Syria to Turkey and Jordan.

“Along with sharing a border with Turkey, Idlib is adjacent to Latakia province, a Syrian government stronghold that is home to the biggest military airbase of its major ally, Russia.

“Idlib’s strategic importance is what makes a government-led assault imminent, experts say, and its capture would put the vast majority of the country under Assad’s control.”

There are about 2,000 US troops in northern Syria who are working with Kurdish militias.  Turkey has been working with Iran and Russia to clear out the rebels in Idlib, a stance that places the US in opposition to its NATO ally, the US.  It seems clear that both the US and Russia consider the outcome in Idlib to be extremely important to their respective interests.  To make matters more complicated, the Lebanese newspaper, al-Akhbar, reported on Tuesday on a secret meeting between “a senior US officer led a delegation that included officers from several US intelligence and security agencies” and Major General Ali Mamlouk, head of Syria’s national security office, that lasted four hours (Google can translate the page).  The US apparently made this offer:

“A clear and specific American offer: The United States is ready to withdraw its troops completely from Syrian territory, including the Al-Tanf and East Euphrates according to security arrangements supervised by the Russian and Syrian armies. In exchange for meeting Damascus three American demands,

“First : Iran’s full withdrawal from the Syrian south.

“Second, obtaining written assurances that US companies will receive a share of the oil sector in eastern Syria.

“Third, to provide the Syrian side with the Americans with full data on the terrorist groups and their members, including the numbers of foreign victims of these groups and those who survived, and those who have the possibility of returning to Western countries, considering that ‘the terrorist threat is intercontinental, We can get hurt in the service of international security'”.

The Syrian response was that the US forces were an “occupying” and had to withdraw from Syria before any agreement could be reached.  But Reuters has confirmed the meeting and indicated that the two sides agreed to maintain contacts.  It is not at all clear to me why the US wants Syrian oil fields available to US companies.  The US has not had relations with Syria for many years.

The US and Mexico have agreed upon certain changes in labor and content laws in the automobile industries involved in North American trade and Canada is now mulling whether it wishes to join the new agreement.  The renegotiated terms are good for automotive labor, but its overall impact on labor in both countries is unclear since it institutionalizes higher car prices in North America which will undoubtedly have an effect on labor in other industries.  We will have to wait to see the knock-on effects before a judgment can be made on the overall labor market.  But there is some concern over whether the new rules governing wages and content will be enforced.  Similar labor (and environmental) protections were included in the original NAFTA agreement, but those protections were never enforced.  We will have to wait to see if the new terms are enforceable before we determine the new agreement to be worthwhile.

Between 1904 and 1907 Germany killed thousands of Herero and Namaqua people in what was then known as SouthWest Africa and now Namibia.  It was the first attempted genocide of the 20th century  and in 1985 the United Nations released what is known as the Whitaker Report which discusses genocide.  The Herero and Nama people had rebelled against German colonial rule and the rebellion was ruthlessly suppressed: “The German government recognised” and tried to apologize “for the events” in 2004, “but has ruled out financial compensation for the victims’ descendants.”  Negotiations between Germany and Namibia are still going on.  At the time of the attempted genocide many skulls were sent to Germany for study and the German government has begun the process of returning those skulls.  According to the BBC:

“The skulls of some of the victims were sent to Germany where racial anthropologists studied them as part of an attempt to justify a theory about the superiority of Europeans.

“There are thought to be hundreds of Namibian skulls in Germany and on Wednesday more than 25 remains were handed back.

“Skulls from Germany’s other African colonies, including modern day Cameroon, Tanzania, Rwanda and Togo, were also used in the discredited studies.”

It is hard to figure out why it has been so difficult for Germany to accept full responsibility for the actions of the German state.

Herero Victims

WE are beginning to learn more about why US President Trump cancelled Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to North Korea.  Apparently, North Korean Foreign Minister, Kim Yong Chol, sent a letter to Mr. Pompeo which is reported to have stated that “the US is still not ready to meet [North Korean] expectations in terms of taking a step forward to sign a peace treaty,” and that the current negotiations are “again at stake and may fall apart.”  Additionally, US Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, indicated that the US is prepared to restart military exercises with South Korea which President Trump had suspended last June as a concession to North Korea.  The breakdown of the talks with North Korea leaves the US with few options since both Russia and China have eased up on the sanctions against North Korea and they show no willingness to renew them.  It is safe to say that Kim Jong-un has outplayed President Trump.   We shall see if North Korea resumes bomb or missile testing to test President Trump.

The Atlantic has published an essay on the apparent breakdown in the will of the US, Australia, and Canada to support efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  The author of the essay, Robinson Meyer, is blunt about the failure to address climate change:

“At a basic level, this pattern holds up, well, everywhere. Every country except the United States supports the Paris Agreement on climate change. But no major developed country is on track to meet its Paris climate goals, according to the Climate Action Tracker, an independent analysis produced by three European research organizations. Even Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom—where right-wing governments have made combatting climate change a national priority—seem likely to miss their goals.

“Simply put: This kind of failure, writ large, would devastate Earth in the century to come. The world would blow its stated goal of limiting atmospheric temperature rise. Heatwaves might regularly last for six punishing weeks, sea levels could soar by feet in a few short decades, and certain fragile ecosystems—like the delicate Arctic permafrost or the kaleidoscopic plenty of coral reefs—would disappear from the planet entirely.”

The Washington Post has a stunning graphic on high temperatures in every country on the planet and how the temperatures have risen since 1880.

The United Nations has charged that high-ranking military officials in Myanmar should be investigated for charges of genocide and crimes against humanity.  Since August of 2017, the Myanmar military has been expelling a Muslim minority group–the Royingha–from Myanmar.  The Buddhist majority in Myanmar consider the Royingha to be illegal immigrants from Bangladesh who threaten the stability of the nation despite the fact that many of the Royingha have been living in the Rakhine province of Myanmar for centuries.   The process of expulsion has created around 700,000 refugees and killed thousands.  The Royingha are not considered citizens of Myanmar and many are now living in refugee camps in miserable conditions.  The Diplomat has satellite images of Royingha villages over time which document the destruction of the Royingha habitats since August of 2017.  Human Rights Watch gives an excellent overview of the UN report.

Map of the Rakhine Province in Myanmar

Iran and Syria have signed an economic and military cooperation agreement which will undoubtedly unsettle both the US and Israel.  The Syrian civil war has been going on since 2011 and has cost the country nearly $400 billion.  The war has killed nearly 500,000 people and displaced over 5 million Syrians.  Iran and Russia have been the main backers of the government of Bashar al-Assad.  Now that the civil war has been tapering off (although it is far too premature to suggest that Assad is in full control of the country), the reconstruction of Syria is now a top priority.  But Israel fears Iranian influence in Syria and has asked Russia to limit Iranian influence.  Obviously, Russia has little control over Iranian behavior and it also has little incentive to curtail Iranian help to its Syrian ally.  Israel is also moving closer to Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Muslim majority country which is adamantly opposed to the interests of Iran, a Shia Muslim majority country.   Both Israel and Saudi Arabia fear the growth of Iranian influence, which now stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

Iran’s Growing Influence in the Middle East

US President Trump announced that the US and Mexico had reached an agreement on certain revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  In his comments from the White House today, the President said:

“It’s a big day for trade, big day for our country. A lot of people thought we’d never get here, because we all negotiate tough.  And this is a tremendous thing. This has to do — they used to call it NAFTA. We’re going to call it the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement, and we’ll get rid of the name NAFTA….”

“But I think we’ll give them a chance to probably have a separate deal.  We can have a separate deal or we can put it into this deal.  I like to call this deal the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement.  I think it’s an elegant name.  I think NAFTA has a lot of bad connotations for the United States because it was a rip-off.  It was a deal that was a horrible deal for our country, and I think it’s got a lot of bad connotations to a lot of people.  And so we will probably — you and I will agree to the name.”

The statement is a bit misleading.  The changes in the US-Mexico arrangement involve changing the percentage of automobile components that must be manufactured in North America from 62.5% to 75%.  Additionally, according to the New York Times: “Under the changes agreed to by Mexico and the United States, car companies would be required to manufacture at least 75 percent of an automobile’s value in North America under the new rules, up from 62.5 percent previously, in order to qualify for Nafta’s zero tariffs. They will also be required to use more local steel, aluminum and auto parts, and have 40 percent to 45 percent of the car made by workers earning at least $16 an hour, a boon to both the United States and Canada and a win for labor unions, which have been among Nafta’s biggest critics.”  NAFTA, however, also involves Canada, which has voluntarily agreed to sit out on the US-Mexico negotiations, waiting for a settlement.  Canada has to approve the agreement before it becomes official.  Moreover, NAFTA was approved by Congress and any revision would have to be approved by Congress.   What is interesting about the agreement with Mexico is that it internationalizes Mr. Trump’s tariffs–the net effect will be to raise automobile prices in the US.

The Council of Foreign Relations has published an analysis of the current role of Boko Haram in Nigeria.  The group is an extremist Islamist group (Boko Haram roughly translates as “western education is a sin”) located primarily in northeastern Nigeria.  At one point it controlled a large tract of territory and claimed allegiance to the ISIS caliphate in Syria and Iraq.  Recently, however, it has resorted to hit and run attacks as the Nigerian military has tried to get control of the region.  According to the Council:

“The United Nations’ refugee agency estimates the conflict has displaced 2.4 million people and put more than seven million at risk of starvation. It has also led to the degradation of infrastructure, including the closing or destruction of more than half of the region’s schools, and the near-complete breakdown of an already weak public health system.”

The group seems be riven by ideological fissures and the pressure from the Nigerian central government: its current strategy of disrupting life in Nigeria reflects that weakness but is nonetheless destructive.

The RAND Corporation has released an essay on the likelihood of an Israeli-Iranian conflict which suggests that the chances for an open conflict are increasing.  The US and Israel are clearly concerned about Iranian influence over the Syrian government, and the Israelis have made overtures to the Russians, who also support the Syrian government, to work out a deal for limiting Iranian influence.  The authors do not think that such overtures will be successful;

“While Russia may be interested in limiting the Iranian presence over the longer term, it has little interest in pressing for Iranian force withdrawals since both Moscow and Damascus are dependent on Iranian-backed militias to secure and hold territory. As such, neither the Syrian regime nor Russia are likely to acquiesce to U.S. and Israeli demands for the expulsion of Iranian-linked militias. Therefore, viewing any Russian proposition indicating it will secure the removal of Iranian and LH (Lebanese Hezbollah) forces in Syria as genuine would be imprudent.”

The objective of the Trump Administration is to limit significantly the US presence in Syria.  Such a move would undoubtedly embolden the Iranians and it is probable that Israel would oppose a US withdrawal.  But President Trump has clearly signaled his preference for a US withdrawal.