World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Today is the 71st anniversary of the allied invasion of France (commonly known as D-Day) in World War II.  It marked the beginning of the end of Nazi power in Europe (the Germans would surrender in May 1945), but the Soviets had been fighting the Germans effectively on the Eastern Front since the breaking of the siege of Stalingrad in February 1943.  The invasion was quite costly in terms of allied lives, but it remains one of the most ambitious and successful military maneuvers in military history.

Juan José Morales has reviewed a book by Serge Gruzinski entitled The Eagle and the Dragon.  The book is an analysis of the beginnings of European imperialism in China by the Portuguese and Mexico by the Spanish which occurred virtually simultaneously in  1519-20.  The analysis is quite revealing:

The Portuguese failure in China drew a dividing line between Asia and America. On one side was a New World which would give its raison d’être to the West, and whose wealth, population and spaces would be ruthlessly exploited; on the other was Imperial China, which would absorb much of the silver extracted from the mines of America by the defeated Indians and African slaves. The fate of the two shores of the Pacific was now linked, as the Iberians had laid down the economic and political bases for a massive decanting of precious metal. The history of the colonization of the New World would have China always in the background, America would be a constant presence in that of modern China.

None of the actors involved was aware of how their destinies were intertwined.   But the history of European imperialism would have been quite different if both invasions had not occurred at roughly the same time.

India and Bangladesh have settled a long-standing set of border disputes.  The disputes are the residual of British imperialism and the flawed partition of India in 1947 and the subsequent creation of Bangladesh in 1971.  Currently there are 162 “enclaves” that do not respect the territorial boundaries, and the resolution of these issues should lead to much better relations between the two states.

The issue of how the Islamic State arose has been an interesting development in the Republican presidential primary campaigns.  It was sparked by a comment to Jeb Bush that his brother, George W. Bush, was responsible for the rise of the Islamic State.  There is no single answer to the question but there should be little doubt that the Islamic State has a very large number of former Iraqi military and government officials who were disenfranchised by the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.  In many respects, the Islamic State is merely an attempt by the former Sunni rulers of the state to regain their former power.

We have long suspected that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been talking to each other about the threat posed to each from Iran.  But Saudi Arabia has never recognized the state of Israel and it would be supremely awkward for the two states to admit cooperation.  But they have finally openly acknowledged their discussions in a meeting of the Council on Foreign Relations.  The states have met in India, Italy, and the Czech Republic.  In the speeches given by the two representatives, Anwar Majed Eshki from Saudi Arabia and Dore Gold from Israel, there was little question that both states consider Iran to be an enemy of the highest order.  We will have to see if there is a public reaction to the information from citizens of both states who still regard the other as a prime enemy.

Vietnam is offering its citizens a patriotic cruise through the Spratley Islands ( or Truong Sa in Vietnamese).  It is a six day trip through some of the most contested space on the planet.  The promotional brochure for the cruise is unabashed in its patriotism:

“Traveling to Truong Sa … means the big trip of your life, reviving national pride and citizens’ awareness of the sacred maritime sovereignty of the country.”

“Tourists will no longer feel Truong Sa as far away, the blue Truong Sa ocean will be deep in people’s hearts.”

China and Vietnam have already exchanged fire among the islands and the historical relationship between China and Vietnam is competitive. The two states have fought many wars.

The personnel records of 4 million current and former federal employees were hacked, and the US government believes that Chinese hackers were responsible for the breach.   The records were from the Office of Personnel Management and contained numerous bits of information that were sensitive and revealing.   The US Government did not reveal the basis for the accusation against China, but, if true, it represents only the most recent episode of what could be described as cyberwarfare.  How to respond to such attacks is a very difficult decision to make.

Ghana has been hit by serious flooding.  Heavy rains are not unusual in June, but the capital city of Accra experienced heavy damage from the floods and there were multiple deaths from gas explosions associated with the flooding.  Ghana’s infrastructure is fragile despite promises from the government to make improvements.  The flooding is a serious setback to Ghana’s economic development and the costs of recovery are going to be difficult for the state to manage.

The IMF has just issued a paper on public debt which suggests that its own austerity programs are harmful (you will have to download the report to read it, but the report is free).  The abstract says it best:

We argue that, for countries with ample fiscal space (little risk of encountering a fiscal crisis), raising distortive taxes merely to bring the debt down is a treatment cure that is worse than the disease. High public debt of course is costly, but it is a sunk cost only made worse by efforts to pay down the debt through distortionary taxation.

Many have been arguing precisely that point for many years, but the IMF nonetheless has insisted upon its austerity programs.  We will have to see if the IMF believes it own authors.

One of the most interesting aspects of American foreign policy is the extent to which there is a persistent theme among the general population that the US is an “exceptional” country.  That belief existed from the founding of the Republic, as the population genuinely believed that the creation of the United States was a new and different moment in human history.  And there is no question that the geographic circumstances of the United States are quite different from most countries in the world with its vast expanse of fertile but underpopulated land.  For some in the US, particularly among what are called the neoconservatives, the exceptional character of the US also gives it a special voice in world affairs–a point of view most certainly not shared by the rest of the world.

When President Obama first took office, he held a very limited view of American exceptionalism.  On 4 April 2009, US President Obama held a press conference in Strasbourg, France in which there was the following exchange between a reporter and the President:

Newly elected Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has decided to keep the oil portfolio for himself rather than allocate it to someone else.  Buhari has served on the Petroleum Trust Fund and was the oil minister in the 1970s, and he takes the role of oil in the Nigerian economy very seriously.  Buhari is not a strong supporter of Western conceptions of human rights, but he has a reputation for financial rectitude.  The move is a very hopeful sign that perhaps Nigeria’s incredible riches will be used to serve the interests of the people as a whole.

Dominic Tierney has written a fascinating essay entitled “Why Has America Stopped Winning Wars?”  The question resonates strongly with those of us who grew up in the Cold War:  the major wars of that period, such as Korea and Vietnam, proved to be inconclusive in the traditional sense of winning a war.  Tierney’s argument is best captured in this passage:

“In Korea, the United States spent two years negotiating a truce, even as brutal attritional fighting continued. In Vietnam, peace talks lasted for five years, with little to show for them. It took 21 days to capture Baghdad in 2003 and 3,174 days to leave. U.S. forces seized Kabul in November 2001—and they’re still there.”

It is a question that Americans need to consider more thoughtfully as conflicts around the world threaten to involve American interests.

There have been a very large number of popular protests in Africa since 2011–virtually every country on the continent has experienced some level of political dissent and some of those protests have been quite violent.  In many respects the discontent mirrors the same issues as reflected in the Arab Spring and the protests in Europe.  The rate of economic change in many African states is quite high, and it seems clear that in many countries citizens are demanding much more of their governments than has been the case in the past.

The internet has opened up a huge variety of new sources of information, some of which tap into the genius of ordinary minds.  One such site is bellin¿cat.com which is a citizen’s resource for investigative journalism.  The site has done a review of the claims that Russia was responsible for the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner, MH17, which crashed in Ukraine 0n 17 July 2014.  Russia has strenuously denied any involvement in the crash and offered up satellite images to prove its claim.  bellin¿cat did its own search of satellite images using open sources (Google Earth) and found the Russian claims to be false.  The virtue of such a finding is that it does not involve evidence provided by a state (such as the US or other NATO states)  that may have its own reasons for presenting misleading evidence.

The US has some form of defense relationship with 69 countries and these countries make up around 75 percent of the world’s economic output.  These alliances commit the US to some degree in defending 25%  of the human population.  This information comes from Michael Beckley, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Tufts University, who has recently published an article entitled “The Myth of Entangling Alliances“.  The article is quite sophisticated in its analysis and is definitely worth a read.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the latest in the efforts by market capitalist economies to pursue a truly global market.  It is being pushed by US President Obama and the Republicans in Congress as a significant boost to economic activity.  Many Democrats do not share this enthusiasm.  The Economist, one of the strongest supporters of free trade in the world, analyzes parts of the trade pact to see how much it would boost economic activity.  Its conclusions are cautiously positive, but raise some interesting questions about the overall benefits of the pact.

A factory in Guangdong province of China has opened what it considered to be the first “zero-labor” factory.   Everwin Precision Technology Ltd is starting up a factory that will create products primarily by robots with humans only being used to manage the activities and to run software.  The shift to robots reflects a growing labor shortage in China as migration patterns change and as the population ages.  The local government intends to push for roboticizing manufacturing processes as much as possible.

US Secretary of State broke his thigh bone in a bicycle accident in Switzerland and has therefore left the talks with the P5+1 and Iran.  Yet, apparently, the US and Europe have reached an agreement with China and Russia on what would happen if Iran broke its commitments to the agreement.  According to Reuters:

As part of the new agreement on sanctions snapback, suspected breaches by Iran would be taken up by a dispute-resolution panel, likely including the six powers and Iran, which would assess the allegations and come up with a non-binding opinion, the officials said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would also continue regularly reporting on Iran’s nuclear program, which would provide the six powers and the Security Council with information on Tehran’s activities to enable them to assess compliance.

If Iran was found to be in non-compliance with the terms of the deal, then U.N. sanctions would be restored.

The cumbersome nature of the agreement can only be interpreted as a victory for Russia and China which have opposed any “automatic” reinstatement of the sanctions.  It is also a victory for Iran which will not have to be subjected to arbitrary findings by the P5+1.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wrote an article for Le Monde which blasted the troika for the difficulties in resolving Greek sovereign debt.   In the article, Tsipras outlines all the steps the Greek government has taken to meet the terms of the troika and asks the question why the troika remains unsatisfied:

So, let’s be clear:

The lack of an agreement so far is not due to the supposed intransigent, uncompromising and incomprehensible Greek stance.

It is due to the insistence of certain institutional actors on submitting absurd proposals and displaying a total indifference to the recent democratic choice of the Greek people, despite the public admission of the three Institutions that necessary flexibility will be provided in order to respect the popular verdict.

What is driving this insistence?

His answer raises a very serious question about the intentions of the troika:

My conclusion, therefore, is that the issue of Greece does not only concern Greece; rather, it is the very epicenter of conflict between two diametrically opposing strategies concerning the future of European unification.

The first strategy aims to deepen European unification in the context of equality and solidarity between its people and citizens.

The proponents of this strategy begin with the assumption that it is not possible to demand that the new Greek government follows the course of the previous one – which, we must not forget, failed miserably. This assumption is the starting point, because otherwise, elections would need to be abolished in those countries that are in a Program. Namely, we would have to accept that the institutions should appoint the Ministers and Prime Ministers, and that citizens should be deprived of the right to vote until the completion of the Program.

In other words, this means the complete abolition of democracy in Europe, the end of every pretext of democracy, and the beginning of disintegration and of an unacceptable division of United Europe.

This means the beginning of the creation of a technocratic monstrosity that will lead to a Europe entirely alien to its founding principles.

Tsipras is invoking the specter of 1984 and casts the international institutions as Big Brother.  His claim will undoubtedly resonate with many of the nationalist movements in EUrope today.

There have been two bomb blasts in Saudi Arabia for which the Islamic State has taken credit.  The IS’s claim to be the caliphate rings hollow without control of both Mecca and Medina (and Jerusalem), so it is clear that ISIS would like very much to control Saudi territory.  But the bombings suggest that Saudi internal control is less solid than the Kingdom claims.  That the Islamic State is capable of launching such attacks is worrisome to the overall stability of the Middle East and should raise questions for the US about its alliance with the Kingdom.

The heat wave in India continues and the death toll is nearing 2,000.  Those that have died are largely children and poor workers who are working outside in strenuous conditions.  The heat wave may be a harbinger of what the world might be like if global warming continues.   The rich will be able to adapt–air conditioning can make such temperatures tolerable.  But those who cannot protect themselves because they cannot afford to make such adaptations will surely suffer.

Turkey has parliamentary elections on 7 June and President Tayyip Erdogan is making a strong push on behalf of his party, Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party).  The AK Party is pro-Islamist and Erdogan has been largely responsible for moving Turkey away from the strongly secular path endorsed by the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.  The election is predicted to be a close one, and the outcome seems to be dependent on the support given to the Kurdish parties in the election.

The rate of change in the world has accelerated far beyond anything imagined 30 years ago.  The McKinsey Global Institute has published a book entitled No Ordinary Disruption which analyzes these changes and is reviewed by John Yunker.  Its four major trends according to Yunker are:

1. The age of urbanization, creating massive new cities in emerging economies. By 2025, 48 of the largest 200 cities will be in China. This is resulting in a shift in the earth’s economic “center of gravity” back towards Asia. The center of gravity used to be centered over India and China and now it’s headed back again.
2. Accelerating technological change. It used to take a very long time for a technology to reach “scale” — but now, driven in large part by mobile penetration of smartphones, an application can go from one to 500 million users in less than a year.
3. Aging populations, placing a greater economic burden on fewer workers. China is a lot like the US in facing a future with fewer workers relative to the number of elderly.
4. Greater (and more complex) interconnectedness. We’re all more tightly connected than ever before, which is nice if you want to sell your product anywhere in the world, but uncomfortable when you realize anyone else in the world is now a potential competitor.

The rate of change can be demonstrated graphically by looking at the world’s economic center of activity.  Look at how fast it has moved in the last few years:

The US has finally removed Cuba from its list of states sponsoring terrorism.  Cuba has been on the list since 1982 when the US accused Cuba of supporting rebels in El Salvador.  Whatever Cuba did in supporting guerrilla groups in the world, those activities pale in comparison to the US efforts to overthrow Fidel Castro (including hiring the Mafia to assassinate Castro).  That the US supported terrorism in a series of activities called “Operation Mongoose” is beyond question.    Robert Kennedy, the Attorney General at the time, wrote these words in the White House in November, 1961:

“My idea is to stir things up on the island with espionage, sabotage, general disorder, run and operated by Cubans themselves with every group but Batistaites and Communists. Do not know if we will be successful in overthrowing Castro but we have nothing to lose in my estimate.”

Michael Klare is my colleague at Hampshire College and an astute critic of American foreign policy.  He has written an essay entitled “Delusionary Thinking in Washington, The Desperate Plight of a Declining Superpower”.   The essence of his argument can be found in this sentence: “Anyone who believes that the clock can now be turned back to 2002, when U.S. strength was at its zenith and the Iraq invasion had not yet depleted American wealth and vigor, is undoubtedly suffering from delusional thinking.”  The essay is definitely worth reading.

The most popular sport in the world, football to most, but soccer to American fans, has been roiled for many years by charges of corruption against its governing body, Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA).  The US and Swiss authorities have arrested several high officials in the organization for taking bribes after years of non-action by other countries.  Many believe that the US is simply retaliating for losing out on the World Cup to Qatar, and it would be hard to deny the charge.  But it would also be hard to deny that the charges against FIFA are quite compelling.  Nonetheless, Russian President Putin believes that the US has gone too far in exercising its legal authority to bring these charges against non-Americans.

The US is not the only country to extend its laws abroad.  Spain is a country that claims universal jurisdiction over crimes against humanity.  Accordingly, it has charged Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, with crimes against humanity in the case of an attack committed in 2013 in which a Spanish nun was assaulted.  Spain’s universal jurisdiction only operates when a Spanish national is affected by the crime.