It seems to me that Israeli Prime Minister is trying to goad Iran into war. A drone attack in Beirut assassinated Saleh Al-Arouri, deputy head of the political bureau of Hamas, on Tuesday. Al-Arouri acted as a liaison between Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon and was a critical figure in Hamas. Although Israel has not taken responsibility for the act, it seems clear that there are few other possibilities. And that act was followed by two bomb explosions near the tomb of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani which killed almost 100 people who were observing the 4th anniversary of Soleimani’s assassination by US forces. Again, Israel has not taken responsibility for the bombing, but it seems likely that Israel coordinated the attack.
The attacks elicited responses from both Hezbollah and Iran. The Washington Post reports:
“Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah said in an address Wednesday that Israel should expect ‘a response and punishment’ a day after the death of senior Hamas leader Saleh Arouri in a suspected Israeli drone strike in a Beirut suburb. Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group based in Lebanon, has traded fire with Israel in recent weeks, though the Lebanese government said it was urging Hezbollah to show restraint. ‘If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon,’ Nasrallah said, they ‘will regret it.’”
The New York Times reports on the reaction from Iran:
“Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a statement blaming the attack on Iran’s ‘malicious and criminal enemies,’ but stopped short of naming any group or country. Mr. Khamenei vowed that Iran’s enemies should know that ‘this tragedy will have a strong response.’
“While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, seemed to blame the country’s archrivals, the United States and Israel. ‘We tell the criminal America and Zionist regime that you will pay a very high price for the crimes you have committed and will regret it,’ he said.”
It is no secret that Netanyahu has long regarded Iran as an “existential threat” to Israel and opposed the multilateral deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which was designed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons (an agreement that US President Trump unilaterally abrogated in 2017). Netanyahu has supported a military action against Iran for a long time and he regards Iran as the main supporter of Hamas, something which is unquestionably true. And earlier this year. Fox News reported that Israel was preparing for an attack to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities:
“Israel will prepare for possible action against Iran’s nuclear facilities after a series of secret meetings between the prime minister and leaders from the defense and intelligence ministries, according to a leaked report.
“‘Israel will not allow Iran to become nuclear,’ Brigadier-General (Reserves) Amir Avivi, founder and chairman of the Israeli Defense Security Forum, told Fox News Digital. ‘As we are witnessing the continued unhindered progress of the Iranian military nuclear program with weapons-grade enrichment, Israel is readying its credible military option.’
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held five meetings with his defense and intelligence chiefs, as well as the head of Mossad, to discuss the possible attack, local news outlet Channel 12 reported. The report did not name any source, and The Times of Israel speculated that officials could have leaked the report in order to make clear the country’s resolve and intent.”
It is not clear why Netanyahu would want to attack Iran at this particular point in time given the current action in the Gaza which is already straining the Israeli economy. But it could be that Netanyahu thinks that his current abysmal standing in the opinion polls in Israel could be bolstered by a successful attack on Iran and might ultimately vindicate his hawkish policies. Moreover, it is not clear to me that either Hezbollah or Iran would want to engage in open conflict with Israel. But both of those parties are now in a very difficult position given the atrocities that are occurring in the Gaza.
If my paranoid fears turn out to be true (and I don’t think I’ve ever wanted to be proven so wrong), the US should wash its hands of Israeli military action. Under no circumstances should the US come to the aid of Israel in a war against Iran, no matter what provocations are assumed to be Iranian-inspired.
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I’m with you on the fact that Netanyahu has personal and political reasons for wanting to maintain an ongoing war and project an image of strength at the expense of real national security. Those concerns are horrific. However, I haven’t read anything in any paper that would suggest the Israeli defense establishment has a reason to want to risk being drawn into a direct war with Iran at this time… while fighting Hamas and Hezbollah and experiencing IDF casualties. Israel’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear capabilities are nothing new and other regional countries have reasons to be afraid of what Iran could do. (Though I agree that Israel would be the most concerned right now).
From an article on 1/3 in The Guardian:
“In Washington, officials have been pointing towards the possible role of Islamic State or some affiliated Sunni extremist group, and away from the partnership of Israel and the secular Iranian rebel group, the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MeK), who have reportedly been behind previous attacks deep inside Iran.” … Those earlier attacks have mostly been targeted assassinations, often on scientists, or acts of sabotage. Wednesday’s bombing in Kerman does not fit the pattern, US and UK officials argue. It was aimed at mourners marking the fourth anniversary of the US drone killing of Qassem Suleimani, a commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and arch-foe of Israel and US – but the attack was a horrifically blunt instrument, leaving scores of civilians among the dead, so it would be a remarkable departure for MeK and the Mossad.”
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Thank you Vinnie.
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You make excellent points. I agree that two bombs, remotely denotated in a crowd is definitely not consistent with Israeli military policies and there are several Sunni extremist groups that would like to make a statement on the anniversary of Suleimani’s death. But even though Khamenei did not identify Israel in his statement, Raisi did.
Unfortunately, the truth may not be that relevant to those in Iran who want to take a strong stand against the Israeli action in Gaza. I speak specifically of elements within the Revolutionary Guard. Moreover, the sense I get from the Palestinian websites is that the overwhelming sentiment is that Israel is behind the attacks, including those I didn’t mention such as the Iranian general killed in Syria, as well as the apparent coordination with the Houthis in Yemen.
Whether truth or perception wins out in this episode remains to be seen. But there are also many other variables in play in this wretched war.
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There are those who will say the USA is behind anything Israel does. It is a horrible and tragic situation fueled by religious hate with no peaceful end in site.
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Islamic State claims responsibility for suicide bombings that killed dozens in Iran
https://www.npr.org/2024/01/04/1222880931/islamic-state-claims-responsibility-iran-suicide-bombings
Raisi will probably not admit it despite this.
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Thanks for the update. We’ll see how Iran and Hezbollah respond to this information.
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