World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Researchers from Yale University and Utah State University have conducted a massive poll of American opinions on climate change in every Congressional District.  Their findings are that whether one worries about climate change depends a great deal on where one is located.  Residents of Washington, DC register the highest level of concern about climate change, while residents of West Virginia are the least concerned group of Americans.  The results of the poll are quite interesting, but it seems clear that a majority of Americans believe that global warming is occurring and that something should be done about it.  The results suggest that some members of Congress who do not believe that climate change is an issue are not in touch with many of their constituents.

Kenyan warplanes attacked several al Shabab camps in Somalia.  The attacks were in response to the extremist attacks on Garissa University.   It is not likely that air bombardment would have much effect on the militant group, but the pressure on Kenyan President Kenyatta to retaliate was intense.  The countries in the region of East Africa, however, have to figure out a more effective and coordinated response to the threat posed by al Shabab.  Moreover,  there countries lack the means to deliver a sustained response, and desperately need the help of the most developed countries in the world.  The extremist groups–al Shabab, al Qaeda, and the Islamic States–are not coordinating their activities, but they have to be dealt with as if they were a highly coordinated group.

Greece has finally given an estimate of how much money Germany owes the Greeks for the damages inflicted by the German occupation of the country in World War II.  The final amount comes to $305.17 billion.  There is zero likelihood that Germany would even consider the issue reparations (it made payments in the past and considers the matter closed).  But the Greeks are pursuing the issue as a way to undermine the moral legitimacy of German demands for full repayment of Greek sovereign debt.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu came out strongly against the Iran nuclear deal.  In a speech, he raised the issue to a global one, arguing that a nuclear armed Iran represents a threat to the whole world.  By coming out against the agreement, Netanyahu is openly opposing the Obama Administration.  The alternative to the deal is for additional sanctions to be placed on Iran in hopes of getting a better deal.  By a “better deal” he presumably means a deal in which Iran would destroy all its nuclear facilities and programs.   It is hard to imagine that such an outcome is remotely possible.

Hundreds of Palestinian refugees have fled from the Yarmouk refugee camp just south of Damascus, Syria.   They have been caught in the cross-fire between the government forces of President Assad and the forces of the Islamic State.   There are reports of beheadings and executions as there is no love lost between the Islamic State and the Palestinian refugees.  Most of the camp’s residents had already fled, and those who remained were quite literally those who had no alternative place to go.  The political status of a Palestinian refugee is among the lowest imaginable in the world today.

On 9 April the Greek government must repay the IMF  a €450 million loan.  There are serious questions whether the government has the money, although it claims that it does.  The Greeks are desperately trying to renegotiate the terms of the repayment, and the IMF is more open to such changes than is the EU or the European Central Bank.  But much remains in doubt, and the world will be watching what happens as the date approaches.

The Guardian has gallery of photographs of how human beings affect the environment.  Some have started to call the current era of the Earth the Anthropocene Era to signify the decisive impact of human activity on the planet as a living organism.  The photographs are truly sobering.

The Brahmaputra River has three names. In Tibet, it is known as the Yarlung Tsangpo; in Arunachal Pradesh, it is known as the Siang River; in Assam, India, it is known as the Brahmaputra; In Bangladesh, it is called the Jamuna where it joins the Ganges (known as the Padma in Bangladesh) and Meghna Rivers until it flows in the Bay of Bengal.  China has plans to dam the Brahmaputra in Tibet, and those plans have unnerved the downstream countries who fear the loss of water and the potential for increased silt.  Fresh water disputes will become more common as the resource becomes more constrained due to pollution and increased demand.  But coordinating water usage of such large rivers is extremely complicated and disputatious.

Iraqi troops looted many areas of Tikrit after they chased the Islamic State militants from the city.  The looting was interpreted by the residents as done primarily by Shi’ite forces which complicates the Iraqi government’s desire to transcend the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide which weakens the government.  The looting only solidifies the feeling among the Sunni residents of Iraq that the only alternative to the Iraqi government is the Islamic State.

The extremist group, al-Shabab, launched an attack on Garissa University in northeastern Kenya, and killed at least 147 people.  The group is based in Somalia and has been around since the 1990s.  The tension between Kenya and al-Shabab revolves around Kenyan efforts to dislodge the groups from East Africa.  In September 2013 the group attacked civilians at a shopping mall in Nairobi, and the US has tried drone attacks and special operations to degrade the group.  Obviously, US and Kenyan efforts have not been successful.

Peter Beinart is a sophisticated analyst of Middle East politics and he has thought deeply about the significance of the Iranian nuclear deal.  Both the US and Iran were very specific about compartmentalizing the nuclear agreement–for both sides the agreement meant nothing about any other aspect of their relationship.  Both sides wanted to remain enemies in order to defuse the anger of their own hardliners.  Nonetheless, Beinart argues that the recognition of mutual shared interests means something for the future of US-Iran relations.

The Pew Research Institute has released a new report on the future of world religions. The report indicates that there will be major changes in the distribution of various world religions by 2050 due to demographic changes. Demography, however, is not necessarily destiny.  What we do not know is the interpretations of the major world religions by 2050:  there are wide variations in degrees of adherence that cannot be anticipated.

The P5+1 and Iran announced an interim agreement today after marathon sessions which went beyond the agreed upon deadline of 31 March.  If one wishes to see the terms of the agreement, click here (I will not ask any questions on the quiz about these specifics).   I will have to go over the agreement very carefully before I make an assessment of its effectiveness.  But the initial read suggests that Iran made some very significant concessions on its capabilities in return for a swift removal of the sanctions–itself a major concession of the P5+1.  It also seems as if the International Atomic Energy Agency will have the ability to monitor the agreement rather intrusively.   But my initial reactions are not shared by the Washington Post or by Israel.  Members of the US Senate are also moving toward legislation which would give Congress authority to review the agreement.

Thailand’s military lifted martial law ten months after it seized power in a coup d’etat.   The move is a welcome one, but it appears as if the military will retain power through Article 44 of the Thai constitution.  Nonetheless, pressure from human rights activists and business groups has taken a toll on the Thai economy, and the military is clearly trying to reassure the world that the country is moving back toward democracy.

Islamic State fighters have claimed that they have seized control of the Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria.  The camp is populated by about 500,000 Palestinian refugees and is remarkably close to the capital city of Damascus.   If the reports are accurate, they suggest that the Islamic State is making significant progress in its fight against President Assad.

Income and wealth inequality is unquestionably the most important economic issue of the contemporary world, yet few really understand its significance.  Most of us very rarely interact with the very, very rich and therefore have no idea how wide the gap may be.  Studies indicate that most Americans significantly underestimate the degree of inequality and it is very likely that those numbers represent the vast majority of people on the planet.

The negotiations in Switzerland between the P5+1 and Iran have passed the deadline, but the US and Iranian delegations are still at it.  Other delegations have left, but both the US and Iran desperately need an agreement.  The Washington Post has a very good article on the remaining issues–it is a fair and dispassionate account of what keeps the two sides apart.

Muhammadu Buhari has declared victory, and Goodluck Jonathan has conceded defeat, in the Nigerian elections.  Buhari won decisively in the northern part of the country (as expected), but it appears as if the people of Nigeria were looking to put behind them the corruption of the current government.  Moreover, many expect Buhari to be more effective in dealing with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north.  The election was a victory for democracy in Nigeria with the peaceful transition of power.

Antarctica recorded its highest temperature at a record high of 63.5F (17.5C) on 24 March (much warmer than in was in South Hadley on that day).  The record is a troubling sign of global warming and it comes amid growing evidence that the ice sheets in Antarctica are melting at a faster rate than had been realized.

It is not often that we are able to witness major shifts in the balance of power as they happen.  But since March of 2003, there has been a slow but steady shift of power toward Iran in the Middle East, and the US has slowly but surely been moving to acknowledge that shift.  The changes in policy associated with that change are often not openly acknowledged, but it seems obvious that the US and Iran are moving toward a rapprochement.

Pakistan has joined the Saudi coalition to fight the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  The Saudi coalition of Sunni Muslim states has become a global one with the addition of Pakistan.  The relationship between the two states is long-standing, and Pakistan has been the recipient of Saudi financial assistance in the past.  The alliance, however, brings a nuclear power to the battle.  Moreover, the alliance will certainly aggravate the Shia minority in Pakistan.

The Nigerian presidential election was not perfect, but outside election monitors do not believe that the technological glitches or the outbreaks of sporadic violence in certain polling areas fundamentally compromised the outcome.  The vote-counting process is still going on, and right now Goodluck Jonthan has a very small lead over his opponent, Muhammadu Buhari.  There are, however, numerous complaints of fraud that need to be investigated before the outcome can be determined.  There still remains the possibility of violence once the results are announced.

The Iranian negotiations are going down to the wire.  The deadline for a political framework is midnight on Tuesday, and Russian foreign Minister Lavrov left the talks with a comment that he would return only if there was progress in the talks.  There really is no way to assess the likelihood of success or failure–all the participants have been very close-mouthed about the remaining issues.  The Tuesday deadline is only the first step.  Even if the deadline is met, the deadline for the final technical agreement is 30 June.

The West has placed a lot of faith in the economic sanctions it has placed on Russia as the most effective way to get Russia to change its policies toward Ukraine.  There is little question that the sanctions have had a dramatic effect on the Russian economy, but there are reasons to believe that the sanctions will not be effective.  At some point the West will have to reassess whether it should apply greater pressure in the form of military aid to Kiev or whether it should simply concede that eastern Ukraine will ultimately become part of Russia.

The emerging war in Yemen is not only politically destabilizing–it could be economically destabilizing as well.  A lot of oil flows through the Red Sea and oil prices shot up 6% last week as traders began to fear some sort of blockade on traffic through the crowded chokepoint.  There are a number of countries who have a strong vested interest in the control of the Red Sea, and none of them will allow access to be compromised in any way.

Japan has commissioned a new helicopter destroyer, the JS Izumo, which be the largest vessel in the Japanese fleet.  Japan is careful to point out that the vessel will be used for the dispatch of helicopters, but the world is well aware of the fact that the vessel could also accommodate fixed-wing aircraft, making the ship the functional equivalent of an aircraft carrier.  The Japanese military buildup is largely in response to a similar Chinese military program.  The arms race, however, is the classic example of the security dilemma where purely defensive moves are often interpreted by others as offensive and aggressive.

Physicians for Social Responsibility is a non-governmental organization that addresses the medical issues associated with various public policies.  It has published a new study on the civilian casualties in the American interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in the “war on terror” since 2003.  The American military did not publish information on civilian casualties in those wars, and we have relied only on unsystematic studies for estimates.  This study uses accepted techniques for those estimates, and the conclusions are significantly higher than earlier ones.  Unfortunately, civilian casualties did not figure prominently in the American discussions of the wars.  For purposes of the quiz on 1 April, I will only use information from pages 15-18 of the study.

The Iranian negotiations are going down to the wire.   They are scheduled to end on Sunday, and reports are that many of the issues have been resolved but some still remain.  The negotiators have been working overtime, and Iranian President Rouhani made a point of contacting the heads of state of each of the P5+1.  It seems clear that all parties want to reach agreement, so the final unresolved matters must be of serious consequence.

The US has found itself allied with Iran against the Islamic State.  And now it finds itself allied with Saudi Arabia against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.  The shifting alliances are creating incredible uncertainty in the Middle East, and the potential for miscalculation increases with every violent outbreak.  Needless to say, the situation in the region is becoming increasingly dangerous.