Archive for the ‘World Politics’ Category
The 24/7 TV news cycle is infatuated with either beheadings or Ebola. The American response to these horrific situations is unsettling. There were warning signs to both, and if the US had paid attention earlier to the circumstances which spawned these terrible events, we would be far less concerned. The Ebola crisis has been going on for months (my first post on the outbreak in West Africa was on 29 March 2014). If the US had sent aid at that time, the situation would have been far less dire. The mortality rate for untreated Ebola is about 90%; the mortality rate for Ebola victims who are given just care and antibiotics is 50% (seemingly the same rate for the 4 people who have received the new vaccine, ZMapp). Why US policy does not kick in until American citizens are directly threatened is beyond my understanding. And why American citizens get so freaked out by highly improbable scenarios defies logic.
About 35,000 walruses are crowded onto a small beach in Alaska as the animals have been forced to forage and rest on land as their typical environment of sea ice has receded. Scientists believe that global warming is responsible for the change in the habitat, a change that has also forced changes in the behavior of polar bears. The Arctic has experienced the most significant temperature changes on the planet, and it is a particularly fragile environment.
Reports of brutality have emerged from the Syrian city of Kobani, as Islamic State fighters have tightened their siege of the city. The siege has been going on for about 20 days, and American air strikes have only been of limited value as the Kurdish forces protecting the city are short of ammunition and guns. Turkey has authorized the use of its military to protect Turkish interests in Syria, but Turkey has thus far been unwilling to aid the Kurds holding off the attack on the city. If the city falls, about 200,000 civilians will be at risk.
Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, Leung Chun-ying, refused to step down from his post in a signal that the Chinese Central government is not willing to make concessions to the protesters. The hardline has divided the protesters, as some wish to compromise while others seem to have dug in their heels. The number of protesters is likely to dwindle as a consequence, but those who remain will probably refuse to make any compromises at all. The likely outcome is that the central government will take stronger action against the smaller numbers, and we should hope that violence can be avoided in the confrontation.
The new center-left government of Sweden has announced that it is going to recognize Palestine as a state. It will be the first “west” European state to do so–the other European states that recognize Palestine (Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary) did so while aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The move represents a significant break from previous European policies which was to follow generally the lead of the United States in not recognizing Palestine. Given Sweden’s reputation within Europe, the move will inspire a broader conversation within the European Union as a whole.
The Islamic State has just beheaded another hostage and is also fiercely attacking the Syrian city of Kobani which is right along the Turkish border. The two actions clearly suggest that the IS is deliberately goading both Turkey and the West into getting involved in a ground war in Syria and Iraq. The strategy is a high-risk one, but the IS obviously believes that it could trap the West in a quagmire that would definitely boost its standing among those who might be leaning toward supporting the Caliphate. It remains to be seen whether Turkey and the West have the political ability to avoid walking into the trap.
The People’s Daily, the official media organ of the Chinese Communist Party has published an editorial that states its position on the protests in Hong Kong. As far as I can tell, this is the first official pronouncement that addresses the protests in terms that suggest their significance. The editorial states clearly the position of the Beijing government:
“The central government must firmly support the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in taking resolute action against radical activities, including drawing the red line of Hong Kong’s rule of law. It must be made clear that there is no uncertainty over political reform in Hong Kong.”
At this point, it seems as if the central government is going to wait out the protesters, hoping that the people of Hong Kong will ultimately turn on the protesters as their activities disrupt the daily lives of many. The newspaper has also published the Beijing government’s official position on the issue of elections in Hong Kong. (I will not ask any questions on the official document on the quiz).
The Economist has published a fascinating essay on the changing relationship between work and wealth. Essentially, the essay argues that the digital revolution has created opportunities to create great wealth but with little demand for labor. The troubling aspect of this transformation is that with fewer workers, there is the danger that a highly productive economy can develop without creating a robust consumer class to purchase the goods produced. The key to market capitalism is the key relationship between workers and consumers. Without sufficient consumers, mass markets likely cannot exist.
The Pew Research Center has a News IQ test which yielded very depressing results. It is a short, 12-question quiz that was given to 1,002 randomly selected adults. Apparently, the US population is about as well-informed as a demented gopher. Test your own knowledge base.
My son, Zachary, posted this video on Facebook, and it definitely deserves close attention. Reza Aslan, a professor at the University of California, Riverside, completely decimates the simple-minded views of Islam typically propagated on US media outlets.
http://www.cnn.com/video/api/embed.html#/video/bestoftv/2014/09/30/cnn-tonight-reza-aslan-bill-maher.cnn
The Smithsonian has a fascinating series on what is being called the Age of the Anthropocene. It is a phrase that places the age of human activity alongside other geologic ages, assuming that human activity has changed the global environment as much as any other geologic period. I won’t be asking questions on the quiz about the series, but I recommend it to everyone. It is a great way to change one’s perspective on how humans are affecting the global environment.
Save the Children, a highly reputable non-governmental organization, has estimated that there are 5 new Ebola cases every hour in Sierra Leone. That rate of infection is truly catastrophic given the limited health infrastructure of the country. The developed world is putting all its hopes in a potential vaccine and freaking out about the disease spreading into rich countries. Meanwhile, thousands of innocents are dying while the rich countries refuse to provide basic and inexpensive assistance that could make a huge difference.
About 10% of the people leaving North America and Europe to join the Islamic State are women and girls. There are a variety of motives for the exodus, ranging from a powerful commitment to the cause of jihad to a romantic sense of waging war that unfortunately is always a phenomenon at the beginning of a struggle. The consequences of the decision appear to be mixed. We do not have solid information about life under the Islamic State, but some reports claim that women are poorly treated.
The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth largest body of water; it is now almost completely dried up. NASA has released time-lapse satellite photos of the Aral Sea that show its slow demise. The rivers that once fed the Aral Sea were diverted by the then-Soviet Union for agricultural irrigation. The result of the change was an unmitigated disaster, and one that most likely can never be reversed.
The London Zoological Society has tried for several years to conduct a valid census of wildlife on the planet, and its most recent effort has attracted a great deal of attention. One should acknowledge at the beginning that the effort can only be considered a very rough approximation of reality–the methodological problems with such a census are formidable. Within this range of error, however, some of the results are truly troubling. The report indicates that “populations of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish have declined by an average of 52%”….and that “[p]opulations of freshwater species have suffered an even worse fall of 76%.” All of these declines are attributable to human activity.
One of the more troubling aspects of the US intervention against the Islamic State is that it is, in many respects, more closely aligned with American allies than it is with American enemies. It is a Sunni-based organization, a sympathy shared with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Egypt. American enemies, such as Iran, are Shia-based. In fighting the Islamic State, US interests coincide with Iran and contradict the interests of Saudi Arabia. Edward Luce of the Financial Times writes about this inconsistency and reminds us of an important fact: there have been no Shia-based terror attacks against the US. All terror attacks have been made by groups implicitly supported by Saudi Arabia.
Income inequality is the virtually universal consequence of the process of globalization: capital tends to be rewarded more richly than labor in an economic system that benefits from significantly reduced costs of production. One of the most troubling aspects of income inequality is that most people are not fully aware of its extent. Most of us have no idea what the richest among us really make–we usually compare ourselves to the people we see around us. But the truly rich are almost beyond comprehension. Indeed, income inequality in the US is currently worse than what existed during the Roman Empire (including the slaves). Most troubling, income inequality in the US is as skewed as it was just before the Great Depression.
The protests in Hong Kong have persisted and grown in size. The issue is whether the citizens of Hong Kong will preserve the right to nominate their own elected officials. In 1984, Great Britain signed an agreement with China to restore Chinese control over Hong Kong in 1997, and that for a period fifty years Hong Kong would be treated as a Special Administrative Region. China agreed that Hong Kong would be guaranteed the civil rights available to all Chinese citizens while under British rule until 2047. The Central government in Beijing wishes to nominate its own candidates to run Hong Kong, and many protesters believe that the move violates the “one country, two systems” policy of the 1984 agreement. The current protests are regarded as “illegal” by the Beijing government, and there is little question that the protests are a serious challenge to the Beijing government. The official Chinese government website (www.gov.cn) does not mention the protests, but one can find its report on the protests at http://www.china.org.cn/china/2014-09/29/content_33643206.htm.
Authorities in Hong Kong used tear gas and pepper spray to disperse protesters who have besieged government offices for three days. The protesters are demanding the right to nominate people to stand for elections, rather than rely upon lists of candidates provided by the government in Beijing. The activities of “Occupy Central”, a movement comprised of primarily college students, have challenged the Chinese government. The People’s Daily, the official media organ of the Chinese Communist Party, reports its own perspective on the protests.
One of the more intriguing aspects of the US-led war against the Islamic State, is the persistent belief among many that the organization itself is a creation of the US. Many in the region believe this assertion to be true, and RT, a Russian media outlet, has published an op-ed piece that develops the argument. The belief is founded upon the fact that the US did, in fact, lead Sunni Muslims in Iraq to engage in what was termed “The Awakening” in 2007, a movement that was accompanied by a “surge” in US troop strength in Iraq. The Awakening was an effort by the US to counter the Shia-led militias that were attacking US troops at the time. There is little evidence, however, that indicates that the US effort led to the growth of ISIL in Syria because of the Syrian civil war which then subsequently moved to Iraq. Nor is there any evidence that the US was even in contact with the Syrian Sunnis at any time. The belief, however, is solidly entrenched in the Middle East.
Pharag Kanna has written an excellent essay on the process of “devolution”–the tendency in contemporary world affairs for smaller nations to declare their independence from states. We do not know how far this dynamic can go: the results of the referendum in Scotland suggests that it is not inexorable. Yet it is apparent in other states, and seems to be consistent with the process of technological change which seems to favor smaller units. The essay is definitely worth reading.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a speech to the United Nations that was sharply critical of US foreign policy. His language was direct:
“Washington has openly declared its right to unilateral use of force anywhere to uphold its own interests ……Military interference has become a norm – even despite the dismal outcome of all power operations that the U.S. has carried out over the recent years.”
Lavrov cited the US interventions in Kosovo in 1999, Iraq in 2003, the war in Afghanistan, and the 2011 bombing of Libya. He was also critical of US actions against the Islamic State.
After a long period of negotiations, Afghanistan inaugurated Ashraf Ghani as its next President and Abdullah Abdullah as chief executive officer. The two men replace Hamid Karzai who had been President of the country since 2004. The election was highly contested and for a period of time it did not appear as if the succession would be smooth or legitimate. However, the US Secretary of State John Kerry worked diligently to achieve a resolution. The arrangement is an ad hoc one and likely quite fragile. The US is going to have to work very hard to assure the success of the new government.
Dominique Moisi is a Professor at the L’Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po). He has written an essay using balance of power theory to explain contemporary world politics. The essay is insightful and the parallels are intriguing. But I do not think that the political dynamics of 1815 are comparable to 2014, although some states (like Russia) are clearly playing by the old rules.
One reliable metric for instability in world politics is the number of refugees seeking asylum in safe countries. According to the UN High Commissioner on Refugees, the number of asylum-seekers for 2014 may be among the highest ever recorded. Two-thirds of the requests for asylum were made to five countries: Germany, the United States, France, Sweden and Turkey. The largest number of requests came from people from Syria, followed by Iraq, Afghanistan, and Eritrea. Conflict is clearly the trigger for flight, and it does not seem as if there is any likelihood of a slowdown in refugees any time soon.
The human rights group American Justice Center has filed a suit against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his alleged complicity in widespread violence against Muslims in the Indian state of Gujarat in 2002. Modi was the leader of the state at that time, and the suit was filed on behalf of two unnamed persons who presumably suffered during the riots. The suit was filed as Modi began his first official visit to the US as Indian Prime Minister. It is not likely that the suit will interfere with any of his official duties, but the suit is an example of how human rights law has achieved extra-territoriality in recent years.
Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas delivered a very hard-hitting speech to the United Nations today. In it, he demanded that the United Nations set a deadline for setting up a Palestinian state:
“ There is no meaning or value in negotiations for which the agreed objective is not ending the Israeli occupation and achieving the independence of the state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital on the entire Palestinian territory occupied in the 1967 war.
“And, there is no value in negotiations which are not linked to a firm timetable for the implementation of this goal.”
Abbas thus rejected further negotiations. But he went further and threatened to bring Israel to the International Criminal Court for what he termed genocide in the recent Gaza War:
“We will not forget and we will not forgive, and we will not allow war criminals to escape punishment.”
There will be furious negotiations within the UN as these matters proceed.
US President Obama gave a very forceful speech on terrorism to the United Nations. The main thrust of the speech was to highlight the common need of all states to reaffirm their commitment to a stable world order. His was the rhetoric of a hegemonic leader who wished to emphasize the mutual benefits of a common system:
“We can renew the international system that has enabled so much progress, or we can allow ourselves to be pulled back by an undertow of instability. We can reaffirm our collective responsibility to confront global problems, or be swamped by more and more outbreaks of instability. “
He directly criticized Russia for violating one of the cardinal norms of the world system: the inviolability of national borders.
“Recently, Russia’s actions in Ukraine challenge this post-war order….This is a vision of the world in which might makes right — a world in which one nation’s borders can be redrawn by another, and civilized people are not allowed to recover the remains of their loved ones because of the truth that might be revealed.”
Obama also endorsed the idea of the free movement of goods, services, and ideas, but he used the threat of the Ebola virus to demonstrate why all nations should support freedom of movement–a curious, but effective, way of highlighting the full implications of that commitment:
“As we speak, America is deploying our doctors and scientists — supported by our military — to help contain the outbreak of Ebola and pursue new treatments. But we need a broader effort to stop a disease that could kill hundreds of thousands, inflict horrific suffering, destabilize economies, and move rapidly across borders. It’s easy to see this as a distant problem — until it is not.”
Finally, Obama explicitly endorsed one of the principal tenets of liberalism by endorsing a clear separation of church and state when talking about the problem of terrorism:
“So we reject any suggestion of a clash of civilizations. Belief in permanent religious war is the misguided refuge of extremists who cannot build or create anything, and therefore peddle only fanaticism and hate. And it is no exaggeration to say that humanity’s future depends on us uniting against those who would divide us along the fault lines of tribe or sect, race or religion.”
The speech was a clear representation of the values of the American conception of an appropriate world order.
There is speculation that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Eun, may be suffering a serious health problem. He has not appeared publicly for about three weeks, and in his previous appearances, he appeared to limp and to have gained a considerable amount of weight. Given that he wields considerable power within North Korea, any possibility that he cannot effectively discharge his responsibilities raises the issue of power struggles within the elite to fill that vacuum. Needless to say, potential instability in North Korea is a strategic threat to all its neighbors.
Maj. Mariam al-Mansouri is pilot in the air force of the United Arab Emirates and has participated in the bombing of the Islamic State sites in Syria. She is the first female fighter pilot in the UAE, and, as far as I can tell, the only woman who is participating in the bombing missions.
World Politics News 