If one needs fodder for nightmares, one need look no further than the report issued by the Global Challenges Foundation, “Global Catastrophic Risks, 2016”. The report looks at the probabilities of events such as catastrophic climate change, nuclear war, natural pandemics, supervolcanoes, and every other way we define catastrophe. The report outlines the steps that need to be taken by the global community to be prepared to react to such events–good advice, but unlikely to be heeded.
The US is planning a massive military drill, the International Mine Countermeasures Exercise, in the Arabian Gulf (the Iranians insist that that body of water is called the Persian Gulf), the Sea of Oman, the Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea. The US 5th Fleet is involved as are over thirty countries, and the purpose is to assure safe passage through maritime choke points–over thirty percent of the world’s oil sails through the Strait of Hormoz. Iran, however, believes that the US is actually conducting activities that are hostile to the regime and has threatened to close off the Straits in retaliation. At its narrowest point, the Straits have a width of only 54 km.
Austria has indicated that it wishes to impose border controls at the Brenner Pass, a route that many refugees use to move from Italy to Austria. There were large protests against the move on the Italian side as people indicated that they do not wish to see the open passage between countries in the Schengen Plan. Italian police tried to control the protest, but Austrian police did not intervene.
Drought is affecting large areas of the planet. Zimbabwe is suffering so much that it is thinking about selling some of its wild animal stock to raise money. Cambodia is witnessing the deaths of many of its farm and wild animals due to lack of water. Canada is facing a catastrophic fire as large forested areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan have completely dried up. One can never say that any particular event is “caused” by climate change, but the confluence of these events provides a strong case.
Several countries in the south of the European Union have labored under austerity programs imposed by the European Central Bank, the EU, and the IMF. These programs are designed to make the ailing economies more competitive, and the incentive for these countries to accept these cutbacks to human services is the prospect of receiving additional loans to service their sovereign debt. A new study, however, indicates that virtually all the bail-out money goes to private banks which hold the debt: only 5% of the bail-out money is used to stimulate the economy. The rest goes out of the country to large banks that hold the sovereign debt.
Sadiq Khan has been elected the mayor of London, becoming the first Muslim to hold that high office, bucking the anti-Muslim sentiment that seems to be growing in Europe. Khan is the son of immigrants to Great Britain and campaigned on a platform of police reform, opposition to a British exit from the European Union, and on a strong environmental effort to make London a “green” city. London is one of the most ethnically and religiously diverse cities in Europe, and this election is testimony to the growing power of the Labour Party after years of Tory rule.
The Guardian has published a video of a firefight between Daesh (the Islamic State) and American and Kurdish forces in which an American SEAL was killed. US President Obama has steadily increased the number of US combat troops in Syria and Iraq but has promised that they only serve in an advisory capacity. No one had any illusions that an “advisory” role excluded combat, but the video shows that US troops are fully engaged in combat roles.
In response to NATO’s moves in placing rotating military forces in Poland and the Baltic States, Russia has announced the formation of three new military divisions for its western and southern military districts. It was unclear whether the new Russian forces would also be “rotating”. The provision is necessary since Russia and NATO agreed in the 1990s not to increase their permanent forces in hopes of diminishing the threat of war. But ever since the controversy over Ukraine there has been a steady escalation of forces and provocative actions by both sides.
Russian Military Districts
General Sisi, the leader of Egypt, has stated that “Western” human rights do not apply universally and are inappropriate in judging civic society in Egypt. The General made the comments to a US Congressional delegation and it will be interesting to see how the comment will be conveyed to the American people. Sisi has been under great pressure for placing journalists under controls by the Egyptian state and he shows little responsiveness to outside influence to alter course.
The Economist has raised a very important question that if far too often ignored: How do we measure prosperity? Most people refer to a state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of a state’s economic well-being. That metric fails badly since it only measures the total value of the “stuff” that is produced in a specific economy. The journal makes a compelling case for improving the measures of the well-being of the people who reside in a state. Many of these improvements are logical, but somewhat difficult to operationalize. Nonetheless, we should discard the idea that the GDP offers a genuine insight into the idea of prosperity.
China has reacted to the likelihood that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for President in November. In an editorial in China Times, a media outlet often presumed to speak for the central government, the Communist Party characterized the Trump candidacy in this way:
“If Trump really captures the White House, what will it mean? This scenario is becoming increasingly serious.
“The US traditional political elite and media have long ignored the drastic changes in US society. Rising against the repression of the GOP establishment and the mockery of US mainstream media, Trump will substantially shake the conventional US’ way of operation. Acquiring more authority from US society, he will be expected to bring in more reforms, that might change many established policies.
“According to Trump’s current policy proposals, a Trump-led US might be inclined to isolationism and attach more importance to ‘America First,’ and American economy. Ideology will be downplayed. Washington might engage in more squabbles with its free-riding allies, and tighten up its immigration policy which as a result will upset the Latin Americans. After enjoying massive trade surplus from the US for years, China and Japan will be demanded by Washington to widen market access.”
Interestingly, the Chinese are more sanguine about a Trump presidency–one gets the sense that the Chinese believe that, although unpredictable, Trump will be someone with whom they can work.
Nepal’s government is close to collapse after Maoist parties threatened to leave the government coalition. Disaffection with the government of Prime Minister K.P. Oli has grown because of the slow response to last year’s devastating earthquake as well as concerns among minority ethnic groups that Oli’s plan to reorganize the electoral provinces of Nepal will lead to a diminution of their power. The latter fear is particularly acute among the Madhesis who live in the lowlands along the Indian border, but many in Nepal believe that the Madheses are acting under the influence of the Indian government.
Eastern India and much of southeast Asia is suffering under an intense heatwave. More than 300 have died in India and temperature records have been set in both Cambodia and Laos. In the Indian state of Bihar, outdoor fires have been banned during daytime hours because of very dry temperatures and high winds which have been responsible for fires. Life is particularly difficult for farmers who must choose between letting their crops go or working outside in the crippling heat. The mid-June monsoon season cannot come quickly enough.
“As the authority of elites fades, as Establishment values cede to popular ones, views and identities can become so magnificently diverse as to be mutually uncomprehending. And when all the barriers to equality, formal and informal, have been removed; when everyone is equal; when elites are despised and full license is established to do ‘whatever one wants,’ you arrive at what might be called late-stage democracy. There is no kowtowing to authority here, let alone to political experience or expertise.”
Sullivan’s words of caution about the complacency of many about what the movement behind the success of Donald Trump actually means should be heeded. Trump in some sense deserves our scorn; those who support him deserve to be heard.
There are some media genres that seem to be universal, and one of these is the military recruitment video. Here is China’s latest installment, which is virtually indistinguishable from one from any other country on the planet.
Here is the translation, courtesy of Quartz. Unfortunately, I cannot testify to the accuracy of the translation, so viewer beware!
There is always a mission on your mind. There is always an enemy in your view There is always responsibility on your shoulders There is always passion in your heart War could erupt any time Are you ready?
Even if a bullet passes through my chest My mission remains carved in my heart Brothers, let’s follow this path [Roar! Roar! Roar! Roar!] Roar with animal spirit Look to the bravest general of them all Walk from here toward the site of combat
Even if a bullet passes through my chest My mission remains carved in my heart From the center to the borders Let’s go to war, let’s fight to win When we follow the commands of the party The country honors our guardianship The rising head of a loyal patriot If I don’t bear the burden, who else will?
The Economist has a fascinating graphic which shows the ratios between median incomes and income inequality in 18 countries across the globe. The data are collected from the Global Income and Consumption Project at the University of Sussex which has made the data available to the general public and allows individuals to construct their own charts from the data. The data do show that there are serious problems in income inequality in the world–only in Europe has the tendency met some resistance.
One of the areas that will suffer greatly with climate change is the Middle East and North Africa. Researchers have developed models that show that the region will likely suffer most during the summer months, unlike other areas of the planet which would warm more significantly during the inter months. The researchers conclude that
“If Earth’s temperature were to increase the expected two degrees Celsius average (compared to pre-industrial times) the temperature in summer in these regions will increase twice that much. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit. By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). And, they believe, heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.”
There are 500 million people that live in the region and the vast majority of them will likely have to migrate from the region by 2100.
Yesterday was May Day, a day celebrated across the globe (except in the US) as a worker’s day. There were protests in favor of workers’ rights in many places, but some of the largest were in France. The Socialist President, Hollande, has been trying to change France’s labor laws to allow workers to be more easily fired, and the labor movement in France has been protesting for over a month against the reforms. Hollande is quite unpopular and his Socialist credentials are essentially in tatters. But it seems unlikely that the attempt to unravel workers’ protections will be derailed.
There are times when we think that the problems facing humanity are insurmountable. They are, in truth, more serious than many the species has faced in the past (but not all). On the other hand, humanity is also developing tools that are considerably more powerful than were ever available before. Students of world politics should consider working in all fields: artificial intelligence, for example, is giving us the ability to understand many problems that defied comprehension in the past.
The Gallup Poll conducted a poll last March that indicated that concern about climate change has reached the highest level it has ever recorded among Americans. Almost two-thirds of Americans worry about climate change. Interestingly, concern among Republican voters in the US appears to be steadily rising even as the candidates for the party seem reluctant to talk about it.
May 16th will mark the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, the secret treaty between France and Great Britain to divide up the Ottoman Empire during World War I. It is widely regarded as one of the most capricious treaties in the history of diplomacy, dividing up a heavily contested area with nonsensical lines. Yet those borders are largely responsible for the violence that we witness in the Middle East. Trying to imagine redrawing the lines without further violence is impossible. The legacy of imperialism is always present.
Some things are unpredictable, but may be much more likely than we think. We are familiar with many threats, such as a car accident, but the probability of dying in a car accident is actually quite low. What we do not usually consider is a catastrophic event. But history is full of catastrophic events, such as the Plagues of the 1300s or the “Great Plague of Justinian” which killed between 13 and 17% of the human population in 541-42 CE. Those catastrophic events killed millions of people and, over time, the number of people killed in such events is huge raising the probability of dying to a much larger number than the more common ways of dying. In some sense, we are way overdue for such events, although they still remain unpredictable.
Thousands of Iraqi protesters. followers of the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have stormed into the Iraqi Parliament in the heavily fortified “Green Zone” of Baghdad. Demonstrations have been going on for months as the Parliament has refused to consider the reform measures introduced by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi. The Iraqi government seems to be incapable of handling the demands of the competing groups in Iraq, even as it is trying to address the insurgency of Daesh (the Islamic State). It is doubtful that the government will fall any time soon, but it also appears as if nothing substantive can be accomplished by the current government.
The Philippines is holding a national election on 9 May and one of the prominent candidates to succeed President Benigno Aquino is Rodrigo Duterte, who some regard as a Donald Trump-like figure. Duterte was the mayor of the city of Davao which was once a nearly lawless city and is now almost completely peaceful and well-managed. Duterte’s tactics, however, leave a lot to be desired: vigilante groups conducted many assassinations of suspected criminals and Duterte seems comfortable working outside of legal frameworks.
The US Congress has taken the initial steps to make women eligible for the military draft. Right now, only men aged 18-26 are required to register for the draft, but there is growing sentiment that that policy discriminates against women. Women have made enormous strides in achieving a degree of equality in the US military, but much remains to be done. Women are now eligible for combat roles and there is little on paper that prevents them from achieving the highest ranks. It remains to be seen, however, how the American people will react to any steps that would restore military conscription.
China has denied the US aircraft carrierUSS Stennis the right to make a port call at Hong Kong. Such denials are the right of every sovereign nation (unless a vessel is in urgent distress), but China has allowed such vessels to make port calls in the past. It seems clear that the refusal is an expression of Chinese displeasure with the US position on, and activities in, the South China Sea. The US and China have yet to reach any accommodation on the maritime claims in the Sea.
USS Stennis
Sergei Karaganov is Dean of the School of World Economics and International Relations at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics in Russia. He has written an essay for Russia in Global Affairs that presents an alternative view from the American one on the course of international relations since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The essay clearly outlines a quite different understanding of Western actions since that time and it challenges many assumptions about US interventions in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya.
One of the central tenets of liberalism is the separation of church and state, a position which is not held by many countries. The most obvious countries that reject that principle are Islamic states, such as Iran, that adhere to the principle that all laws must conform to religious principles, a position that is identified in liberal states as adherence to sharia law. There are many states with substantial Muslim populations that also believe in sharia law but which profess to be secular. The Pew Research Center has conducted a poll in some of those countries and the results indicate a wide range of views within the domestic populations.
The agony in Syria continues as bombings destroyed a pediatric hospital in the city of Aleppo. The hospital was partially staffed by Doctors without Borders and was in an area of the city held by rebels opposed to the government of President Assad. No one took responsibility for the attack, but it seems likely that the government was responsible given that the area was not under its control. But it is hard to tell: there seems to be nothing more than savage killing going on.
The Chinese Parliament has passed new laws governing the behavior of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in China. The laws, which take effect next year, grant “broad powers to police to question NGO workers, monitor their finances, regulate their work and shut down offices.” It is not clear how the laws will be applied, but they have the potential to restrict severely the growth of civil society in China. Without the ability to forge alliances with citizens of other countries, the Chinese people will be completely dependent upon the good will of their government.
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