We’ve talked a great deal about the nation-state, and the realist belief that it is the be-all and end-all of world politics. But the nation-state itself is relatively plastic. The New York Times ran a post today that has a series of interactive maps about nation-states that could fall apart and the new nation-states that might emerge. It is a fascinating series of maps and analysis that I recommend highly.
Diplomacy is usually the practice of saying bad things nicely (telling someone to go to hell, but make them look forward to the trip). The new President of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, however, believes in rather blunt talk. His critique of American foreign policy is unsparing and deserves to be taken seriously.
Iran has announced that female college students will be prohibited from majoring in 77 different majors, including accounting and engineering. The decision offends the liberal, Western view of non-discrimination, but is consistent with the policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It will be difficult to assess what the reaction within Iran will be to this decision.
There’s not much reporting on the war in Afghanistan. Since President Obama has vowed to pull out all US combat troops in 2014, many simply regard the war as “over.” Nothing could be further from the truth for the US and NATO soldiers in the country, and certainly not for the civilian population. The end game to wars are, however, very difficult and we have witnessed the emergence of a new phase in the war: attacks on the NATO troops by Afghan soldiers who are ostensibly working together. This breakdown suggests that the war should end more quickly, but it also suggests that the end will hardly be peaceful or stable.
Simon Johnson and Peter Boone, both quite prominent economists, have published an essay which I have seen cited three times today. In short, it rapidly has become the main stream explanation for what is going on in the global economy. It is a very intelligent essay, but we’ll see how long it stands up to scrutiny. It is particularly grim (most of the headlines associated with it contain the word “doomsday”). Some of the analysis is difficult to follow, so you should just skim the article for the central argument.
The situation in the West Bank seems to be deteriorating quite rapidly. The economic supporters of the Palestinian Authority are being less generous toward Fatah (the wing of the Palestinian movement that recognizes the right of Israel to exist) and more generous toward Hamas in the Gaza Strip (and which has yet to recognize the state of Israel). This dynamic is troubling since an economic breakdown in the West Bank would likely lead to violent protests.
For my colleagues in the UMass class, here’s the song I mentioned in the discussion about King Leopold and the Congo. This is Randy Newman’s interpretation of the Bush/Cheney years and the decline of the American empire.
We’ve been following the Diaoyou/Senkaku dispute, and Nicholas Kristof has published a careful analysis of the Chinese and Japanese claims to the islands (in fairness, I should point out something that Kristof fails to do: he is married to a woman from China and may be less than completely objective on the issue). As you can see from the essay, territorial claims rest heavily on historical evidence. As such, you should assess such claims knowing that not all the evidence may be being brought to bear–none of us has the ability to know what else might be in other archives.
The anti-US (and, to a lesser degree, anti-French) protests have spread to Pakistan, an important US ally. Relations between the US and Pakistan have been incredibly strained over the last few years, as President Obama has ordered many drone attacks within Pakistani territory in pursuit of fighters from Afghanistan. It is very hard to figure out how US-Pakistani relations can be repaired any time soon, but both sides desperately need each other for their foreign policy goals.
There has been a steady increase in violence along the Egyptian-Israeli border, and yesterday an Israeli soldier was killed in one of the attacks. Increased tensions between Egypt and Israel is the last thing the Middle East needs right now. It doesn’t appear as if the Egyptian government is in any way involved in the activities, but Israel will not accept any situation in which its southern border is unprotected. How Israel can fill that vacuum without violating Egyptian territory remains to be seen.
There was a nationwide strike in India, in protest over economic reforms that reflect more openness to the process of globalization. The governing party raised fuel prices and opened the door to global retailers like Wal-Mart, but many of the poor and small business owners believed that these reforms will only worsen their own economic position. The protests only complicate an already unstable political situation in India which has been rocked by charges of corruption and a slowing economic situation.
As the Chinese-Japanese stand-off deepens, we all begin to look for historical parallels that might offer some insight into how other stand-offs evolved. A creepy historical example is the French-German crisis in Agadir prior to World War I. Let’s hope that history’s lessons are not applicable to the current case.
To deepen everyone’s apprehension, David Ignatius of the Washington Post (Ignatius is unusually well-connected to the Department of Defense), wrote a sobering analysis of the most recent wargame simulation by the Pentagon of a confrontation with Iran. It doesn’t end well.
The island dispute between China and Japan is escalating into consumer boycotts against each other. This escalation is interesting since it suggests a grass-roots movement that is still unmeasurable. Nonetheless, it is also a dangerous escalation since both countries need each other economically.
According to Foreign Policy, the banner reads: “Even if China becomes nothing but tombstones, we must exterminate the Japanese; even if we have to destroy our own country, we must take back the Diaoyu Islands” (I cannot verify the translation–perhaps others can). The article further suggests that Audi is not at all pleased by the photograph.
Arctic sea ice reached the lowest level ever recorded by human beings. The level broke the most recent record low, recorded in 2007. Most climate models did not predict such a melt until 2030 at the earliest. Now some believe that the arctic sea ice will be completely gone in the summer within 4 years.
The world of world politics is filled with uncertainties. There are very few “facts” that are incontestable. For example, earlier this week, some Iranian officials claimed that members of the elite Revolutionary guard were in Syria as advisers to President Assad (it is not a secret that Iran supports the Syrian regime, but sending actual “troops” is a significant step since they may kill or be killed which ups the stakes involved). Now that claim is being denied. Which statement is true? Most likely the first statement, although the advisers are carefully disguised. Can another state act as if the Iranians have already intervened in the Syrian conflict? Not unless they have clear evidence. But should they ignore the Iranian interference simply because there’s no hard evidence?
The Economist has an incredible graphic on how social media mirrors the old imperial patterns. Some things never change, unfortunately.
US-China economic relations have become a hot issue in the US presidential campaign. Trade disputes between the US and China are not new, and both sides have used the World Trade Organization as an arbiter of trade disputes. Politicizing these disputes in the election campaign makes the ultimate resolution of the disputes more difficult.
The quiz on 19 September in the Mount Holyoke world politics class will be on these readings: Wilson, Milgram, and Carey. In addition the quiz will have questions on the blog posts from 13-17 September (inclusive) and the lectures.
If a link is incorrect or broken in any week, please do not worry. If students cannot access the correct news article, I will not ask any questions about the erroneous or non-existent article.
US Defense Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, has urged both China and Japan to tamp down the rhetoric over the disputed islands between them. The dispute is bringing out a strong nationalist impulse among the populations of both states, and such emotions are sometimes very difficult to control. The US clearly fears any military conflict in which it might have to choose sides.
The anti-US riots in recent days have highlighted an important difference in values that exist in the world. In some Islamic societies, blasphemy is a crime punishable by death; in liberal societies, such language is typically protected by freedom of speech. Such laws are not simply a difference of opinion–they reflect the relative weights given to the protection of society as opposed to the protection of the individual, and, as such, they are fundamentally different ways of viewing the world.
There were huge protests in Spain and Portugal over the weekend. The protests were aimed to show discontent with the austerity measures imposed on the two states by the European Union. It is not clear whether the governments of the two states can effectively respond to the protests–they need the outside money in order to prevent a debt default. It is a classic rock and a hard place scenario.
One of the most troubling aspects of the process of globalization is its correlation with increasing income inequality which seems to be a global trend, affecting all countries. The process has been well-documented in the United States because it has a fairly robust data collection process. Here is a post that uses the most recent US Census data on income shares in the United States.
One of the exercises that are critically important to develop analytical skills is to ask “what if” questions (or to use social science jargon, “counterfactuals”). Barry Lando asks a very simple question: why is the US and not China patrolling the Persian/Arabian Gulf? Asking such questions can lead to very interesting observations.
The BBC has published an article that tries to probe the underlying causes of the protests against the US in so many countries over the last four days. Even though the stated cause of the protests was the distribution of the anti-Muslim film trailer on Google, one should always be aware of the difference between catalysts for protests and the deeper reasons for the protests.
China is sending six warships to the area of islands disputed by both China and Japan (called the Diaoyu by China; the Senkakus by Japan). Japan had earlier tried to buy the islands from a private individual, and control of the territorial has been a steadily escalating issue for several months now. Sending warships is a signficiant act; we will have to see if the Japanese respond. The US is most likely trying to tamp down the tension as much as possible.
The Chinese have just announced that Xi Jinping, the president-in-waiting, will make an appearance soon. The report asserts that Mr. Xi is recovering from a bad back and has been undergoing physical therapy. All China watchers will be examining his every step if and when he appears.
Foreign Policy has a great post on the differences between Romney and Obama on the Iranian issue. There seems to be a great deal of confusion within Romney’s advisers. The “red line” between capacity to build a bomb and the possession of a bomb is a difficult one to draw effectively.
Here’s a map of the anti-US protests currently going on.
World Politics News 