The US and Iran (and, implicitly, Israel) have agreed upon a two-week cease-fire in the current war. The agreement was sponsored by Pakistan and had a variety of conditions that are typical for a cease-fire. But there is one very important concession that was made by the Trump Administration–it implicitly recognizes the right of Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times reports:
“Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, a veteran of past nuclear negotiations with the United States, said in a statement that if Israel and the United States halt their attacks, Iran will also suspend its ‘defensive operation’ for two weeks. But he said ‘Iran’s Armed Forces’ would retain control of the waterway. That would leave Iran in fundamental control of the passageway, and over the pace at which a huge backup of tankers would be allowed to deliver oil to Europe and Asia, helium to semiconductor plants around the world and fertilizer to farmers from Africa to Asia.”
This is a significant concession by the US and most likely one that will not sit well with the Gulf Arab states who now will have to accept Iranian control of the Strait. Additionally, Israel’s objective of disarming the Iranian nuclear program seems to be a very remote possibility, short of a ground invasion into Iran.
Trump finally had to concede the geopolitical advantage of Iran in holding a lever over the global economy. Despite spending almost $60 billion in five weeks, the US and Israel had to submit to the political ambitions of Trump. Trump revealed that the price of oil is the most important consideration in his decision-making: more important than keeping nuclear weapons out of Iranian hands; more important than stopping a state-sponsor of terrorism; more important than protecting the rights of Iranians to protest; and more important than getting revenge for a purported assassination attempt against Trump.
Trump should have accepted that geopolitical reality before he launched the war. If he had, then he would not have started the war because none of the alleged crimes of the Iranian regime really matter to him. Trump’s capitulation is truly pitiful because it was based on deep ignorance and fantasy. And his capitulation will haunt American foreign policy for years to come. What state could possibly take US assurances seriously after this fiasco?
World Politics News 
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