There has been some movement among the outside powers to the Syrian civil war. The Syrian opposition has met with both Russia and Iran, and US Vice President Biden also met with the opposition. There are few tangible signs of change, but the simple fact that negotiations are taking place is an important step. Generally speaking, supporters of the “losing” side rarely open negotiations (and virtually everyone believes that President Assad is, in fact, losing) except to try to find some face-saving exit routes. We’ll keep an eye on developments. On another front, Turkey made a somewhat bizarre statement excoriating President Assad for not responding to the Israeli attack on Syrian soil. What makes the statement so strange is that Turkey has been in the forefront of opposition to Assad–why exhort an enemy to attack another enemy?
PBS has made a video on one of the newest developments in drone technology–the ability to process videos so precise that you can see people waving their arms and walking around from a camera three miles in the air. The technology is truly breathtaking and frightening: the oversight capability would probably amaze Big Brother (and it clearly signals the end of skinny-dipping).
For an insight into how a contemporary realist thinks about foreign policy, one could hardly do better than to read Stephen Walt. One of his blogs is particularly revealing and delightful.
The US is accusing Iran of aiding Syria’s government in the civil war. The charge is likely quite true, but the rhetoric follows on the heels of the Israeli attack on Syria indicating that the stakes in Syria are escalating for outside powers. The slow but sure insertion of outside interests in the civil war continues to match the escalating violence within Syria. Such a mix is almost invariably dangerous.
Secretary of State Clinton gave one of her final speeches to the Council on Foreign Relations yesterday and the transcript of the speech has been published. It is definitely worth reading. Secretary Clinton accomplished a great deal during her tenure–perhaps her single most important breakthrough was in opening up Burma–but much of what she accomplished was basic, necessary, and not very visible. In short, she did her job just as it should be done. She will be regarded as one of the nation’s great Secretaries of State.
The Israeli airstrike against the weapons convoy was actually on Syrian soil, not Lebanese soil as I indicated yesterday–such news is always difficult to corroborate quickly. But the Syrian and Iranian response has been swift, although it is difficult to see how either can retaliate. Since the weapons were most likely headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon, it is more likely that it will take the retaliatory action. Israel has already moved some of its anti-missile systems (the Iron Dome) into northern parts of Israel to prepare for any missile strikes from Hezbollah.
The steady deterioration of air quality in China has led to many Chinese people questioning whether the pursuit of economic growth should be limited in order to protect the environment. The debate is interesting, since it seems as if the Chinese are willing to ask a central question about their futures that many Western countries did not ask initially when confronted with similar environmental concerns. I suspect that the debate, while a healthy recognition of the tradeoffs in policy, will be resolved in favor of the environment unless concern over the environment becomes as politically potent as concern over the benefits of higher incomes.
We should be aware of growing protests in Europe as the economies of several countries continue to slow down under the austerity programs. Greece, in particular, is going to go through a spate of strikes which will disrupt its economy. Some of these protests are going to affect vital services in Greece and the reaction of the public to the strikes will give us a good idea of how much longer the Greek people are willing to endure the IMF and European Bank strictures.
The US is planning to build an air base for drones in northwest Africa–most likely Niger. The base is designed to aid efforts to contain the extremists who have threatened the government in Mali and to support the French intervention there. Such a base would require the stationing of US troops, so it signals the beginning of a US ground commitment in yet a new venue of world politics.
There is a long standing campaign against the Hazara minority in Pakistan. The campaign has received very little media attention but the persecution certainly qualifies as a genocide. The Hazara is a Shia Muslim sect in the overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim Pakistan. The lack of attention by the rest of the world is largely explained by the geopolitical concerns about Pakistan itself which make the domestic issue seem less important.
There are reports of a worrisome escalation of violence in the Syrian civil war. The Israelis have apparently attacked a convoy of weapons moving from Syria into Lebanon. The Israelis have publicly worried about the transfer of chemical and other advanced technology weapons from Syria into the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and have apparently decided that a strike on Lebanese territory would be less explosive than an attack on Syrian soil. We’ll watch to see what the Iranian response to this attack might be.
Hypocrisy is a well-known phenomenon in world politics, but every now and then, one is left breathless by the mendacity of some states. Russia has just made a statement that it has “never” supported the Syrian President Assad. Apparently the fact that Syria buys about 10% of Russian arms sales and that the Russian fleet regularly docks at a Syrian port does not qualify as support. One wonders what Russian opposition to a regime would look like.
The London-based Arabic daily, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, conducted an interview with Muhammad Al-Zawahiri, brother of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri on the situation in Egypt. If you would like a good insight into a non-liberal view of politics in Egypt, I would highly recommend that you read the interview.
There is a stealth argument emerging in discussions about the global economy: the end of the cheap labor era and the consequences for future economic growth. No one has really developed the idea in any detail, but the argument is that as labor costs rise in India and China, producers will turn to robots and artificial intelligence instead of using human beings for labor. It is a very difficult argument to test empirically, but more and more hints are being dropped as jobless rates in the world remain stubbornly high.
The US Treasury Department has approved large compensation packages for executives of companies that were bailed out by the US Government in 2008. The issue is a lingering one from the Great Global Recession of 2008-09, and one that affects Europe, Japan, China, and the US. The compensation packages reflect the growing income inequality that is becoming an intrinsic part of the global economy.
The French are realizing limited successes against the Malian rebel forces, but the rebels are destroying many valuable manuscripts that the rebels regard as un-Islamic. These manuscripts are hand written records of the history of North Africa and are simply priceless. But they refer to a history before Islam spread to the region and are therefore considered dangerous by the rebels.
Iran has launched a missile carrying a monkey into space, signaling its capability to develop a ballistic missile capability. Like the earlier North Korean satellite launch, the test is both scientific and military. Iran’s adversaries are clearly worried about the growing military power of Iran, and the launch itself could be a violation of an earlier UN Security Council Resolution barring such tests. Its symbolism aside, the test is also a clear testament to Iran’s scientific and technological capabilities.
The protests in Egypt have escalated, more dramatically after death sentences were handed down against individuals who had participated in a soccer riot last year. The protesters don’t have a single platform or set of demands, but the various groups are all frustrated by the slow pace of liberalization and the fear that President Morsi is too sympathetic to those in Egypt who would prefer a more theocratic and less secular democracy. The government has responded harshly to these protests, so it is not likely that they will die down soon.
The Obama Administration may be moving in a very different foreign policy direction over the next four years. his two appointees, Sen. Kerry for the State Department and Sen. Hagel for the Defense Department, are both Vietnam veterans who have developed deep suspicions over the efficacy of military force. This change may signal a more cautious use of force and a much more limited American involvement in foreign affairs. We’ll see–the first term was filled with people who had more ambitious foreign policy objectives.
The CEO of Shell Oil has written an interesting essay on the likely stresses on natural resources in the next 30 years. The projections are sobering, but Peter Voser’s possible solutions are counterintuitive from what one would expect from the CEO of a large corporation.
The Chinese and Japanese are holding meetings in an effort to reach some sort of agreement on the status of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The dispute flared up last year after the Japanese purchased the islands from private Japanese hands and there has increasing military activity by both sides in the region. The initial reports about the meetings do not suggest that much progress is being made, but the simple fact that there are talks going on is in itself a good sign.
The civil war in Syria seems to be reaching a critical point in its 22-month history. The Syrian army has reorganized, emphasizing more loyal troops from the Alawite sect, and is gathering to make a sustained push against the rebels near the town of Daraya. If successful the Syrian army would prevent the rebels from establishing a contiguous corridor of rebel controlled territory and deal the rebels a serious psychological blow. Since there are few journalists in the country right now, we’ll have to watch carefully for how the battle unfolds.
There have been large protests in Egypt on the second anniversary of the initial uprising that led to the overthrow of the Mubarak dictatorship. The protesters believe that progress toward full democratization of the political system has been too slow and ineffective. Several people have died in the protests and it isn’t clear how long-lived the protests will be.
North Korea has issued some of the most bellicose rhetoric against the US that we’ve heard in years, asserting that its nuclear weapons and missile tests are targeted against the US. The rhetoric followed the issuance of new sanctions against the North Korean weapons program. It’s difficult to assess how serious the threats are, but they were convincing enough to provoke the Chinese to condemn the North Korean rhetoric.
The economic situation in several European states is dire, and perhaps the country suffering the most from the economic recession is Spain. It is difficult to imagine the economic hardships the Spanish people are enduring, but The Atlantic has a short piece that gives some perspective on how desperate the situation is. Some of the Spanish statistics are significantly worse than those of the Great Depression.
The French intervention in Mali seems to have stemmed the immediate threat of the extremists, but such interventions are always difficult over time. The French have had some experience with such interventions in the past (Algeria, 1954; Vietnam, 1954), and none of those cases worked out well for the French. There may be some special circumstances in Mali that may favor the French intervention, but it’s hard to see a success if the intervention lasts a long time.
Things are often not what they appear to be in world politics. Over the past few days I have been posting brief snippets of information about the French intervention in Mali and the spillover of that operation into Algeria. I never suspected that there was any US involvement in Mali. A financial blog, however, named Zero Hedge, has unearthed some information which raises some questions about US operations in Mali. The blog references articles in Bloomberg and The Washington Post, both highly reputable news organizations. The inferences from that information, however, is all speculation. I will try to follow this trail and see if I can find any corroborating sources. In the meantime, we should keep a closer eye on Mali.
Preliminary results from the Israeli election suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu will win a third term. But the actual likely coalitions in the Parliament are cloudy. Some early reports suggest that Netanyahu’s party will actually lose a considerable number of seats in the Knesset to both more centrist and more rightist parties. We will have more solid information over the next few days, but it seems as if Israel’s foreign policy could become more hawkish over the next few months.
The South China Sea is potentially a huge oil reserve, but there are six countries that claim parts of the sea as part of their national territory. The contested claims have led to several naval engagements over the last few years, and the Philippines has decided to bring China to court. In this case, the court is a tribunal set up under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It is not clear that China will allow itself to be judged by the tribunal–its response to the case will be interesting to analyze.
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