World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The New York Times reported on Saturday that US officials met with members of the Venezuelan military and the the discussion was about a possible military coup against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.  According to New York Magazine:

“After overcoming skepticism that the Venezuelans were setting them up, the American officials agreed to send a diplomat to meet with the plotters several times in strict “listening mode” between fall 2017 and early 2018. But according to that official, the Venezuelans did not have a real, concrete plan to take down Maduro; instead, they mostly sought advice from the Americans on how to go about it.”

It is indeed fortunate that the US did not act upon the plan, there is probably no way any US support for a coup against Maduro could have served US interests.  It is extraordinary that the Trump Administration even tolerated several meetings on such a ridiculous proposition.  There is no question that Venezuela is ripe for a change of government and, unfortunately, military coups are not highly unusual in Latin America (though they have become much less frequent than in the past).  But any hint of US involvement in a change of government would immediately spark anti-US sentiments.

We do not yet have election results from Sweden, but exit polls suggests that the right-wing Sweden Democrats are polling quite strongly in the national election. The polls suggest that the Sweden Democrats might receive 20 percent of the vote which would give them a very strong voice in the government.  Such a result would also be higher than their counterpart in Germany, the Alternative for Germany.  The right-wing, populist movements in Europe continue to gain strength.  The sentiment continues to be a repudiation of the traditional parties and typical politics, more than an embrace of a right-wing ideology.  The Guardian has a revealing quotation from a Swedish voter:

“‘I want to stir up the stew,’ said Fredrik Sigleifs, 23, casting his ballot for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats in the town art gallery in Sjöbo, just over 30 miles (50km) west of the southern city of Malmö, in a constituency where the populist party won 30% of the vote in the 2014 elections. ‘It’s been the same shit now for as long as you can think.’”

It remains a question whether the left-wing can articulate a similar anti-establishment sentiment.

In a sign of the increased tension between the US and Russia in Syria, the US has conducted live-fire aerial exercises in a remote base in Syria.  The US has also sent an additional 100 marines to the military base in Tanf, Syria.  Tanf is an important border crossing, but is far from the expected battle in Idlib.  It is hard to figure out what this posturing is all about.  Russia warned the US last Thursday that it is preparing to attack in the area of Tanf.  In addition, Russia has conducted large military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean.  I wish I could properly interpret these moves, but it seems dangerous given the current atmosphere in Syria.

Visual Capitalist is a web site that publishes beautiful graphics to demonstrate economic facts.  It has published a stunning graphic of the world’s rich (those with wealth above $50 million) which shows where the global economic elite live.  The distribution of that elite is not surprising, but the rate of growth of that elite in each area reveals a great deal.  Of particular interest is the fact that in two countries, Great Britain and Turkey, the number of the very rich is declining:  the effects of Brexit and Erdogan are obvious.  Some conclusions are important:

“North America still reigns supreme, but Asia is fast catching up and has already surpassed Europe in this measure of wealth. It’s worth noting that in the one-year span between 2016 (Q4) and 2017 (Q4), the ultra-wealthy population for Asia grew a solid 15%….

“The U.S. holds about 30% of the world’s ultra-wealthy population, while China adds up to nearly 11% when including both Mainland China and Hong Kong in the calculations.

“Switzerland (8.4 million people) punches above its weight class, hitting the #9 spot globally, while Canada takes the #5 spot despite having fewer people (36 million) than the majority of the countries on the list.”

The Trump Administration continues to cut funding for the Palestinian people.  It has cut virtually all financial assistance to the Palestinians, including critical funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).  This time, the US has cut $25 million earmarked for the East Jerusalem Hospital Network.  According to the World Health Organization:

“The six East Jerusalem hospitals have had an historic role in the development of the Palestinian health care system and training of health professionals.  They have been the main providers of tertiary referral care for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for health services for which the Ministry of Health is unable to provide, such as cancer care, cardiac and eye surgeries, neonatal intensive care, children’s dialysis and physical rehabilitation of children.”

The cuts are an attempt to pressure the Palestinian Authority to accept the still-unveiled peace plan being formulated by the Trump Administration.  On 6 September, President Trump made this comment in response to a question from Alan Dershowitz:

“And the other thing I did, Alan, I will tell you, is I stopped massive amounts of money that we were paying to the Palestinians and the Palestinian leaders. We were — the United States was paying them tremendous amounts of money. And I’d say, you’ll get money, but we’re not paying you until we make a deal. If we don’t make a deal, we’re not paying. And that’s going to have a little impact.”

Political pressure to force a deal is entirely legitimate, but this money was the last part of the money the US has historically given to the Palestinian people.  So there are two points to ponder.  First, the US no longer has any financial leverage over the Palestinian Authority.  When the peace deal is made public, there will no longer be any way to exert financial pressure toward its acceptance.  Second, putting pressure on sick people does not put pressure on the political authorities.  Indeed, the move smacks of collective punishment on the most vulnerable, and it makes the US seem completely unfeeling.

China is consolidating its control over the South China Sea.  China claims the South China Sea to be part of its national territory, using what it calls the “Nine-Dash Line” to outline its sovereignty.  The international law of the sea does not recognize the Chinese claims and instead uses the more traditional techniques of measuring the seas from the coastline of the states that abut the sea.  The map below shows the difference in the two claims:  the Chinese claim is the line in red; the international law basis for territory is outlined in blue.  In order to buttress its claim, China has been building up reefs and shoals in the South China Sea and building military installations on those artificial islands (international law does not recognize artificial islands as a basis for sovereignty).  Because the Chinese consider the artificial islands to be sovereign territory, it believes that it has a 12-mile buffer from international waters.  The US and Great Britain have challenged that belief by sailing their naval vessels within the 12-mile limit asserting their rights to sail through international waters.  At some point, push will come to shove in this diplomatic tussle.

There was a summit meeting today of representatives from Turkey, Iran, and Russia over the next steps to address the last rebel stronghold in Syria in the province of Idlib.  Turkey has proposed a peace agreement, but Russia and Iran decided to support Syrian President Assad in his efforts to put down the rebellion.  The decision likely means a military assault which will mean significant loss of life.  An Islamic Relief worker in Idlib published an impassioned op-ed in the Guardian:

“Even as we stare death in the face, however, I fear the international community will once again fail to act and allow one of the worst humanitarian crises in living memory to go unchallenged.

“For seven years we have seen hospitals, markets, schools, mosques, people’s homes, whole cities turned to dust, and people’s bodies and minds broken beyond repair. While we bleed, world leaders respond with meek platitudes and statements of “concern”.

“Where were they when whole families suffocated to death in chemical attacks, when barrages of barrel bombs killed thousands and turned ancient cities to dust? Where are they now that one “de-escalation” zone after another is turned into a bloody battleground?

“This collective inaction and inability to bring the warring parties to the table in any kind of meaningful way will haunt the public conscience for generations to come. Despite growing efforts to sweep this tragedy under the carpet and pretend things are getting back to normal, these atrocities cannot be erased or forgotten.”

The evidence of a large-scale attack, including the use of chemical weapons, is mounting and the US, France, and Great Britain have threatened to retaliate in the case of the use of chemical weapons.  There is a real danger that the world could be faced with a massive humanitarian crisis and a widening war.

Today marked the end of the 60 day comment period for US President Trump’s decision to put tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China.  We will have to see if he implements them, but he now has the authority to do so.  He also threatened today to put tariffs on another $267 billion of Chinese imports.  Reuters quotes Larry Kudlow, one of President Trump’s economic advisers about the purpose of the tariffs:

“Specifically, Kudlow said, the United States was seeking ‘zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, zero subsidies, stop the IP theft, stop the technology transfer, allow Americans to own their own companies.’

“’Those have been our asks for many months and so far those asks have not been satisfied,’ he said. ‘However, hope springs eternal.’”

The tariff war seems to be about economics.  It is not.  It is primarily about technological innovation and supremacy.  Kudlow’s comments clearly indicate US concern about preserving control over intellectual property and its ownership.

The Indian Supreme Court has decided that a colonial-era law, known as Section 377 of the penal code, that criminalized “unnatural consensual sex” was unconstitutional.  The ruling means that the LGBTQ community in India now does not need to fear criminal prosecution for their behavior.  The decision does not legalize same-sex marriage, but it is a dramatic step forward in the expansion of human rights in the world.  According to PinkNews:

“Justice DY Chandrachud said that LGBT+ people “have equal rights,” adding that “this case is much more than just decriminalising a provision.

“It is about an aspiration to realise constitutional rights and the equal existence of the LGBT community as other citizens.”

Whether these rights will be regarded as universal remains to be seen.  More than 70 countries still have laws criminalizing homosexuality.

Activists Celebrate the Decision

Sweden is holding its national elections on Sunday, and there is growing evidence that the Sweden Democrats, a right-wing party opposed to immigration, will do very well at the polls.  The Sweden Democrats have strong support in the rural areas of Sweden.   Sweden admitted more than 160,000 refugees seeking political asylum in 2015 and the influx of refugees has coincided with an increase in crime in the country, although there is no evidence of a connection between the two facts.  The election will likely not produce a majority government, so smaller parties, including the Sweden Democrats, will have an outsized voice in the new government.  The rise of the right wing is testimony to the radical changes in the ethos of the open society that has been the hallmark of Swedish society for many years.

There is an interesting proposal in the US Congress to build “concrete seawalls, earthen barriers, floating gates and steel levees on the Texas Gulf Coast.”  The purpose of these projects is to build property coast from the devastating effects of storm surges and storm damage that may be getting worse because of climate change.  There is little question that property damage from storms like Harvey and Sandy was extensive and that the US must take steps to minimize the damage as much as possible.  But what makes the proposal so interesting and difficult to think about is that much of the property being protected are oil refineries which produce the very fuels that aggravate climate change through greenhouse gases.  Do we build these structures in order to protect the oil industry?  Do we build these structures to protect an energy that most Americans use on a daily basis?  Or do we build these structures in order to protect ordinary property owners who have nothing to do with the oil industry?  According to the AP:

“Construction in Texas could begin in several months on the three sections of storm barrier. While plans are still being finalized, some dirt levees will be raised to about 17 feet high, and 6 miles of 19-foot-tall floodwalls would be built or strengthened around Port Arthur, a Texas-Louisiana border locale of pungent chemical smells and towering knots of steel pipes.

“The town of 55,000 includes the Saudi-controlled Motiva oil refinery, the nation’s largest, as well as refineries owned by oil giants Valero Energy Corp. and Total S.A. There are also almost a dozen petrochemical facilities.”

One way to think about this plan is to pose the question of whether such structures would be built in the absence of the oil industry’s interests.  If the answer to that question is no, then perhaps the oil industry should be expected to pay a larger share of the projects’ costs.

Areas of Southeast US Susceptible to Storm Surge Damage

Three months ago, US President Trump believed that his meeting with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, had made significant progress in deescalating the conflict with North Korea:

“There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” (Tweet, June 13)

“And the big thing is, it will be a total denuclearization, which is already starting taking place. (Cabinet meeting, June 21)

“I have solved that problem. Now, we’re getting it memorialized and all, but that problem is largely solved, and part of the reason is we signed, number one, a very good document.” (Remarks to reporters, June 15)

Those predictions were premature.  The evidence suggests that there has been little progress in the negotiations.  Some analysts believe that it is the US that is dragging its feet, not North Korea.   According to Global Post:

“In short, it’s a trust issue: North Korea has been accused of continuing its nuclear program, and the White House is committed to choking the country with economic sanctions until it’s completely shuttered. But from North Korea’s perspective, the United States has done very little to show its good faith: Since his meeting with Trump, Kim Jong-un has returned the remains of US soldiers, dismantled missile-testing facilities and reeled in some of the anti-American rhetoric. Meanwhile, the US hasn’t done much other than halt its joint military exercises with South Korea.

“’If you add up these confidence-building measures, North Korea has done a lot more than the US has reciprocated — and we don’t know if the US is not making good on something it said it would do,’ said Jenny Town, a research analyst at the Stimson Center and managing editor of the analysis site 38 North. ‘And none of [North Korea’s concessions] are reducing North Korea’s core nuclear capabilities, but they weren’t meant to. These are trust-building measures so that we can move forward. … I think people just have really bad, unrealistic expectations of what North Korea is supposed to be doing after the Singapore summit.’”

Global Post“Nuclear Decision Game” has a for those of you who wish to try out your decision-making abilities in a crisis.

There are reports of at least 23 fighter jet raids on the Syrian town of Idlib and observers in the area claim that the jets were both Syrian and Russian.  There are fears that these airstrikes signal the beginning of the assault on the last rebel stronghold in Syria.  In response, US President Trump tweeted: “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!”  Idlib province is home to about 2.9 million people and it represents a significant strategic crossroad for Syrian, Turkish, Israeli, Kurdish, and Russian interests.  The Russians have amassed its largest naval flotilla off the coast of Syria as a sign how important it regards the outcome of the battle for Idlib.  Iran, Turkey, and Russia have scheduled a summit meeting on Syria for 8 September and the results of that meeting will determine how the battle for Idlib will unfold.

The British still have not figured out how to manage its exit (Brexit) from the European Union (EU).  It is a major economy in the Union, but leaving the Union has raised a large number of issues that were not anticipated by the voters.  And it now appears as if sentiment in Great Britain is changing.  According to Reuters:

“Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

Two journalists from Myanmar, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, were convicted of violating the Official Secrets Act in Myanmar for their reporting on the murder of ten Muslims by Myanmar security forces.  The two were convicted despite evidence that indicated that they had been framed:

“On April 20, a prosecution witness revealed in pre-trial hearings that police planted military documents on Reuters reporters Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo in order to frame them for violating the country’s Official Secrets Act. That admission drew gasps from the courtroom.

“A police officer told the court that he burned notes he made at the time of the reporters’ arrest, but didn’t explain why. Several prosecution witnesses contradicted the police account of where the arrests took place. A police major conceded the “secret” information allegedly found on the reporters wasn’t actually a secret.

“And outside the courtroom, military officials even admitted that the killings had indeed taken place.

The two were sentenced to 7 years in prison.  The court decision is incomprehensible and indicates that Myanmar is far from leaving its authoritarian past even though the military government is no longer in power.  The decision also sullies the reputation of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi who, before she became the leader of the government, was a fierce defender of human rights.  The evidence of crimes against humanity being committed by Myanmar authorities against the Royingha minority in the country is extensive and the news reports were entirely consistent with that evidence.

The US has decided to cancel all funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) which provides “health care, education and social services to Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.”  The move comes after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the US to end the program.  The Hill quotes the State Department spokesperson, Heather Nauert, who justified the decision:

“In her statement, Nauert said that the UNWRA’s business model and fundamental practices were ‘unsustainable.’ She added that the group has been in ‘crisis mode’ for years.

“‘The U.S. will no longer commit further funding to this irredeemably flawed operation,’ she said.  ‘We are very mindful of and deeply concerned regarding the impact upon innocent Palestinians, especially school children, of the failure of UNRWA and key members of the regional and international donor community to reform and reset the UNRWA way of doing business.’

“‘These children are part of the future of the Middle East.  Palestinians, wherever they live, deserve better than an endlessly crisis-driven service provision model.  They deserve to be able to plan for the future.'”

It is not clear how this decision moves the region closer to peace.  It will unquestionably increase the misery of many who rely upon this humanitarian assistance to survive.  Whether those individuals have the ability to persuade the Palestinian authorities, whether the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, to forge a legitimate peace is highly doubtful.

The US has announced that it is going to cut off aid to Pakistan because it has not taken effective action against terrorist groups in its territory.  The US threatened similar action during the Obama Administration, but the election of Imran Khan has further aggravated US-Pakistani relations.  The US is concerned about support for extremists in Afghanistan as the security situation in that country continues to deteriorate.  According to the BBC:

“The Haqqani network is a militant group that focuses most of its activities on neighbouring Afghanistan, which has complained for years that Pakistan allows it to operate unimpeded from its soil across the border.

“The group is linked to the Afghan Taliban – a hardline Islamist movement that poses a major threat to the Afghan government. Pakistani Taliban groups, while associated with the Afghan Taliban, focus on attacks within Pakistan.”

It is not clear what the US action is supposed to accomplish.  It is doubtful that Pakistan will change its behavior in any substantial way since the domestic constraints on effective action in Pakistan are formidable.  US Secretary of State Pompeo is scheduled to visit Pakistan soon, but it is likely that his welcome will be somewhat rocky.

The deadline for a NAFTA agreement with Canada and the US has passed, but the two sides have agreed to keep negotiating.  US President Trump, however, has made the negotiations more difficult with what could be called a highly undiplomatic tweet:  “We shouldn’t have to buy our friends with bad Trade Deals and Free Military Protection!”  The tweet continues: “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new Nafta deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the US after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate Nafta entirely & we will be far better off.”  Fortunately, Canada will soberly assess its own national interest and willlikely not make any decisions in a fit of pique.

For the last two nights, riots have broken out in the eastern German city of Chemnitz.  The riots were occasioned by demonstrations by right-wing groups who were protesting the murder of a German, allegedly by an immigrant.  The riots will likely strengthen the hand of the right-wing party, Alternative for Germany, and complicate the life of Chancellor Merkel.  The Irish Times had an ominous interpretation of the riots:

“The real warning of Chemnitz is how many locals joined the protest. Squeezed by low-paid work and rising rents, many are furious at how new arrivals got free apartments and generous welfare. Germany’s Geneva refugee convention obligations mean little to people with little experience of foreigners in the East German past and real, existential worries in the present.”

The BBC has a podcast on the city of Chemnitz and the struggles of the German people in the eastern part of the country.

The United Nations has called upon China to close down what China calls “re-education camps” for perhaps as many as a million Muslim Uighurs.  China has been very concerned about the loyalties of the Uighurs, particularly since many of the Uighurs have been involved with extremist groups in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan.  The Chinese are quite invested in the Xinjiang Province where the majority of Uighurs live because it is a central part of the Belt and Road Initiative.  The Trump Administration is beginning to apply pressure on China over the issue of how the Uighurs are treated, but that pressure is inconsistent with the need for Chinese cooperation of trade disputes and on North Korea.

Something very strange is going on in Syria.  Russia has sent many naval warships through the Bosphorus to assemble off the coast of northern Syria.  At the same time, US troops in northern Syria have been put on alert and the US is warning Syria against the use of chemical weapons.  Idlib remains the last major rebel stronghold in Syria, and many expect a major battle over the city to unfold soon.  According to al Jazeera:

“The key northwestern Idlib province is the Syrian opposition’s last major bastion in the country. It is currently home to nearly three million people, half of whom are internally displaced, and encloses what was once a major commercial highway linking Syria to Turkey and Jordan.

“Along with sharing a border with Turkey, Idlib is adjacent to Latakia province, a Syrian government stronghold that is home to the biggest military airbase of its major ally, Russia.

“Idlib’s strategic importance is what makes a government-led assault imminent, experts say, and its capture would put the vast majority of the country under Assad’s control.”

There are about 2,000 US troops in northern Syria who are working with Kurdish militias.  Turkey has been working with Iran and Russia to clear out the rebels in Idlib, a stance that places the US in opposition to its NATO ally, the US.  It seems clear that both the US and Russia consider the outcome in Idlib to be extremely important to their respective interests.  To make matters more complicated, the Lebanese newspaper, al-Akhbar, reported on Tuesday on a secret meeting between “a senior US officer led a delegation that included officers from several US intelligence and security agencies” and Major General Ali Mamlouk, head of Syria’s national security office, that lasted four hours (Google can translate the page).  The US apparently made this offer:

“A clear and specific American offer: The United States is ready to withdraw its troops completely from Syrian territory, including the Al-Tanf and East Euphrates according to security arrangements supervised by the Russian and Syrian armies. In exchange for meeting Damascus three American demands,

“First : Iran’s full withdrawal from the Syrian south.

“Second, obtaining written assurances that US companies will receive a share of the oil sector in eastern Syria.

“Third, to provide the Syrian side with the Americans with full data on the terrorist groups and their members, including the numbers of foreign victims of these groups and those who survived, and those who have the possibility of returning to Western countries, considering that ‘the terrorist threat is intercontinental, We can get hurt in the service of international security'”.

The Syrian response was that the US forces were an “occupying” and had to withdraw from Syria before any agreement could be reached.  But Reuters has confirmed the meeting and indicated that the two sides agreed to maintain contacts.  It is not at all clear to me why the US wants Syrian oil fields available to US companies.  The US has not had relations with Syria for many years.

The US and Mexico have agreed upon certain changes in labor and content laws in the automobile industries involved in North American trade and Canada is now mulling whether it wishes to join the new agreement.  The renegotiated terms are good for automotive labor, but its overall impact on labor in both countries is unclear since it institutionalizes higher car prices in North America which will undoubtedly have an effect on labor in other industries.  We will have to wait to see the knock-on effects before a judgment can be made on the overall labor market.  But there is some concern over whether the new rules governing wages and content will be enforced.  Similar labor (and environmental) protections were included in the original NAFTA agreement, but those protections were never enforced.  We will have to wait to see if the new terms are enforceable before we determine the new agreement to be worthwhile.

Between 1904 and 1907 Germany killed thousands of Herero and Namaqua people in what was then known as SouthWest Africa and now Namibia.  It was the first attempted genocide of the 20th century  and in 1985 the United Nations released what is known as the Whitaker Report which discusses genocide.  The Herero and Nama people had rebelled against German colonial rule and the rebellion was ruthlessly suppressed: “The German government recognised” and tried to apologize “for the events” in 2004, “but has ruled out financial compensation for the victims’ descendants.”  Negotiations between Germany and Namibia are still going on.  At the time of the attempted genocide many skulls were sent to Germany for study and the German government has begun the process of returning those skulls.  According to the BBC:

“The skulls of some of the victims were sent to Germany where racial anthropologists studied them as part of an attempt to justify a theory about the superiority of Europeans.

“There are thought to be hundreds of Namibian skulls in Germany and on Wednesday more than 25 remains were handed back.

“Skulls from Germany’s other African colonies, including modern day Cameroon, Tanzania, Rwanda and Togo, were also used in the discredited studies.”

It is hard to figure out why it has been so difficult for Germany to accept full responsibility for the actions of the German state.

Herero Victims