Unrest continues in Bulgaria, as citizens take to the streets to protest high prices and corruption. These protests have been going on for some time and they seem to be getting larger. The government has already fallen, so there is not immediate objective for the protesters. The unrest most likely signals an intolerable level of frustration.
South Korea inaugurated its new President, Park Geun-hye. Ms. Park is the daughter of a former leader of Korea (one remembered for his authoritarian rule), and generally speaking represents a fairly conservative point of view. Her most immediate problem (aside from the issue of North Korea’s objectives) is to figure out how to revive the South Korean economy. Her task is difficult as the winds from China and Japan tend to have a strong effect on South Korea’s economy.
The Palestinian Authority claims that Arafat Jaradat was killed by Israeli prison officials. An Israeli autopsy held that Jaradat died from cardiac arrest and showed no signs of trauma. The Palestinian autopsy, however, held that Jaradat had been tortured to death. How the autopsies could have come to such radically different conclusions is not explained. The anger within the Palestinian community is quite high, and one should expect the string of protests to continue and amplify.
A Palestinian prisoner has died while under Israeli custody. The prisoner, Arafat Jaradat, was not one of the Palestinians engaged in a hunger strike against Israeli detention, but his death nonetheless led to serious charges by the Palestinian Authority. Let’s hope that the media will pursue the story so that we can have a more solid understanding of what happened. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to find information about Israeli prisoners after they are detained.
The main opposition group in Syria, the National Coalition, has pulled out of diplomatic talks on the continuing violence in Syria. The pullout is a serious blow to diplomatic efforts to end the violence, but it represents a decision by the Coalition that the continued support by Russia of President Assad compromises the integrity of the process. The Russians have not responded to the decision, and we do not now know what the next steps might be. In the meantime, many innocents continue to die in Syria.
There were large protests in Spain against the austerity programs that have pushed the country into a deep depression. Unfortunately, the protests don’t address the central question of how to stimulate the Spanish economy, but they serve as a clear message to the IMF and the European Union that the austerity programs lack popular support. In the meantime, the world awaits the results of the Italian election tomorrow.
Greece has been enduring several plagues: the economic depression, wildfires, violent protests, and, now, floods. In 5 hours nearly 100mm of rain fell near Athens (the average for the month is 50mm). It is hard to imagine that the Greek people are not near a breaking point.
Malik Ishaq, the leader of the anti-Shia group in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), has been detained by Pakistani police. The LeJ claimed responsibility for the horrific attack on Shia Pakistanis in Quetta last week. We do not know if Ishaq was involved in the attack, but it is encouraging that the police have taken action. Sectarian violence is threatening to rip Pakistan apart.
Protests against Israeli treatment of Palestinian prisoners have been steadily increasing over the last few days. Some of the prisoners have been engaged in a hunger strike, and the protests are aimed at improving the conditions for those prisoners. The UN and the European Union have lodged protests against the treatment, but the real danger is that some of the prisoners might die. If that were to happen, we could expect the protests to become larger and more violent.
A Palestinian film, “5 Broken Cameras”, is being considered for an Oscar in the Documentary category. The film documents the ongoing protest at a town called Bil’in where the Israelis are building a security barrier that essentially cuts the town off from its agricultural land. The protest is distinguished by its powerful commitment to non-violent action, but the protest has received little international attention. The US public radio station, NPR, did a piece on the film that is balanced and insightful.
There has been a terrible bombing in the Indian city of Hyderabad. We don’t yet have many details about the explosion, but it comes on the heels of the huge work stoppage in India. The economic and political situation in the world’s largest democracy seems to be deteriorating quickly.
There has been a vigorous debate over the use of drones in foreign policy, but we should also be aware of the use of drones domestically. Right now there are few rules governing the use of drones for surveillance (the Federal Aviation Agency is formulating rules), and the potential use of drones for warrantless searches is probably something that everyone should think about.
The Bulgarian Prime Minster, Boyko Borissov, resigned today, amid charges of corruption, rising prices, and rising unemployment. The turmoil seems to be associated with the austerity programs imposed by the IMF and the European Union. Meanwhile, strikes spread in Greece for the same reasons.
An estimated 100 million workers in India went on strike, the beginning of a two day strike against rising prices. The Indian economy is slowing at a steady pace along with many other economies in the world. But prices for basic commodities continue to rise in spite of the slowdown.
For the first time in Saudi Arabian history, 30 women have been named to the 150-person Shura governing council. King Abdullah appointed the women to the council as part of a very gradual move to grant women more rights in the Kingdom. Most likely, women will have the right to vote in the next election. The move, while symbolically important, does not really change the nature of authority in Saudi Arabia which remains fully under the control of the King.
An important election will be held this weekend in Italy. The center-left and center-right parties seem to be getting the plurality of support, which leaves the center, led by the current Prime minister, Mario Monti, in the role of kingmaker. It is a tight contest, however, and one of the outcomes, the return of Silvio Berlusconi on the center-right, would have highly problematic consequences for the willingness of Italy to continue the austerity programs which have somewhat calmed the eurozone as of late. There could be rough seas ahead for Europe.
One of the central tenets of neoclassical economics is that free trade benefits everyone because of the greater efficiency brought about by comparative advantage. A new study, however, suggests that this proposition may not always be true, and that, in particular, it is definitely not true in the case of US-China trade. We will have to see how well this study stands up to close scrutiny.
One of the mysteries of the recovery from the Great Recession is the slowness of job recovery: why aren’t jobs being created at a rate consistent with previous recoveries? One partial answer is that the jobs are being taken by robots, and not human beings. That means that things will still be produced, but that people may not have the incomes to buy them. Which means that the recovery will be interminable. Not a happy conclusion.
Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa has won his third term. Correa is a populist, lefty leader who has made a point of trying to appeal to the indigenous populations of Ecuador. His admirers point to dramatic drops in the poverty rate during his tenure, while his critics point to a stifling of basic freedoms. Correa has close ties to Chavez in Venezuela and Castro in Cuba, and has tried to organize opposition to US influence in Latin America.
Pakistan has handed control of its strategic port at Gwadar to China, raising concerns in India about Chinese naval encirclement. The port has been largely built by the Chinese, but getting control is a big step forward for Chinese interests. The Chinese have been following a “strong of pearls” policy, building ports all along the Indian Ocean in order to safeguard the sea routes for Chinese trade. but India cannot help but view the policy as a strategic concern.
The global economic slowdown has finally had a salutary effect: sales of arms have dropped by 5 percent since last year. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) does an annual study of arms sales, and the end of the war in Iraq and the drawdown in Afghanistan were largely responsible for the decline. But it does also appear as if there is less interest in weapons trades because of the economic situation.
Free speech is a wonderful thing. For example, one can post a You Tube video that excoriates one of the largest corporations in the world. You can judge for yourself whether the charges are accurate. ExxonMobil received a cease-and-desist order to prevent this advertisement from being broadcast during the State of the Union Address.
One of the most persecuted groups in the world are the Hazara Shia in Pakistan. Over the last few months the program of extermination has accelerated and little has been done to protect them. It would be very difficult to intervene in Pakistan to carry out some form of humanitarian intervention, so there is little outsiders can do other than to bring attention to this tragedy.
Attitudes toward immigrants in the world have turned decidedly negative over the last ten years. There was a large protest in Singapore against new government policies. What makes the protest so remarkable is that Singapore very rarely has political protests of any kind.
There is an official summary of the remarks made by Xi Jinping to a recent meeting of Communist Party leaders which reveals a great deal of anxiety within the ruling circles of China. The remarks have not been published by the Chinese press, but it seems as if the summary is being passed around as a warning about the pace of change in China. Ominously, Mr. Xi raised the analogy of the Soviet Union as a lesson to be heeded when change outpaces ideology.
To add to China’s problems, The Guardian is reporting that North Korea has told China that it intends to test another nuclear bomb and another long-range missile later this year. So China has to deal with the backlash from other countries from these provocations, the loss of face because it lacks leverage over its ally, and the likely military buildup of its neighbors in response to the new threats posed by North Korea’s capabilities. This example is a classic case of the security dilemma gone wild.
Matt Taibbi is a reporter for Rolling Stone and one of the most dogged investigator of the behavior of big banks in the global economy. In his most recent installment he looks at how the British bank, HSBC, avoided prosecution for many years even though it was issued “cease and desist” by the US government over its role in money laundering to terrorist groups and drug cartels. It is a sordid story, and buttresses the diea that the biggest banks are clearly immune from the regulation that smaller entities and individuals expect and take for granted.
It is difficult to anticipate the consequences of climate change, and even more difficult to calculate the costs of trying to adapt to possible changes. The General Accountability Office has tried to estimate the costs to the US federal government of necessary adaptations to foreseeable changes. Needless to say, the costs could be considerable. It would seem far cheaper to try to avoid the changes than to adapt to them.
There is quite a controversy in Europe over the use of horsemeat in foods that are labeled “beef.” Ordinarily, such a story would not be something I would post, but it reflects a growing concern in the global economy over “hidden” inflation. We typically worry about price increases as the best index of inflation. But lowering the quality of goods and services is another way that firms can maintain profitability while charging the same price for those goods and services. Given that price increases are difficult to impose in a very slow economy, we can expect that other firms will also try to lower quality secretly.
The Japanese Defense Minister has suggested that the country should develop a pre-emptive strike capability. Such a capability would certainly arouse strong suspicions in East Asia over Japanese intentions. Admittedly, the Japanese are facing new military capabilities from both China and North Korea, and some changes to Japanese military posture were inevitable. A different rhetoric, however, might have been called for.
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