World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

I heard speeches by Madeline Albright and Hillary Clinton today at Wellesley College.  It was the kickoff for the first summer institute of the Women in Public Service Project and it was truly inspiring.  There were 50 women leaders from all over the world (although the majority were from the Middle East and North Africa) getting together for two weeks of workshops on leadership skills.  The energy and commitment was palpable and powerful.

Leaving the conference, I heard about the report by the Federal Reserve on how the Great Recession of 2007-08 affected the American middle class and I went from high to low.  In just 3 years (2007-2010), the American middle class lost about 40% of its wealth (income and assets, most importantly the value of a house).  This precipitous loss was felt most acutely by younger middle class families.  Unfortunately, the economic horizon remains cloudy for most Americans (and for most of the world right now).

And then tonight I read this report from the BBC on looming resource shortages in the world.  It is a Malthusian analysis–that is, it assumes a straight line extrapolation of current trends–that I do not believe to be a valid frame of analysis (human systems are incredibly dynamic and ingenious).  But much of the analysis deals with the next 20 years, which is a short time period to apply changes and fixes.  Needless to say, the report is very depressing.  I think it is just time to go to bed.

The climate change debate is pretty much settled, except for those individuals who have a financial interest in hydrocarbons.  But getting accurate data on a global scale is admittedly very difficult.  A new study suggests that the CO2 emissions from China have been significantly understated over the years, due to poor reporting at the local level.    But a 20% underestimate is significant.  It may be the case that the world is already past the tipping point toward a new climate.

Talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency yielded no tangible progress.  The main issue in these talks concerned IAEA access to one of the nuclear facilities.  Access to the Parchin facility is not required by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but members of the UN Security Council believe that the facility is being used to test explosive devices that may be used in a nuclear warhead.  I doubt that the end of negotiations will trigger any immediate action, but the upcoming June meeting in Moscow will unquestionably be a turning point.

Many countries have recently experienced economic slowdowns: Brazil. India, and China.  In one of these cases, however, the cause of the slowdown seems to be profoundly political and not economic.  The Economist analyzes the slowdown in India and places the blame squarely on the governance system.

The New York Times reports that the number of suicides in the military has, for the first time, been higher than the number of combat deaths.  This legacy of the war in Afghanistan is one of the saddest, and symptomatic of the difficulties in fighting the war and the ambiguities of its mission.   It is also an important indicator of the separation between the military and civilian life, a dangerous divide in any democracy.

The Russians are great chess players, and they checked the US in its efforts to organize international action with respect to Syria.  The Russians proposed an international conference and insisted that Iran, a major ally of Syria’s President Assad, be invited to the conference.  This gambit puts the US in an awkward situation: it desperately wants international action and needs Russian participation in an international conference, but it doesn’t recognize Iran and would be loathe to sit at the same table with the Iranians.  Let’s see what move the US proposes to move forward.

As anticipated, Spain has asked for money to bailout its failing banks.  It is asking for about $125 billion, and the request comes after repeated promises by the government that outside money was not necessary.  We don’t yet know what the EU and the IMF are asking for in return for the line of credit,but it seems certain that the Spanish will be required to make even more sacrifices.  With an unemployment rate of 25% it’s hard to imagine how difficult life in Spain will become.

The inability of the United Nations to intervene effectively in Syria has once again raised the question whether the Security Council can ever fulfill its mandate.  Major changes are probably necessary in the structure of the Council, not surprisingly since it was created in 1945 when the world was a vastly different place.  Here is an interesting analysis of the possibilities for change.

The Palestinian Authority has indicated that it is willing to accept “non-member state” status in the United Nations.  It had earlier tried to obtain member status, but that effort died because of the threat of a US veto.  Non-member status is a step up from the PA’s current observer status and requires only a majority vote within the General Assembly, side-stepping the veto threat in the Security Council.  The US and Israel will fight this move, but I suspect that the PA has the votes.

There are reports that Spain will ask the EU to bail out its banking system.  This step is unprecedented and contrary to eurozone rules.  The reports are that the request will be made on Saturday and we’ll see how Germany responds.  There has been a softening of the German position in recent weeks, but bailing out the banking system in a member state opens up a real can of worms as far as sovereignty is concerned.  We live in interesting times.

The opposition forces in Syria appear to be well-armed, but we don”t know who supplies them.  Most have assumed that the arms are smuggled in and paid for by Saudi Arabia and/or sympathetic Western governments.  The truth, however, is a little more mundane: the weapons are purchased through prisoner ransoms from the Syrian army itself.  The greed of the individuals keeps the violence going.  The price is paid by innocent lives.

Some countries are called “The” as in The United States.  Others, like Ukraine and Congo, don’t have the definite article in their name.  A curious feature of language and the BBC explores how the difference evolved.

US-Pakistani relations are about as bad as they ever have been.  There are  numerous reasons why this state of affairs exists, but it seems as if matters are reaching a breaking point.  Pakistan is counting on the US needing Pakistani logistical support for the war in Afghanistan, but that dependence is lessening every day.  It’s hard to imagine a complete rupture of relations, but it is probably safe to say that the special relationship is over.

Another massacre is being reported in Syria, with many noncombatants killed, some by stabbing.  After 15 months of violence, it seems as if Syria is entering into a full-fledged civil war, although the opposition movement still seems to be incoherent and uncoordinated.  The number of platitudinous statements coming out of the diplomatic corps is reaching an all-time high, but effective action still seems quite remote.

National Public Radio interviewed Joseph Stiglitz on his new book on income inequality in the United States.   Stiglitz (an Amherst grad) is a Nobel Prize winner who has been a persistent critic of contemporary economic policy.  The interview is intelligent and compelling.

The BBC has done a review of the policy positions taken by the two candidates in the Egyptian presidential election.   Ahmed Shafiq, an official from the Mubarak regime, is one of the candidates, although it is hard to believe that someone with his background could have the confidence of those who participated in the revolution against Mubarak.  Muhammed Mursi is the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood.  The second round of the election is scheduled for 16-17 June–the Greek elections are also on the 17th.  It should be an interesting day.

Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have exchanged fire across their border.  Relations between the two states have historically been tense, and the two states fought a war over the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan in the 1990s.  There has been a formal cease fire, but it has been spotty at best, and it appears as if tensions are on the rise again.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is in China and the Chinese leadership has received him warmly.  Russia and China have apparently closed ranks on the issue of Syria, arguing that there should be no UN intervention in that state.  The refusal of the two countries to even consider humanitarian intervention in what is now a full-fledged civil war means that there is little hope to bring aid to the Syrian people.

Stephen Walt has reported on a 20-country survey of what content is being taught in the field of international relations at the college level.  His review is fascinating, noting some of the regional variations in the courses.  But the 3500 scholars surveyed generally cover the field in a manner consistent with how the subject is taught in the 5 College system.

The number of issues raised by Greek economic turmoil is virtually impossible to tally.  Insurance companies have now refused to insure Greek contracts to exporters, so Greece, heavily dependent on imports, is running out of a number of important items.  These shortages make it impossible for the Greek economy to function, and thus the debt situation simply deepens.  We are witnessing a vicious spiral downward from which there seems to be no escape other than for Greece to leave the euro.

According to the German journal, Der Spiegel, Israel is fitting nuclear warheads on missiles carried by submarines built by Germany to Israeli specifications.  The revelation is extraordinary, since Israel will neither confirm or deny that it possesses nuclear weapons.  The news has yet to be carried by any American media source, and it certainly complicates the strong non-proliferation stand the US has taken with Iran.

The US has announced that it is shifting the bulk of its naval forces to the Pacific area.  Currently, the US fleet is split 50-50 between the Atlantic and the Pacific; Defense Secretary Panetta announced the by 2020 the split will be 60-40.   Needless to say, the Chinese are not pleased with the shift, but the growth of the Chinese military made such a response almost inevitable.  Thus are most escalation cycles born.

Former Egyptian leader, Hosni Mubarak, has been given a life sentence for crimes committed curing his tenure.  The sentence has displeased both his opponents and his supporters, leading to protests in Egypt.  No sentence would have pleased everyone–we will have to wait and see how deep the protests go.  Needless to say, the sentence will complicate the upcoming election.

Professor Walt has written another interesting essay, trying to answer the question for Americans: “Why do they hate us?”  I don’t think the question is a fair or true one, but Professor Walt raises an interesting perspective, one most would not expect from one of the world’s premier realists.

Andrew Bacevich is one of the most articulate leftist critics of American foreign policy, and he has just published an essay on the changing culture of the American military under President Obama.  His critique echoes the concerns of many others about the growing divide between the American military and American society occasioned by the increased professionalization with the military.  One may be quite happy that the draft is no longer in effect, but there is a price to pay when ordinary Americans have no essential civic connection to military service.

We’ve long suspected that the US and Israel were responsible for the cyberattacks against the Iranian nuclear program, and the New York Times has confirmed those suspicions.  The attacks were highly sophisticated and ushered in a new age of conflict.  While the attacks certainly delayed the Iranian program, it did not stop it.  Computer programming, however, is hardly the exclusive skill of any single nation.  We can expect similar attacks to escalate in the future.

The Globe and Mail (Canada) has run an excellent article on how Germany has fared throughout the eurozone crisis.  German unemployment is very low, and the interest rate of German bonds is extraordinarily low.  Germany has benefited from the crisis because the euro has declined in value which has boosted German exports.  One wonders, however, how much time will pass before the crisis reaches Germany.