The UN has issued a report on violent deaths in Iraq over a 20-month period. The number of civilians killed is very high: almost 19,000 from January 2014 to October 2015. In addition, the UN estimates that as many as 3,500 women and girls are being held as slaves by Daesh (the Islamic State). The UN accuses Daesh for most of those deaths, but the instability in Iraq can be explained more prosaically as an attempt by the minority Sunni population in Iraq to regain its position of predominance in the country when Saddam Hussein was in charge.
Taiwan’s opposition party, the Democratic Progress Party, won a stunning victory in the recent Presidential election. The President-elect, Tsai Ing-wen, is the first woman to lead the island country, and she has, in the past, advocated for independence from China. Most of the world has accepted the fact that Taiwan is in fact part of China and not an independent state–a recognition signaled by US President Nixon in 1972. Tsai has indicated that she will not seek Taiwanese independence, but her election clearly indicates dissatisfaction with the island’s previous policy of rapprochement with China.
The rise of right-wing parties in Europe is a topic of great concern to the supporters of liberal democracy. There are, however, states in what used to be called eastern Europe that have already embraced “illiberal” democracy (presumably a form of democracy that offers few, if any, protections for individual freedoms, although the term “illiberal” has never been precisely defined. The leader of Hungary, Viktor Orban has declared that his objective for the country is an illiberal democracy. Now, however, the largest eastern European state and one of the most important states on the continent, Poland, seems to be moving in the same direction. Non-citizens of those states, including immigrants and refugees, have much to fear from this turn to the right.
Global stock markets are going through a very volatile period, and some analysts believe that the volatility suggests fundamental weaknesses in the global economy. The German newspaper, Finanz und Wirtschaft, conducted an interview with Art Cashin, a long-time stock analyst, about what is going on, and the interview suggests that the weaknesses are more fundamental than they superficially seem to be. Nonetheless, the economies of the world continue to favor the rich at the expense of the poor and recent data indicates that there are 62 people in the world who command as much wealth as the bottom 50% of the human race (3.5 billion people).
The Economist has an article on the parallels between the Thirty Years War (1618-1648) and the religious conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims. It is an intriguing essay, but one which overemphasizes the importance of religion in the struggles. By and large, religion is usually a veneer for power: one sect mistrusts the other, not because of religious differences, but because it fears that power will be used to favor one sect over the other. The fear of the abuse of power is usually the driver in conflicts that seem to stem from religious, ethnic, or ideological difference.
Hurricane Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in January. The event itself was highly unusual, but its effect on the ice pack in Greenland is proving to be even stranger. A number of researchers who study ice melt in Greenland have noticed suggestive evidence of ice melt because of the warm waters forced north by the hurricane. If the evidence becomes stronger, then the globe may be experiencing the first recorded winter ice melt–evidence that global warming has become virtually unstoppable.
Climate Central has constructed an interactive map that describes the earth if climate change processes are left completely unchecked. Without any reduction of greenhouse gases, the global temperature will rise by about 4 degrees Celsius. The implications are stark:
China, the world’s leading carbon emitter, leads the world, too, in coastal risk, with 145 million people living on land ultimately threatened by rising seas if emission levels are not reduced.
China has the most to gain from limiting warming to 2°C, which would cut the total to 64 million.
Twelve other nations each have more than 10 million people living on land at risk, led by India, Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Japan.
The U.S. is the most threatened nation outside of Asia, with roughly 25 million people on implicated land.
Meeting the 2°C goal would cut exposure by more than half in the U.S., China, and India, the world’s top three carbon emitters, as well as in many other nations.
Global megacities with the top-10 largest threatened populations include Shanghai, Hong Kong, Calcutta, Mumbai, Dhaka, Jakarta, and Hanoi.
Sean McElwee and Vijay Das have written an op-ed piece for Al Jazeera on how campaign financing is affecting the healthcare debate in the United States. The evidence is sobering: 0.1% of the American population contributed 30% of all the campaign funds in the 2012 presidential election cycle. The choices available to the American people on healthcare is overwhelmingly influenced by these contributions.
Daesh (Islamic State) adherents staged a terror attack in central Jakarta in Indonesia. The attack mirrors other such attacks–no evidence of centralized direction but rather attacks conducted by individuals inspired by Daesh propaganda. These types of attacks are not necessarily debilitating to a strong polity, but can weaken one that already lacks a degree of legitimacy.
Scientific American has created two interactive visualizations of the refugee crisis in the world today. The effects are quite dramatic and one can choose to isolate specific countries or time periods. It is a very impressive site.
e-waste is a serious problem globally and much of the electronic waste generated in the world comes from the rich countries. Much of this waste is sent to poorer countries where a remarkable percentage of it is effectively recycled. But a lot of the toxic waste ends up being burned in poorer countries and it is a serious health problem.
I have posted many articles about the growing income inequality in the US which I regard as the most serious problem in the country right now. It has been getting worse over the last 40 years, and one of the main causes of inequality is the way the tax system favors capital over labor income. The National Bureau of Economic Research has just published a report on a tax technique of which I was unaware: the growth of “pass-through” entities which allows corporate profits to be taxed at a much lower rate. According to the NBER report:
In 1980, pass-through entities accounted for 20.7 percent of U.S. business income; by 2011, they represented 54.2 percent. Over roughly the same period, the income share of the top 1 percent of income earners doubled. Previous research has shown that the two phenomena are linked: The growth of income from pass-through entities accounted for 41 percent of the rise in the income of the top 1 percent. By linking 2011 partnership and S corporation tax returns with federal individual income tax returns, in particular Form 1065 and Form 1120S K-1 returns, the researchers find that over 66 percent of pass-through business income received by individuals goes to the top 1 percent. The concentration of partnership and S corporation income is much greater than the concentration of dividend income (45 percent to the top 1 percent) which proxies for income from C corporations (traditional corporations). While taxpayers in the top 1 percent are eight times as likely to receive dividends as taxpayers in the bottom 50 percent, the ratio for partnerships is more than 50 to 1.
Such is the sleight of hand used to disguise how the rich get richer.
Ian Buruma is a brilliant analyst/historian of world politics. One of his more recent essays analyzes the rhetoric of the current Republican candidates with respect to US policies toward Daesh (the Islamic State), specifically Senator Cruz’s promise to “carpet bomb” the caliphate and Trump’s promise to “bomb the shit” out of Daesh. Buruma points out the vulgar silliness of such policy prescriptions, advocated by people who know absolutely nothing about the experience of war.
One of the reasons why the Saudi-Iranian conflict is so sharp is because most of Saudi oil and gas reserves are in areas populated by Shia Muslims who have more of an affinity for Iran than the Sunni-dominated Saudi government. A quick glance at a map shows how the Saudis might legitimately fear for control of their most precious resource. The dark green areas are Shia-majority and the light green are Sunni-majority. The black and red are oil and gas reserves.
Rami Khouri is a very smart analyst of Middle Eastern affairs. His interpretation of the growing Saudi-Iranian discord is right on target–not alarmist but sufficiently sober. His essay, however, has an insight which I had not though about before. The dynamic of this hostility may lead to the break-up of some well-established states. Such an transformation would be very unstable when it occurred but might be more stable in the long run.
There’s lot going on in the stock markets all around the world, and all of it is bad. The Shanghai stock market was open for only 29 minutes before it was closed to trades because the index had fallen by over 7%. The US stock market is now officially in “correction” because it has fallen over 10% from its previous high. Financial uncertainty always aggravates world politics, but there is usually a lag in time. Incredibly, the Saudis are losing a great deal of money and are thinking the unthinkable: selling ARAMCO, arguably the most valuable company in the world as an initial public offering (IPO)
The dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran continues to deepen, although it is not likely that an open, violent confrontation will take place any time soon. The dispute is long-standing over dominance in the Middle East although many continue to refer to the dispute as a Shia-Sunni split. However, that issue is overblown by Westerners and, to the extent that it is valid, it is also constant. What has changed is the relative distribution of power between the two. Iran has been slowly gaining power largely due to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the successful nuclear agreement. At the same time Saudi Arabia has been losing influence largely due to the change in the government and Saudi stubbornness on the issue of its support for Wahabist groups abroad.
Stock markets all over the world took a major hit today and evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is slowing down. Lost in all the panic, however, is the fate of some very important middle-income countries to global growth. The worst case is probably Brazil as it has slid steadily into a crushing recession.
Sweden introduced border controls on refugees entering from Denmark. The change in policy reflects the incredible pressure on what has always been the most welcoming country in the world to refugees. Although press coverage of the refugee crisis has tapered off, the crisis continues almost unabated despite the onset of winter.
A strong theme in the Republican primary debates is that the US should “do more” in the Middle East. But the details of what should be done are few and far between (except for Senator Cruz’s suggestion to carpet bomb Daesh). One of my old college friends, Paul Pillar, has written an essay that shreds these vapid suggestions.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have exchanged serious diplomatic insults after Saudi Arabia executed Shaikh Nimr al Nimr, an outspoken defender of the rights of Shia Muslims. Nimr was one 47 persons executed by Saudi Arabia at the of the year. Those who oppose capital punishment decried the Saudi attitude toward human rights.
It is safe to say that since the Great Recession which began in 2008, there are very people who really understand what is going on in the global economy. With globalization, roboticization, zero and negative interest rates, and incredible rates of indebtedness, the world is in uncharted waters. The Atlantic polled some analysts to tap into their insights. It is a sobering group of statements.
World Politics News 