World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Aaargh!  Just when I thought the economic situation in Europe couldn’t get any worse, I read this article about the German economy from Der Spiegel.  Apparently the German debt situation is comparable to some of the economies currently under stress–we just haven’t been paying attention to it because the German economy was always growing.  Now that the overall European economy is slowing down, the stress on the Germans will intensify.  The Europeans clearly need some external funding stimulus, but I can’t see where it would come from.

The situation in Egypt continues to deteriorate as protests against the military turn increasingly violent.  The size of the protests is extraordinary which makes categorizing the movement difficult.  Quite clearly, the protesters oppose continued military control.  But are the current protests simply a continuation of those last spring?  Or are the current protests something different.  We’ll have to watch how these protests evolve.

South Korea just ratified a highly controversial Free Trade Agreement with the United States.  The agreement was stalled in the US Congress for a number of years, and only recently passed.  The passage in the South Korean Parliament was accompanied by fist fights and the use of tear gas.  The opposition to Free Trade seems to be growing globally as the economic situation gets for difficult.

The contagion from the European economic crisis continues to spread.  Because the East Asian economies continue to rely on exports, the looming recession in Europe will reduce economic activity in Asia.  Many of the Asian countries have made half-hearted efforts to shift their economic activity away from export promotion to domestic consumption.  Their failure to do so means that they cannot escape a slowdown either.  So the US will slowdown because of the increased credit risk affecting US banks, and Asia will slow down because of a lack of demand.  Unless something changes these dynamics, a global slowdown is inevitable.

The US and other nations have intensified their sanctions against Iran.  Sanctions have a spotty record of effectiveness, and they often tend to punish the country as a whole and not the decision-makers of the offending country.  The move could simply be an attempt to exhaust all peaceful alternatives to persuade Iran to change course on its nuclear program.  Or it could be a sincere attempt to persuade the decision-makers in Iran that the costs of pursuing nuclear weapons is too high.  Or it could be an attempt to divide the Iranian leadership which is know to be at loggerheads with each other.  We’ll have to watch the next moves before we can decide which is which.

The “German problem” resurfaces.  We’ll see how far the resentment goes.  It’s likely, however, to increase over the next few months unless the Germans alter their position concerning the lending policies of the European Central Bank.

The Center-Right Party won in Spain, and the socialists were trounced.  Spain now becomes the fifth European country to change governments during this economic crunch.  The people don’t seem to think that the situation will improve in the country, but it was clear they wanted to punish the party that had been ruling in Spain for so long.   We’ll see whats policies the new government is able to implement.

The protests in Cairo turned violent as opposition to the military grows.  The protesters are a diverse group, so it’s hard to characterize the nature of the protest.  With elections a week away, we’ll see if the military tries to postpone them.  I doubt that it would do anything so foolish, but widespread violence could have a significant effect on the outcome.

This article is tragic but not unexpected.  Given the economic stresses on the world’s economies, it was optimistic to think that progress could be made on measures to protect the global environment. Nonetheless, the failure to reach an agreement means that individual nations will have to make their best efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  A international treaty is not absolutely necessary for progress, but it would have made the national efforts a little easier.

The situation in Egypt has been slowly building over the last few weeks as the deadline for elections approached.  It has finally erupted in violence, interestingly over the issue of whether the protesters could set up permanent protest camps in Tahrir Square.  The substantive issues revolve around the process by which the new constitution will be written and the perception that the military was taking a role that was considered too intrusive.  I suspect that these protests will go on for some time–the protesters have far too much invested in the revolution to see it sidetracked now.

We will get a good read on the direction of the Spanish economy after the elections there on Sunday.   The Popular Party, a right wing party, has promised both tough austerity measures plus a reduction in unemployment.  I am not sure how that can happen, at least not in the short or medium term.  But we’ll see how the bond markets react on Monday to the election.

The United States will play an important role in the unfolding economic situation in Europe this week.  A budget agreement is supposed to emerge from the discussions of the so-called “supercommittee” that was charged to come up with about $1.2 trillion in budget debt reductions by 23 November.  Right now it seems unlikely that this will happen.  We’ll see whether the markets interpret the lack of an agreement as evidence of continued dysfunction with the American government.  Such an interpretation will likely trigger off great anxiety within global markets.

The Dalai Lama gave an interview to the BBC in which he discussed the recent immolations in Tibet.  The interview gives a sense of the desperation among some of the Tibetans, but also a sense that the sacrifices of the nuns and monks will not change Chinese policy.  The Dalai Lama’s wisdom is apparent, but the situation seems unchangeable.

There have been some small changes in Burma over the last few months, all of them encouraging to those who support greater political freedoms in the country (I refuse to call the country Myanmar because the name change was initiated by the Burmese military.  If and when the people of Burma approve the name change, I will switch over).  US Secretary of State Clinton has announced some important reciprocating changes in US foreign policy toward Burma.  I don’t expect swift change, but it does appear as if the long nightmare of the Burmese people may be ending.

Another area which has been experiencing policy changes is the South China Sea.  There are a number of states who have made territorial claims to the Sea, and the claims have led to violent exchanges among the competing states.  China has recently ramped up its rhetoric over the area, largely due to its belief that the United States is increasing its presence there.  The claims have great significance since it is estimated that there is a great deal of oil in the region.  Keep your eyes on this issue.

The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, but the latest news about the defections from the Syrian military suggests that the violence will escalate significantly.  It suggests that Assad has literally no option other than to hang tough.  His final window would be to accept the terms of the Arab League to step down (presumably there is an implicit promise of asylum someplace).  But the offer only has a three-day opening.  The clock is ticking.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta raised concerns about the unintended consequences of an Israeli strike against Iran.  The timing of the speech suggests that the US is pushing back hard against those parts of the Israeli government pushing for an attack.  Significantly, President Obama did not make the speech–he obviously prefers to stay out of this particular discussion for political reasons.  If Obama does make a statement, it is time to get worried about the likelihood of an attack.

Spain is the next domino to get hit by the European debt crisis contagion.  Spain is the penultimate domino: all eyes will now turn to France.  If French bond yields rise, then the situation cannot be contained.  For those who have a deep interest in this particular topic, there is an index that gives us an insight into the “fear factor” about banks.  It is called the LIBOR–London Interbank Offer Rate.  The LIBOR is the interest rate that banks pay to each other for short-term loans (some as short as overnight loans).  Since banks generally trust each other, the rate is usually very low (around 0.25%).  Recently the LIBOR has crept up to 0.49%, almost double the usual rate.  At the height of the credit crisis in 2008, the LIBOR actually got up to around 4%, a rate that essentially signals total hysteria within the banking center.  So if you want to check the “mental” state of the markets, keep an eye on the LIBOR.

President Obama is in Australia announcing a new military commitment to the Pacific Region.  There are a number of possibilities here.  First, President Obama is taking the first step to address what he considers to be a potential security threat posed by the rise of China.  Second, he may be making the move to reassure American allies in the region that they can count on American support in the event of Chinese aggressive action against them.  Third, he may be responding to domestic pressures from the US military and other organized groups within the US to assure them all a role as the US winds down its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Note, however, that there is a fourth possibility that Americans never think about but which preoccupies the Chinese: that the US intends to prevent the further increase of Chinese power. As the analysts, you need to figure out which one (or combination) is closest to the truth.

We’ve talked about the growing income inequality in the world, but the Tehran Times has an interesting interpretation of the phenomenon.  This interpretation of the economic issue is pervasive in many countries in the world  and it represents a critique of market capitalism that resonates strongly with the poor.

The fear of contagion from the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and Italy has now spread from Europe to the US.  Specifically, one of the ratings agencies (Fitch) warned of the exposure of US banks to the credit risks in Europe.  As we discussed in class, we don’t really know how exposed the banks are since they are no longer required to declare publicly their exposure to these kinds of debts.  It is impossible to assess the seriousness of the risk, but we are now entering a stage in which psychology may trump reality.  But, if you want to get really frightened, then check out this article:  talk about the fox guarding the chicken coop!

One of the criteria of statehood is having control over what goes on in one’s territory.  As the Palestinians pursue statehood in the UN, there are real questions about whether the Palestinian Authority actually does control the territory it claims.  Israel collects the tax revenues generated within the Occupied Territories and disburses them to the PA.  Recently, however, it has refused to hand over the tax revenues to the PA.  The question arises:  do the Palestinians control their own territory?  Does it make a difference that Israel, as an occupying power, undermines the claim to Palestinian statehood, the very outcome it has publicly opposed?  Is there any way out of this Catch-22?

We’re getting a little more information on the Iranian nuclear program.  The Washington Post ran an article that detailed the work of a Russian scientist cited by the IAEA as evidence of an ambitious weapons program.  But, since my job is to make your lives as difficult as possible, I am posting another article, by Gareth Porter, in which it seems as if Vyacheslav Danilenko could have simply been working on a completely different set of non-weapons problems.  Now what advice do you give to President Obama?

For a number of years the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment in the world has been an especially troubling development.  In world politics, such sentiments raise important questions about what constitutes the “nation.”  There have been a number of violent incidents in Europe and the most recent one, in Germany, is truly horrifying.  It is very hard to separate the contemporary incident from the history of the German nation.  It is, however, very important to do so.

A little bit of a brain puzzler (this link will not be on the quiz) to inspire everyone to come up with a spectacular conspiracy theory/alien invasion/psychedelic cerebral brouhaha.  Check out this link.

Iran has been no stranger to sabotage, and this recent blast is an example of how the regime tries to downplay the possibility that these violent acts are engineered by other states.  Nonetheless, one cannot easily dismiss the possibility that the United States, Israel, or dissident Iranians are responsible for the explosions.  A second source identifies an important scientist killed in the blast.

I don’t know how many of you have been following the news about the Keystone Project, which was an effort to build a pipeline from Canada to the US for the transport of oil from tar sands.  The environmental opposition to the project has been intense for a number of reasons.  Interestingly, after President Obama announced his intention to delay the project, the Canadians are working to sell that same oil to Asian countries.  The shift raises an interesting question:  since the oil is going to be produced and consumed anyway (with all the attendant release of greenhouse gases), should the US go ahead and build the pipeline?

The quiz on Wednesday, 16 November, will be on the lecture notes on Just War, the chapter by Keylor, and NSC-68 (all on the syllabus).  In addition, the newspaper articles from 10-14 November will be on the quiz.

Apparently, some are having trouble accessing the posted news articles from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.  Please do not register or subscribe to these sites.  I use this method so that no one has to pay for the readings.  I will not ask any questions about articles that students have difficulty in accessing.  So ignore those articles.  I’ll try to make sure that the problem does not arise again.

Berlusconi is gone (for now).  I honestly did not think that he would leave so easily.  Now the big question is what skeletons in the closet Mr. Monti will find.

Personalities often play an important role in diplomacy, and no where was this more apparent than in the Middle East peace negotiations over many years.  A central negotiator for the US was Dennis Ross who was strongly supported by some and vilified by many.  He has announced his resignation which suggests that the US role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will come to an end for what will probably be  an extended period of time.

China sets out its terms for assistance to Europe.  Some fascinating demands, both of which symbolize China’s rise to great power status.

The Arab League finally suspends Syria.  It’s unlikely that the move will have any effect, but the action places the League on the right side of history.